Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday, November 2nd, 11:00am CT, FS1

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#101      
Dkayak
Our #24 ranking is the result of polling 62 sports writers and broadcasters.

The betting line is simply what’s required to balance out bets on each side, effectively a poll of many thousands of retail betters. While the opening line represents what Vegas expects will draw equal numbers on each side, it gets tweaked to keep things balanced.

Our ranking reflects who informed “experts” think is the better team overall (in any matchup). The spread reflects what the betting public thinks will occur in a specific matchup. I’ll agree with @ChiefGritty . It’s a toss up and we can tilt things in our favor with a boisterous home crowd.
 
#102      
Illinir1
New Creation said:
View attachment 37015

We are officially underdogs now this Saturday…..

I know I know. I over reacted to this past weekend right? Well… what are your thoughts now?
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Being underdogs is nothing new to this team. They've been favored in three of their eight games (Eastern Ill, Central Mich, Purdue), yet they have six wins. Expect a bounceback performance, like after the near disaster Purdue game.
 
#103      
New Creation
Illinijoe said:
The Oregon game score is completely irrelevant. I’m glad most of the media gets that versus our own fanbase (hence why we are still ranked). We also need to remind our fanbase we are now ranked 7 weeks in a row, the most since 2001. It’s simple, Bielema has done such a good job here that we have people thinking 9-10 wins is a possibility. In the end, it would feel awful to only get 7 now but sometimes we forget what times were like for so many years. Just an absolute incredible job by Bielema.
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The score isn’t the issue, with me anyway. It’s how it got to that score. I think we got extremely gifted with the overall schedule this year. If we win out I’ll eat crow. But there are some very troubling trends that are beginning to show. Just hoping that this that a repeat of how last 6-1 start finished down the stretch…
 
#104      
GrayGhost77
New Creation said:
The score isn’t the issue, with me anyway. It’s how it got to that score. I think we got extremely gifted with the overall schedule this year. If we win out I’ll eat crow. But there are some very troubling trends that are beginning to show. Just hoping that this that a repeat of how last 6-1 start finished down the stretch…
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We were literally the first team to ever start 6-0 and finish 0-6 (and we might still be the only one). Chances of that happening again are vanishingly small.
 
#107      
New Creation
GrayGhost77 said:
We were literally the first team to ever start 6-0 and finish 0-6 (and we might still be the only one). Chances of that happening again are vanishingly small.
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hey, its 26 years of being an illini fan ( since sophmore year of highschool ) that has cause this serious PTSD. When it comes to football, what can go wrong has gone wrong. In this case, I hope I am completely wrong.
 
#109      
Serious Late
Dkayak said:
Our #24 ranking is the result of polling 62 sports writers and broadcasters.

The betting line is simply what’s required to balance out bets on each side, effectively a poll of many thousands of retail betters. While the opening line represents what Vegas expects will draw equal numbers on each side, it gets tweaked to keep things balanced.

Our ranking reflects who informed “experts” think is the better team overall (in any matchup). The spread reflects what the betting public thinks will occur in a specific matchup. I’ll agree with @ChiefGritty . It’s a toss up and we can tilt things in our favor with a boisterous home crowd.
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This is still inaccurate. Betting lines have 0% to do with the amount of money bet into retail shops. They are set by sharp books (i.e. Pinnacle/Circa/etc) generating fairly accurate lines put together by sophisticated models. Lines are then adjusted by either a) bettors with better models betting into them, or b) new information adjusting models.

If this board accumulated $1 million to go randomly bet into a rec book like espnbet, we might move espnbet's line for a short period of time. Then everyone with better models, or people who simply notice that Pinnacle doesn't move, will go bet the other side and ESPNBet would be forced back to the original number.

The good news is, we did get some buyback overnight. The -3 got hammered all the way through the pick'em though. That is never a good sign, but it's still early.
Screenshot_20241028_111502_Chrome.jpg
 
#110      
Birdus
aaeismacgychel said:
How is Minnesota a trap game? It's probably the toughest game remaining on the schedule and we're coming off a blowout loss... Not sure we have a conventional trap game left where we're looking ahead a week and overlook an opponent. The closest one in my opinion would be Northwestern if we somehow made it to 9-2 as there'd be a bunch of possible playoff talk taking away focus from that game. Other than that, I have a difficult time seeing us overlook anyone.
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Our playoff chances are pretty much gone.
 
#111      
New Creation
JKR said:
I have no idea what this gambling stuff means. Could you explain these numbers? Thanks.
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so noramlly the home team is given at least a 3 point edge when it comes to who vegas thinks will win. So vegas ( mgm ) believe that minny has a chance to beat us by 2 FGs or less than a TD favorite. Easiest break down, they believe that Minny is a better team than us, even on the road... I believe this is a combination of the 2nd half of purdue and the 1st half of Oregon. I would say, imho, that they believe we can't score with Minny because our D won't be able to keep them under 21 points and we wont score more than 17. ( for example )
 
#112      
Illiniam1984
Serious Late said:
This is still inaccurate. Betting lines have 0% to do with the amount of money bet into retail shops. They are set by sharp books (i.e. Pinnacle/Circa/etc) generating fairly accurate lines put together by sophisticated models. Lines are then adjusted by either a) bettors with better models betting into them, or b) new information adjusting models.

If this board accumulated $1 million to go randomly bet into a rec book like espnbet, we might move espnbet's line for a short period of time. Then everyone with better models, or people who simply notice that Pinnacle doesn't move, will go bet the other side and ESPNBet would be forced back to the original number.

The good news is, we did get some buyback overnight. The -3 got hammered all the way through the pick'em though. That is never a good sign, but it's still early. View attachment 37017
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I don’t put that much stock in the betting lines. Look at the Michigan game for example. The lines were totally wrong for that game. 😉 It really comes down to which team shows up, etc.
 
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#113      
Serious Late
Illiniam1984 said:
I put that much stock in the betting lines. Look at the Michigan game for example. 😉 It really comes down to which team shows up, etc.
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No one on this Earth can predict the future, my man! But no human, with their own eyeballs, is going to outperform the market as a whole over time. It's beatable, just not in the way people try to apply it here. Hot takes get destroyed long term in betting markets.
 
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#114      
Illinijoe
New Creation said:
The score isn’t the issue, with me anyway. It’s how it got to that score. I think we got extremely gifted with the overall schedule this year. If we win out I’ll eat crow. But there are some very troubling trends that are beginning to show. Just hoping that this that a repeat of how last 6-1 start finished down the stretch…
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I don’t disagree. However, putting it into perspective we are well ahead of where we’ve been for the last 15 years. There’s no doubt the advanced stats have us closer to 40-50 but again, much better than some of the football we’ve seen. To me, 8-4 is wildly successful relative to the rest of the years, yet still may come across as disappointing given the 6-1 start.
 
#115      
ChiefGritty
Huh, it has flipped to Minny -2.5

They always used to say to ignore online Sunday lines and wait for the Monday open in Vegas. I figured that was archaic information that didn't reflect the new gambling world, but in this case not.

A top 25 team as a home underdog to an unranked conference opponent is a rarity.
 
#116      
aaeismacgychel
Birdus said:
Our playoff chances are pretty much gone.
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People say things like this every season to 2 loss teams with a month of the season to go, but historically, over 80% of 2 loss major conference teams have made the Top 12 in the final CFP poll. And the reason is that other teams lose games you don't expect. Every season on average, less than 12 teams finish with 2 losses or less. So for a major conference 10-2 team to get left out, it's almost always because a 3 loss team was selected over them. So chances aren't gone yet, but you do have to win your next 4 games.

Historic odds of making the CFP as a 10-2 major conference team:
Top 12 team in CFP: 83%
Out of Top 12 CFP because 3 loss team takes spot: 13%
Out of Top 12 CFP because more than 12 2 loss teams: 4%

Point is, just win, and you have a shot. Lose and you don't, simple as that
 
#117      
illiniE
aaeismacgychel said:
People say things like this every season to 2 loss teams with a month of the season to go, but historically, over 80% of 2 loss major conference teams have made the Top 12 in the final CFP poll. And the reason is that other teams lose games you don't expect. Every season on average, less than 12 teams finish with 2 losses or less. So for a major conference 10-2 team to get left out, it's almost always because a 3 loss team was selected over them. So chances aren't gone yet, but you do have to win your next 4 games.

Historic odds of making the CFP as a 10-2 major conference team:
Top 12 team in CFP: 83%
Out of Top 12 CFP because 3 loss team takes spot: 13%
Out of Top 12 CFP because more than 12 2 loss teams: 4%

Point is, just win, and you have a shot. Lose and you don't, simple as that
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Plus if Oregon and Penn State keep winning it would help our playoff case at 10-2.
 
#118      
ChiefGritty
aaeismacgychel said:
People say things like this every season to 2 loss teams with a month of the season to go, but historically, over 80% of 2 loss major conference teams have made the Top 12 in the final CFP poll. And the reason is that other teams lose games you don't expect. Every season on average, less than 12 teams finish with 2 losses or less. So for a major conference 10-2 team to get left out, it's almost always because a 3 loss team was selected over them. So chances aren't gone yet, but you do have to win your next 4 games.

Historic odds of making the CFP as a 10-2 major conference team:
Top 12 team in CFP: 83%
Out of Top 12 CFP because 3 loss team takes spot: 13%
Out of Top 12 CFP because more than 12 2 loss teams: 4%

Point is, just win, and you have a shot. Lose and you don't, simple as that
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With the new conference structure and never having seen a CFP ranking in the 12 team era it's hard to know exactly what the standards are going to look like, but I think it can be said beyond any doubt that we would be at least heavily in the conversation for a playoff spot at 10-2.
 
#119      
aaeismacgychel
ChiefGritty said:
Huh, it has flipped to Minny -2.5

They always used to say to ignore online Sunday lines and wait for the Monday open in Vegas. I figured that was archaic information that didn't reflect the new gambling world, but in this case not.

A top 25 team as a home underdog to an unranked conference opponent is a rarity.
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Minnesota playing well right now, and Illinois injury issues along with statistically worse underlying numbers, so I can understand the swing especially if there is a belief that Bryant and are secondary won't be healthy, but yeah, basically saying Minnesota is 6pts better than us on a neutral field seems questionable and an immediate 5pt line swing against a home team is definitely interesting. Usually you don't see much of that
 
#120      
aaeismacgychel
ChiefGritty said:
With the new conference structure and never having seen a CFP ranking in the 12 team it's hard to know exactly what the standards are going to look like, but I think it can be said beyond any doubt that we would be at least heavily in the conversation for a playoff spot at 10-2.
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Granted, but it's the data we have at this time. It'll be interesting to see if the committee biases more 3 loss major conference teams in the Top 12. I can certainly see that happening, but it'd likely be at the expense of other major conference 2 loss teams, so it's sort of a steal from Peter to pay Paul thing. As such, I'd be surprised if anything more than 1 additional 3 loss team makes the playoff on average each year even if they are a brand name. Time will tell though for sure. But yeah, if you're a 10-2 team from a major conference, you're 100% in the CFP conversation. You may not get in, but you're definitely 1 of the 16 or so teams on their short list getting serious discussion
 
#121      
fatt lacosse
illiniE said:
Plus if Oregon and Penn State keep winning it would help our playoff case at 10-2.
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they won't put 5 big ten teams in the playoff

we would need oregon and penn state to win out and probably for ohio state to lose at least one if not two more games to have a shot.

the only way we have a guarantee is if PSU/Oregon win out, IU and OSU each finish with 3 losses and we win out.

we're back to that 2019 division title math. it's not happening
 
#122      
Fighter of the Nightman
Really hope the crowd still shows up in big numbers (IIRC, the sellout tracker was above 54k already ... so a "bad" crowd visually would mean a LOT of no-shows). I doubt our fans would get too bummed out because of a loss at #1, but you never know. Weather right now in Champaign looks like your prototypical crisp fall Big Ten football game, so hopefully we have that still going for us!

I know it's an 11:00 am game and all, but we will need another great crowd in this one. It's probably unrealistic to expect the home field advantage we had vs. KU or Michigan, but the guys are likely in for a tough game, and they will need our support!
 
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