I think Illinois at 10-2 would have very little shot at the Playoff unless like a ton of teams lost.
Teams lose every season, that's just what happens. For perspective as based off the CFP final week of regular season plus conf. Championship rankings these were the Top 12 playoff teams:
2023: 100% chance (5/5) a 10-2 is in Top12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 3/4/5/0teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2022: 100% chance (6/6) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 2/2/6/2teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2021: 86% chance (6/7) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/4/6/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2020:COVID
2019: 67% chance (6/9) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 3/1/6/2teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 3teams
2018: 80% chance (4/5) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 4/2/2/4teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2017: 100% chance (5/5) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/5/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2016: 75% chance (3/4) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/3/3/5teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2015: 72% chance (5/7) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/5/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 2teams
2014: 100% chance (2/2) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/2/4teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
TLDR:
-In the past 10 years, only 2 seasons had more than 12 teams from major conferences with 2 or less losses
-Odds of a 10-2 team making the CFP Top 12 based on the past 10 years:
84% (42/50)
-In past 10 seasons, only 8 10-2 teams from a major conference would have missed the CFP Top 12 playoffs, 6 because a 3loss major conference team would have been selected over them, 2 because there were 12 teams with 2 or less losses.
So in summary a 10-2 Illinois team would be very likely to get in based on historical data (84%)