Pregame: Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday, November 2nd, 11:00am CT, FS1

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#152      
Illiniam1984
Dkayak said:
Even if he’s fine and already cleared, we shouldn’t expect that to become public knowledge. Good opportunity to keep ‘em guessing. We have no obligation to tell anyone who’s starting.
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GIF by Star Wars
 
#153      
Illini2010-11
Serious Late said:
Data inputs drive everything. Sportsbooks collect data on users ability to more accurately predict the close of markets than they do. Sharp books accept the wagers of those bettors who can beat the lines and move their lines accordingly when bet into. Recreational books (FD, DK, MGM, etc) kick those bettors out instead, and they move their lines based on what the sharp books do.

It has nothing to do with "anyone" betting into them, and everything to do with who is betting into them.

I'm sorry, I know this is off topic. People keep saying this same thing, that it has to do with getting 50% of the action on each side. It tends to work out that way when the line is efficient, but these are inefficient markets. Inefficient and useless are different things though, it's still a far better metric than the collection voices claiming a line is great when they think it's good and meaningless when they don't. 😁
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In recent years, the lines have gotten much more stable. Sure sharp bettors have swayed the lines to some extent, but the major shocks to the line tend to be the injury reports (after open) or some extention of that.
 
#154      
Serious Late
Illini2010-11 said:
In recent years, the lines have gotten much more stable. Sure sharp bettors have swayed the lines to some extent, but the major shocks to the line tend to be the injury reports (after open) or some extention of that.
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To the extent one can quantify the percentage of line movements related to betting action vs. information, I can't speak to. But every single week, most lines are impacted one way or another based on behavior by respected bettors. College Football mainlines certainly remain exploitable.
 
#156      
Illini2010-11
Serious Late said:
To the extent one can quantify the percentage of line movements related to betting action vs. information, I can't speak to. But every single week, most lines are impacted one way or another based on behavior by respected bettors. College Football mainlines certainly remain exploitable.
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This is absolutely true. These sharp bettors have more information or quicker access to it than the general public. This is slowly starting to fade away (probably why some of the sharp moves have mitigated a bit in recent years), but it is still very expoitable at the moment, nonetheless.
 
#157      
BZuppke
As to playoffs - watching us this year I’m excited to see we’re a well coached and very good team. That being said our lines are not championship caliber nor are our running backs. We should be thrilled with 8 plus wins.
 
#158      
skyIdub
Serious Late said:
To the extent one can quantify the percentage of line movements related to betting action vs. information, I can't speak to. But every single week, most lines are impacted one way or another based on behavior by respected bettors. College Football mainlines certainly remain exploitable.
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9:20 pm
User name checks out.
 
#159      
Brosky
If we can get to 8 wins with this team, that's success. It all starts with a good Minny team Saturday. We MUST win our winnable home games. We did it to Michigan, we can do it to the Gophers. If Bryant can't play, I hope Elzy shows up.
 
#160      
IlliniInBuckeyeState
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Just as a reminder to everyone RE: the crowds, getting in the mid-50s effectively gives us a "sold out" environment ... so that should always be the new baseline goal with this growth in attendance. The difference in visuals is actually fairly crazy. Pretty much, it seems once we get over 50k, almost all of that extra attendance goes directly toward filling out the upper deck and avoiding those somewhat embarrassing empty spots. Thankfully, it looks like we are already there for the Minnesota game.

49,099 vs. Penn State (2023)
View attachment 37021

56,092 vs. Michigan State State (2022)
View attachment 37022
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Great reminder and that difference is stark. Also, wow, that Penn State crowd is way sorrier than I remember...hard to believe we couldn't draw a bigger crowd for what was, at the time, a huge game.

One thing I'd offer for consideration: I know you've made the assertion that attendance of 55-56k is the threshold for "looking" like a sellout. Your photo from the 2022 Michigan State game illustrates that well. However, if I recall, the ticket availability pattern for that Michigan State game was much different than what we typically see for games these last two seasons. Basically, there were more tickets showing available in the upper rows of the East Balcony for 2022 MSU, and some people bought those seats and decided to sit there. They also did a week-of-the-game flash sale of $15 per ticket which really drove sales in the East Balcony. (I remember people being kind of ticked that they bought a more expensive ticket a few weeks before, only to get undercut the week of the game. The DIA basically said they aren't going to do that anymore - people need to get in the habit of buying their tickets well in advance if they want the best price.)

These days, the DIA is stingier about making the upper row tickets available until they absolutely need to. They are more concerned with maximizing revenue vs having the optics of a sellout, and selling an East Main ticket in row 60 is going to be a higher value to the DIA than row 30 of the East Balcony.

All this to say, I think your assertion of optical sellouts beginning at around the 56k mark is generally correct, but Michigan State 2022 probably isn't the best proxy. Go look at the East Balcony for 2024 Purdue (55,815) and it looks nothing like that picture above.
 
#161      
Marshall_Lucky
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
Great reminder and that difference is stark. Also, wow, that Penn State crowd is way sorrier than I remember...hard to believe we couldn't draw a bigger crowd for what was, at the time, a huge game.

One thing I'd offer for consideration: I know you've made the assertion that attendance of 55-56k is the threshold for "looking" like a sellout. Your photo from the 2022 Michigan State game illustrates that well. However, if I recall, the ticket availability pattern for that Michigan State game was much different than what we typically see for games these last two seasons. Basically, there were more tickets showing available in the upper rows of the East Balcony for 2022 MSU, and some people bought those seats and decided to sit there. They also did a week-of-the-game flash sale of $15 per ticket which really drove sales in the East Balcony. (I remember people being kind of ticked that they bought a more expensive ticket a few weeks before, only to get undercut the week of the game. The DIA basically said they aren't going to do that anymore - people need to get in the habit of buying their tickets well in advance if they want the best price.)

These days, the DIA is stingier about making the upper row tickets available until they absolutely need to. They are more concerned with maximizing revenue vs having the optics of a sellout, and selling an East Main ticket in row 60 is going to be a higher value to the DIA than row 30 of the East Balcony.

All this to say, I think your assertion of optical sellouts beginning at around the 56k mark is generally correct, but Michigan State 2022 probably isn't the best proxy. Go look at the East Balcony for 2024 Purdue (55,815) and it looks nothing like that picture above.
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Also, while this is probably self-evident, the relationship of sold tickets to butts in seats is not constant from game to game. Weather, past game performance, all kinds of stuff
 
#162      
altgeld88
BZuppke said:
As to playoffs - watching us this year I’m excited to see we’re a well coached and very good team. That being said our lines are not championship caliber nor are our running backs. We should be thrilled with 8 plus wins.
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Apart from you, IIRC nearly all of us were debating where in the 4-8 to 7-5 range the probable outcome for this season existed. Tt seemed to center between those who saw 6-6 as attainable and those who didn't.

Sitting at 6-2 in late October, having lost only to the #1 and #3 teams nationally (and that latter loss was very close) is astonishing given the team's limitations.

BTW, I attended an ACC game last Saturday between two upper-tier teams. The entire time I kept thinking how fortunate we are to have the QB-WR combo of Luke, Pat and Zakhari. I hope Pat recovers asap.
 
#163      
RockfordIllini
BZuppke said:
As to playoffs - watching us this year I’m excited to see we’re a well coached and very good team. That being said our lines are not championship caliber nor are our running backs. We should be thrilled with 8 plus wins.
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Agreed. Pre Oregon game I know playoffs were technically possible and I suppose they still are. But in my mind (and maybe this is because I’m still in a 4 team playoff state of mind) playoffs are for national title contenders, and the PSU and Oregon games showed that we aren’t at that level.

I think we are at the “nice little team” level that Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota etc have all hit at various points the last 10-15 years winning 8-9 games. Which is fantastic! If we win 9 games this year I will be over the moon.
 
#164      
altgeld88
RockfordIllini said:
Agreed. Pre Oregon game I know playoffs were technically possible and I suppose they still are. But in my mind (and maybe this is because I’m still in a 4 team playoff state of mind) playoffs are for national title contenders, and the PSU and Oregon games showed that we aren’t at that level.

I think we are at the “nice little team” level that Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota etc have all hit at various points the last 10-15 years winning 8-9 games. Which is fantastic! If we win 9 games this year I will be over the moon.
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The PSU game indicated to me that PSU isn't at that level, either. I remain baffled that they're ranked in the Top 5. Seems to me that #10 is where they most appropriately should reside.
 
#165      
Illini2010-11
altgeld88 said:
The PSU game indicated to me that PSU isn't at that level, either. I remain baffled that they're ranked in the Top 5. Seems to me that #10 is where they most appropriately should reside.
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Considering they are undefeated and started season at #8, of course it is no surprise for them to be top 5 at this point. We will know more about them on Saturday, but until they lose, they will not drop out of top 5.
 
#166      
redwingillini11
I get that there is cause for concern for this game. But Minnesota being favored by 3 is simply disrespectful. Take those points and the moneyline if you are in a state where you can do so. Hopefully the underdog status is a proper chip on the shoulder the team can use.
 
#167      
jjv0004
altgeld88 said:
Apart from you, IIRC nearly all of us were debating where in the 4-8 to 7-5 range the probable outcome for this season existed. Tt seemed to center between those who saw 6-6 as attainable and those who didn't.

Sitting at 6-2 in late October, having lost only to the #1 and #3 teams nationally (and that latter loss was very close) is astonishing given the team's limitations.

BTW, I attended an ACC game last Saturday between two upper-tier teams. The entire time I kept thinking how fortunate we are to have the QB-WR combo of Luke, Pat and Zakhari. I hope Pat recovers asap.
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Penn State is so completely overrated. As is James Franklin. One of the most overrated coaches ever.
 
#168      
gary?
minnesota is the favorite because they have looked consistently better than us this year, although that unc loss at home looks worse and worse as the season progresses. (and even then they had a chance at a game winning fg as time expired.)

i see them winning by 10-14. i hope i am wrong, but i think we're looking at a 7- to 8-win season, either of which i would've taken 10 times out of 10 at the start of this or most any season.
 
#170      
Birdus
Illini2010-11 said:
Considering they are undefeated and started season at #8, of course it is no surprise for them to be top 5 at this point. We will know more about them on Saturday, but until they lose, they will not drop out of top 5.
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There are going to be a lot of disgruntled P. State fans again after this weekend.
 
#172      
CMC
I saw a lot of comments here and on Reddit calling the 23 point line last weekend disrespectful also.
 
#173      
ptgrd23
Minnesota is dangerous but they don't have Oregon level athletes. Home crowd, give Luke time to pass, get Josh rolling and I like our chances. Only quality win is USC. Home field advantage should get us the win assuming we play an average game with only 1 turnover. I am confident are team will be motivated to redeem themselves after disaster in Oregon.

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#174      
Gregjacksonfan
gary? said:
minnesota is the favorite because they have looked consistently better than us this year, although that unc loss at home looks worse and worse as the season progresses. (and even then they had a chance at a game winning fg as time expired.)

i see them winning by 10-14. i hope i am wrong, but i think we're looking at a 7- to 8-win season, either of which i would've taken 10 times out of 10 at the start of this or most any season.
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They lost to an average NC team, lost to Michigan, got blown out by Iowa and barely beat a bad UCLA team. I wouldn’t say that they have consistently looked better than us
 
#175      
Illini2010-11
Gregjacksonfan said:
They lost to an average NC team, lost to Michigan, got blown out by Iowa and barely beat a bad UCLA team. I wouldn’t say that they have consistently looked better than us
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Based on some of these comments, I am going to assume that they have not actually watched Minnesota play. They have looked competent in wins against rather mediocre teams, and pretty bad in their losses. Rhode Island is the only team they beat that have a current winning record.

This will be a close game, but why people insist Minnesota is so much better are likely biasing their view of this team based on 2nd half Purdue and last week, and not the entire body of work.
 
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