Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

#26      
Simeon Rice
lstewart53x3 said:
Recruiting rankings are of course a data point, but they aren’t the full picture.
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They're not just a data point. Sure, you'll always find an exception. But look at those programs who have accumulated the most 'rated' talent over the past 4-5 years and look at what they've accomplished. They are heavily correlated...it's not random.

Take any comparative set:
- Top 10 vs. 10-20
- Top 20 vs. 20-40
- Top 30 vs. 30-60

You're consistently better off (aside from a rare exception) with the higher ranked players

Heck, just look at the conference rankings. The programs that consistently recruit in the top half (UM, OSU, PSU, OU, USC, etc.) also consistently perform better (outside of rare exception) than those in the bottom (IU, NW, UI, PU, etc.)

Rankings matter
 
#27      
therealmiket86
Ander1345 said:
The vast majority of college recruits are 3 stars. Don't read into it too much. Would like more recruits but recruiting is very muchba "see what sticks" process.
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Not enough players are rated as 4 stars and way too many are given 3 stars. I can’t remember the last time a recruit committed to a p4 program as was a 2 star
 
#29      
lstewart53x3
Simeon Rice said:
They're not just a data point. Sure, you'll always find an exception. But look at those programs who have accumulated the most 'rated' talent over the past 4-5 years and look at what they've accomplished. They are heavily correlated...it's not random.

Take any comparative set:
- Top 10 vs. 10-20
- Top 20 vs. 20-40
- Top 30 vs. 30-60

You're consistently better off (aside from a rare exception) with the higher ranked players

Heck, just look at the conference rankings. The programs that consistently recruit in the top half (UM, OSU, PSU, OU, USC, etc.) also consistently perform better (outside of rare exception) than those in the bottom (IU, NW, UI, PU, etc.)

Rankings matter
Click to expand...
Of course landing good players matters. It matters a lot.

Recruits are just no longer evaluated at the same level they used to be.

Can we agree on that?
 
#31      
Simeon Rice
lstewart53x3 said:
Of course landing good players matters. It matters a lot.

Recruits are just no longer evaluated at the same level they used to be.

Can we agree on that?
Click to expand...

I don't think I'd buy into that either. I don't have the specific data, but I would presume the staffs at the recruiting sites are larger than they were before. At one point, it was just Rivals and Scout. Now, it's Rivals, 247, espn, on3. Now, there's all sorts of Hudl video that wasn't available before. There's still a ton of camps for recruits to show their skills. The staffs at colleges are so much bigger than they have in the past. Recruiting has become a huge business

The only thing that you can argue has changed is that star inflation is very much in effect. There are no 2* recruits anymore so the 3* bucket has grown, but it is also combatted by Rivals RR rating, 247 0.XXXX ratings, etc.

But, regardless of which system is used, the teams that get the best rated talent tends to win more games than those that don't. Hence, ratings matter. So, when we rank somewhere between #14-#18 in the conference it's not because it's some randomness, it's because the other coaches in the conference are doing a better job closing on top talent than we are. Our in-state recruiting is evidence that this is not really even debatable
 
#32      
lstewart53x3
Simeon Rice said:
I don't think I'd buy into that either. I don't have the specific data, but I would presume the staffs at the recruiting sites are larger than they were before. At one point, it was just Rivals and Scout. Now, it's Rivals, 247, espn, on3. Now, there's all sorts of Hudl video that wasn't available before. There's still a ton of camps for recruits to show their skills. The staffs at colleges are so much bigger than they have in the past. Recruiting has become a huge business

The only thing that you can argue has changed is that star inflation is very much in effect. There are no 2* recruits anymore so the 3* bucket has grown, but it is also combatted by Rivals RR rating, 247 0.XXXX ratings, etc.

But, regardless of which system is used, the teams that get the best rated talent tends to win more games than those that don't. Hence, ratings matter. So, when we rank somewhere between #14-#18 in the conference it's not because it's some randomness, it's because the other coaches in the conference are doing a better job closing on top talent than we are. Our in-state recruiting is evidence that this is not really even debatable
Click to expand...
Rating inflation is just one aspect of it.

Here’s the other aspect, from an Illiniboard.com article.

Individual player ratings from 247 for players in our 2014 class: 70, 76, 77, 78, 78, 79, 79, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 85, 88, 91, 96.

Individual player ratings from 247 for our 2024 class: 82, 85, 85, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 87, 87, 88, 88, 88, 88, 88

10 years ago, there was a 26 point spread between our bottom recruit and our top recruit. This past year, the spread was just 6 points.

Recruits simply aren’t evaluated at the same level they used to be.

Take Joe Barna for example. Offers from Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Kansas, etc. As a true freshman, he’ll likely get snaps in his second ever game against #19 Kansas.

247 had him the 35th ranked recruit in Illinois just ahead of a kid going to Buffalo and another going to Eastern Carolina. He’s an 86 point 3 star. His junior film got 3,387 views. His senior year film got 57 views.

Had he committed to Oklahoma, would he have still been an 86 point 3 star?

More on Joe Barna:

www.illiniboard.com

Looks Like University Of Illinois - Joe Barna

And now for one of those "why didn't anyone tell me?" LLUOI articles. It's a lazy Sunday afternoon, and we just finished working in the yard, and while my wife flips through Facebook while watching The Office I'm sitting here watching some Hudl film of Joe Barna and wondering why
www.illiniboard.com www.illiniboard.com

Rankings are still important. Especially on those top 200-300 recruits who are truly evaluated. Beyond that though is a bunch of recruits in the 82-88 range who haven’t been properly evaluated. And more important than pure rankings is fit, system, scheme, development, continuity, etc.

Kansas is currently ranked 19th in the nation. Some have them as having an outside shot at the playoffs this year. They’re on pace to make a bowl for the 3rd straight time.

Their 247 recruiting rankings past 5 years:

2023: 63
2022: 67
2021: 63
2020: 60
2019: 70
 
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#43      
Indy Illini Fan
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