ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I'm glad the advanced stats agree with my eye test that for all the bottomless pit seasons of my time as an active fan, 2012 was the worst of the worst.
Illini Football 2024
Updated video highlight compilations from this season (Michigan game added)
Passing Touchdowns (15)
Rushing Touchdowns (8)
Interceptions (8)
Sacks (13)
Forced Fumbles (8)
Key Passes (32)
Key Rushes (29)
Field Goals (12)
Passing Touchdowns (15) Rushing Touchdowns (8) Interceptions (8) Sacks (13) Forced Fumbles (8) Key Passes (32) Key Rushes (29) Field Goals (12)TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
11am FS1? The 2:30 games take the whole day, and night games the drive back stinks. For TV purposes I definitely understand why we'd want the 2:30 slot tho.
Krombopulos_Michael
- Aurora, Illinois (that’s a suburb of Chicago)
$$ article but listed as the 4th team out of the CFP with this week being the litmus test on this team’s viability (not that we all didn’t know that already)
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-playoff-2024-week-9-bubble-watch-predictions
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-playoff-2024-week-9-bubble-watch-predictions
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For Big Ten games only, these are the average viewers by network through the previous weekend (i.e., Illini/Michigan weekend has not been added).
CBS: 4.49 million average
- High of 6.3 million for #11 USC at #18 Michigan
- Low of 2.9 million for Wisconsin at #13 USC
NBC: 3.98 million average
- High of 9.6 million for #2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon
- Low of 1.3 million for Indiana at UCLA
FOX: 2.80 million average
- High of 4.2 million for #24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska (Friday night)
- Low of 1.5 million for #8 Oregon at UCLA (at 10:00 pm CST Saturday...)
FS1: 640k average
- High of 1.0 million for Rutgers at Nebraska
- Low of 378k for Northwestern at Washington
BTN: 617k average
- High of 1.1 million for Michigan State at Maryland/Eastern Washington at Washington
- Low of 312k for Minnesota at UCLA
Here are the Illini ratings so far, for context:
FOX
4.21 million for #24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska (Friday night)
NBC
3.09 million for #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State
CBS
[TBD] ... Michigan rating should be out tomorrow
BTN
112k for Eastern Illinois at Illinois (Thursday night)
FS1
841k for #19 Kansas at Illinois
440k for Purdue at #23 Illinois
CBS: 4.49 million average
- High of 6.3 million for #11 USC at #18 Michigan
- Low of 2.9 million for Wisconsin at #13 USC
NBC: 3.98 million average
- High of 9.6 million for #2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon
- Low of 1.3 million for Indiana at UCLA
FOX: 2.80 million average
- High of 4.2 million for #24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska (Friday night)
- Low of 1.5 million for #8 Oregon at UCLA (at 10:00 pm CST Saturday...)
FS1: 640k average
- High of 1.0 million for Rutgers at Nebraska
- Low of 378k for Northwestern at Washington
BTN: 617k average
- High of 1.1 million for Michigan State at Maryland/Eastern Washington at Washington
- Low of 312k for Minnesota at UCLA
Here are the Illini ratings so far, for context:
FOX
4.21 million for #24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska (Friday night)
NBC
3.09 million for #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State
CBS
[TBD] ... Michigan rating should be out tomorrow
BTN
112k for Eastern Illinois at Illinois (Thursday night)
FS1
841k for #19 Kansas at Illinois
440k for Purdue at #23 Illinois
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Also I have mentioned before that my very good friend's fiancé works at NBC ... and after she texted me to congratulate our Illini on defeating her alma mater (hint, hint!), I asked her for some intel on whether or not Illinois/Minnesota could get that primetime NBC slot.
She confirmed that there will be a Peacock game at 2:30 pm (so if Indiana/MSU is not at 11:00 am on FS1, it will be at 2:30 pm on Peacock), and they were briefed (as we all know) that Illini/Minnesota or Wisconsin/Iowa will be the night game on NBC. She said they didn't receive any indication of which one is more likely, but her exact words for the Illini were, "So, there's a pretty good chance!"
TL;DR
I have very little to share that we didn't already know.
However, we can eliminate a 2:30 pm NBC slot, as I think the network wants that time to showcase Peacock. Also, without any assurance, our friend at NBC certainly didn't act like it was any more likely for Wisconsin/Iowa to get that slot than for Illini/Minnesota. So, let's go shock Oregon!
She confirmed that there will be a Peacock game at 2:30 pm (so if Indiana/MSU is not at 11:00 am on FS1, it will be at 2:30 pm on Peacock), and they were briefed (as we all know) that Illini/Minnesota or Wisconsin/Iowa will be the night game on NBC. She said they didn't receive any indication of which one is more likely, but her exact words for the Illini were, "So, there's a pretty good chance!"
TL;DR
I have very little to share that we didn't already know.
However, we can eliminate a 2:30 pm NBC slot, as I think the network wants that time to showcase Peacock. Also, without any assurance, our friend at NBC certainly didn't act like it was any more likely for Wisconsin/Iowa to get that slot than for Illini/Minnesota. So, let's go shock Oregon!I'm going to assume our Penn State game on NBC beats the median viewership (as I'm guessing the average is skewed due to OSU/Oregon).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Especially worth considering that we were during the same window as Alabama/Georgia on ABC, which drew a ridiculous 12 million, lol.
They were talking about our season on BTN and their projection is if we finish 10-2 with a loss to Oregon (big big if obviously), that we will be a playoff team. That said, obviously there is a long long way to go, and every single one of our remaining games could trip us up, but hey, we've given ourselves a shot. Gotta do whatever we can to take advantage of it.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If we go 10-2, and just miss out on the playoffs, it will still be an exceptional program-building year. Crazy how we hit late October and a 9 win season would feel like somewhat of a disappointment, as it would mean the team tripped up in a winnable game. All four November games classify as very winnable/should be win games. That is a far change from the expectations going into the season. First and foremost, the goal has to be getting to 7-0 at home, and then taking the final two games one week at a time. 10 wins is possible, with 9 wins being most probable outcome. Still a foundational year after a very disappointing 2023 campaign.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Us (or Indiana) at 10-2 would be a pretty interesting test case for how the playoff committee is going to operate.
How much stomach do they have for letting in "deserving" cannon fodder over SEC teams everyone knows will create great games and have a legitimate chance to win the thing?
Because at least one or two of the very best teams in the country are going to be 9-3 in the SEC now. Tricky situation.
How much stomach do they have for letting in "deserving" cannon fodder over SEC teams everyone knows will create great games and have a legitimate chance to win the thing?
Because at least one or two of the very best teams in the country are going to be 9-3 in the SEC now. Tricky situation.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Indiana at 10-2 would easily get set aside to a superior 9-3 SEC team, nothing tricky about that. IU has dominated everyone on their schedule to this point, but it would mean that they tripped up against a team around the bowl bubble or worse, and their SOS has been terrible (might be second guessing their ultra weak non-conference schedule). Indiana would feel much better at 10-0 going into Columbus, where a competitive loss, would mean that I think they would be in the situation of beat Purdue and in at 11-1.
A 10-2 Illini team vs 9-3 SEC team...that would definitely be a tricky situation, but one I would applaud, as it would mean Illinois handled business down the stretch.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It would depend on how it shakes out, sure. But part of IU dominating their schedule is Vegas and all the advanced stats believe Indiana is much better than us, and the committee isn't blind to that.
Kurtis Rourke is hurt, imagine they slip up this week, he comes back and they resume their reign of terror among the B1G middle class besides losing a close one at the Horseshoe. Again, the committee won't be blind to that (as is true of the basketball committee).
Illinois (maybe not Indiana) would be a double digit underdog to LSU or Ole Miss though.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
crazy statUpdated video highlight compilations from this season (Michigan game added)
our longest passing play all year is 42 yards
our longest running play all year is by Luke 37 yards, second longest is Arkin at 36
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Look at the schedule and think about the conference title games. A ton of teams are going to lose.
Notre Dame being good enough for a spot and the very high likelihood the ACC gets (at least) two spots definitely shrinks the bubble at the moment, though that can change.
Teams lose every season, that's just what happens. For perspective as based off the CFP final week of regular season plus conf. Championship rankings these were the Top 12 playoff teams:
2023: 100% chance (5/5) a 10-2 is in Top12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 3/4/5/0teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2022: 100% chance (6/6) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 2/2/6/2teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2021: 86% chance (6/7) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/4/6/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2020:COVID
2019: 67% chance (6/9) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 3/1/6/2teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 3teams
2018: 80% chance (4/5) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 4/2/2/4teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2017: 100% chance (5/5) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/5/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
2016: 75% chance (3/4) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/3/3/5teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 1teams
2015: 72% chance (5/7) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/5/1teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 2teams
2014: 100% chance (2/2) a 10-2 is in Top 12
CFP In: 0L/1L/2L/3L: 1/5/2/4teams
CFP Out, major Conf, 2L or less: 0teams
TLDR:
-In the past 10 years, only 2 seasons had more than 12 teams from major conferences with 2 or less losses
-Odds of a 10-2 team making the CFP Top 12 based on the past 10 years: 84% (42/50)
-In past 10 seasons, only 8 10-2 teams from a major conference would have missed the CFP Top 12 playoffs, 6 because a 3loss major conference team would have been selected over them, 2 because there were 12 teams with 2 or less losses.
So in summary a 10-2 Illinois team would be very likely to get in based on historical data (84%)
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It's a good call to pull that data from the final CFP rankings.
But the confounding variable here is that the biggest programs are now concentrated into fewer conferences, which are all playing divisionless 1 vs 2 championship games.
Which will tend to put more losses on the top SEC and B1G teams rather than less, though the fact that teams schedules miss more of their conference opponents also creates opportunity for more teams in those conferences to have limited losses.
And then the elephant in the room is that the SEC is just now so much stronger than any conference ever has been. (8 of the top 15 in SP+) It's going to put a lot of friction onto the system to leave out very obviously superior 9-3 SEC teams in the name of a fake conference parity.
And then also note that one non-P4 team is guaranteed a slot, so there are actually only 11 to go around for the top conferences.
I am on record as feeling that any playoff talk is premature at best and crazy at worst, but if we dare to dream of 10-2, how do you keep us out (vs. a 9-3 SEC team) when our only two losses are to other playoff teams (and likely highly-ranked playoff teams to boot)?
Edit: I guess Gritty has sort of answered that...would be so Illinois to fall into the 13-16 slot this year and then they expand the playoffs to 16 in a year or two.
Edit: I guess Gritty has sort of answered that...would be so Illinois to fall into the 13-16 slot this year and then they expand the playoffs to 16 in a year or two.
If Illinois finishes the season 10-2 (assuming losses to Penn St and Oregon), their only losses would be to the #1 and #2 teams in the country…
How do you make any sort of “judgment” off of that? At worst you could say they beat teams the should have, and surprised a couple. At best you could say there is no outstanding evidence to say that Illinois isn’t the #3 team in the country.
How do you make any sort of “judgment” off of that? At worst you could say they beat teams the should have, and surprised a couple. At best you could say there is no outstanding evidence to say that Illinois isn’t the #3 team in the country.
So that's the interesting part of this. I too think there are going to be more 3 loss teams at the expense of 2 loss teams as compared to historical, however the question is from where. One thing I might do is take a deep dive into what 2 loss teams were previously omitted in favor of 3 loss teams. My gut feel would be teams in weaker power conferences or with weaker schedules but we'll see. But the other factor in all of this that does seem historically relevant is that it's really difficult to finish with 2 or less losses in a major conference. In fact it's rare to get 12 of those such teams. So if 3 loss teams are getting in more frequently it will be at the expense of the few 2 loss teams there actually are. So maybe 1 extra 3 loss team? Maybe 2 at most?
To answer your other question, I have to go over it again, but in most if not all of those years, I did include the midmajor auto bid in the top 12, mainly because the top 12 already included 1 if those teams. That said your point does hold- you basically need to be a Top 11 major conference team.
Really though I think the main takeaway is we as fans every year think that the teams who make the NYE bowls or playoffs have better records than they historically do. You lose only 2 games, you make the Top 12 over 80% of the time because fact of the matter is, most teams choke it away or trip up, or run into a team that plays the game of their life.
The point is, just win. You do that at least 10 times, you're in. And for our Illini to do that it means showing up and playing our hearts out each game and hope that's enough