Illini Football 2024

#126      
IlliniFanAtEIU1953
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
As I listened to all the podcasts and shows following the win yesterday, I heard several comments about if we could potentially sell out the Minnesota and Michigan State games. So I know there is probably some interest in getting an early look at the Minnesota game ticket sales. (I'll start posting these updates to the Minnesota pregame thread once that gets created.)

First edition of the Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch for Minnesota:
Currently showing an estimated 53,483 tickets sold - that's more than I would have expected at this point. There are a couple assumption changes here that make that estimate less conservative that what I usually report:
1. The estimate I have for unsold tickets in sections 123 and 131, which often have large portions of the sections showing unavailable only to become available later on, has been reduced compared to what I was assuming earlier in the season. Those sections have not been having those large amounts of tickets become available, so I think it's fair to assume that trend will continue.
2. Similar to #1 above, sections 202 and 203 are showing about 800 less unsold tickets than what Purdue would have been showing at this time. That's because the top 15 rows or so of both sections showed as unavailable ahead of the Purdue game and never became available - even when the rest of the sections were sold out. It's probably a little aggressive then to assume the sections are nearly entirely sold out at this point, but again the lack of public information on these sections creates a challenge.

Regardless, I think this game has strong potential to break 55,000 and could threaten to be a second consecutive sellout.


View attachment 36876


I'd also like to take a moment to check in on my performance of guessing game attendance this season. Excluding the two sellouts this season, below are my results for the other three home games thus far. I have attendance guesses have a simple average difference from actual announced attendance of 44, and an average absolute value difference of 781.

View attachment 36878
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Someone can check my calculations, but if I'm right then this last game against Michigan was the 77th sellout in Memorial Stadium history and Red Grange's uniform number was 77, so I think that's cool that it happened to turn out that way.

Here's a link to the Fighting Illini football website where you can see the capacity crowds section for Memorial Stadium over the years the stadium has been in existence.

Link: https://fightingillini.com/sports/2016/8/18/football-attendance-records.aspx

I counted 75 sellouts before the two sellouts we had this year.
 
#130      
PizzaHutParkingLot
WyattEarp said:
My new favorite song 🎶
I’ve been listening to it on repeat all day. 🎧

Apparently this song (for reasons unknown) had become a victory anthem of sorts played at Michigan. Now that’s how ya 🧌 troll somebody; good work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847780541179056498
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Understand Captain America GIF
 
#131      
IlliniInBuckeyeState
IlliniFanAtEIU1953 said:
Someone can check my calculations, but if I'm right then this last game against Michigan was the 77th sellout in Memorial Stadium history and Red Grange's uniform number was 77, so I think that's cool that it happened to turn out that way.

Here's a link to the Fighting Illini football website where you can see the capacity crowds section for Memorial Stadium over the years the stadium has been in existence.

Link: https://fightingillini.com/sports/2016/8/18/football-attendance-records.aspx

I counted 75 sellouts before the two sellouts we had this year.
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I heard the same - Saturday was the 77th sellout in Memorial Stadium history. Serendipitous that it aligned with such a historic day.
 
#134      
ChiefGritty
TheFlyingIllini1317 said:
Hoping for an 11am
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Prepare for Peacock would be my advice.

Also, interesting to see a week where Fox very clearly got first pick, hasn't generally felt like the case very often, maybe their picks are saved up for later in the season (Michigan-OSU is already set for 11AM on Fox).
 
#135      
Illini2010-11
Mr. Tibbs said:
so $100 bet pays out $110 on the 5.5 o/u?

the 110 then is net of the vig ?

i’m not sure what 1=2.1 means
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The $100 pays out $210 total, so $110 winnings.

What you are seeing is decimal odds. It pretty much means take your bet on the left of equation (1) and outcome is to right (2.1). So a $100 bet gets an outcome of $210.

2.1 decimal odds equates to +110 that we traditionally see in the American market.

Edit: Not really sure why the OP put both +110 and payout of 1=2.1 in the same sentence when they mean the exact same thing.
 
#136      
Toews
ChiefGritty said:
Lol that is an INCREDIBLE insult to Indiana.
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Kind of just a weird situation because obviously OSU-PSU going to get priority and let's be honest Oregon-Michigan just a way bigger name. Since MSU doesn't want anymore primetime games (they would have probably been the NBC option) they kind of just fell to an odd tv slot.
 
#138      
Mr. Tibbs
thank you

the 2.1 payout (less the vig) is more than I thought.

I wonder what a bet of us winning 8 or 9 was paying in mid August
 
#139      
Mr. Tibbs
Toews said:
Kind of just a weird situation because obviously OSU-PSU going to get priority and let's be honest Oregon-Michigan just a way bigger name. Since MSU doesn't want anymore primetime games (they would have probably been the NBC option) they kind of just fell to an odd tv slot.
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where did you read that ? why?
 
#140      
Fighter of the Nightman
Dan said:
Minnesota game (Nov. 2nd): 11am or 2:30pm or 6:30pm. Welcome to November. Go Illini

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848409337942728719

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848409362273808470
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So per that tweet, if I am reading it correctly, these are the TV slots for that weekend that a Big Ten team (i.e., the Illini) could have:

11:00 am CST
FOX: Ohio State at Penn State
CBS: Air Force at Army
NBC: N/A (no morning games on NBC)
FS1: [OPEN]
BTN: Northwestern at Purdue
Peacock: [OPEN?? Unknown]

2:30 pm CST
FOX: Kansas State at Houston
CBS: Oregon at Michigan
NBC: [OPEN??] (Notre Dame bye week but no confirmation this will be an option)
FS1: Arizona at UCF
BTN: UCLA at Nebraska
Peacock: [Will stream NBC game]

6:30 pm CST
FOX: [Game 7 of World Series if needed]
CBS: N/A (no night games on CBS)
NBC: [OPEN]
FS1: Arizona State at Oklahoma State (6:00 pm CST)
BTN: USC at Washington
Peacock: [Will stream NBC game]

Games left to be scheduled:

Minnesota at Illinois (any time possible)
Wisconsin at Iowa (any time possible)
Indiana at Michigan State (11:00 am or 2:30 pm)

So ... if I have that correctly:

1. There are two confirmed time slots that WILL broadcast college football no matter what and will feature one of those three Big Ten games listed above - 6:30 pm on NBC and 11:00 am on FS1.
2. Of the three games listed, the most desirable one will get a 6:30 pm slot on NBC.
3. Indiana/MSU was eliminated as an option for primetime NBC. That slot will go to either Minnesota at Illinois or Wisconsin at Iowa.
4. It is unclear if NBC will use its 2:30 pm window for college football or not. If it does, you would think the second most desirable game would obviously go here.
5. The least desirable game will be on at 11:00 am - FS1 in a best case scenario and Peacock in a worst case scenario.

So after all that, it's pretty simple ... if the Illini score the upset in Eugene, we will 110% without a doubt be hosting Minnesota under the lights at Memorial Stadium on NBC. Simple as that, IMO. With that said, in the event of a hard-fought loss to Oregon where we look pretty good, we might want to root for the following between now and then...

1. Minnesota to beat Maryland at home this weekend. It would be a lot more interesting of a matchup if Minnesota is riding a 3-game winning streak and sitting at 5-3 when they come to town.
2. Penn State to demolish Wisconsin in Happy Valley this weekend. For one, we lost to PSU and do not play Wisconsin, so that is an obvious reason to want Wiscy to lose. In addition to that, though, NBC might not be so quick to broadcast the Badgers two weeks in a row if they lay an egg.
3. Northwestern to score an upset in Iowa City this weekend. Again, we play NU and not Iowa ... so there's an obvious reason. Also, though, a home loss to NU to send Iowa to 4-4 might legitimately derail their season and make an Iowa/Wisconsin matchup truly unappealing.

I think our goal here is to aim for that primetime NBC slot that can showcase Memorial Stadium under the lights, so I am not too concerned about what happens with Indiana and MSU between now and then.
 
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#142      
Illini2010-11
Mr. Tibbs said:
thank you

the 2.1 payout (less the vig) is more than I thought.

I wonder what a bet of us winning 8 or 9 was paying in mid August
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Don't know about the wins total at the end, but both Indiana and Illinois had 200-1 odds of making B1G Championship game. Imagine the craziness if both Indiana and Illinois met in the B1G champ game. Not sure how happy the books would be in that case.
 
#143      
Illiniam1984
Fighter of the Nightman said:
So per that tweet, if I am reading it correctly, these are the TV slots for that weekend that a Big Ten team (i.e., the Illini) could have:

11:00 am CST
FOX: Ohio State at Penn State
CBS: Air Force at Army
NBC: N/A (no morning games on NBC)
FS1: [OPEN]
BTN: Northwestern at Purdue
Peacock: [OPEN?? Unknown]

2:30 pm CST
FOX: Kansas State at Houston
CBS: Oregon at Michigan
NBC: [OPEN??] (Notre Dame bye week but no confirmation this will be an option)
FS1: Arizona at UCF
BTN: UCLA at Nebraska
Peacock: [Will stream NBC game]

6:30 pm CST
FOX: [Game 7 of World Series if needed]
CBS: N/A (no night games on CBS)
NBC: [OPEN]
FS1: Arizona State at Oklahoma State (6:00 pm CST)
BTN: USC at Washington
Peacock: [Will stream NBC game]

Games left to be scheduled:

Minnesota at Illinois (any time possible)
Wisconsin at Iowa (any time possible)
Indiana at Michigan State (11:00 am or 2:30 pm)

So ... if I have that correctly:

1. There are two confirmed time slots that WILL broadcast college football no matter what and will feature one of those three Big Ten games listed above - 6:30 pm on NBC and 11:00 am on FS1.
2. Of the three games listed, the most desirable one will get a 6:30 pm slot on NBC.
3. Indiana/MSU was eliminated as an option for primetime NBC. That slot will go to either Minnesota at Illinois or Wisconsin at Iowa.
4. It is unclear if NBC will use its 2:30 pm window for college football or not. If it does, you would think the second most desirable game would obviously go here.
5. The least desirable game will be on at 11:00 am - FS1 in a best case scenario and Peacock in a worst case scenario.

So after all that, it's pretty simple ... if the Illini score the upset in Eugene, we will 110% without a doubt be hosting Minnesota under the lights at Memorial Stadium on NBC. Simple as that, IMO. With that said, in the event of a hard-fought loss to Oregon where we look pretty good, we might want to root for the following between now and then...

1. Minnesota to beat Maryland at home this weekend. It would be a lot more interesting of a matchup if Minnesota is riding a 3-game winning streak and sitting at 5-3 when they come to town.
2. Penn State to demolish Wisconsin in Happy Valley this weekend. For one, we lost to PSU and do not play Wisconsin, so that is an obvious reason to want Wiscy to lose. In addition to that, though, NBC might not be so quick to broadcast the Badgers two weeks in a row if they lay an egg.
3. Northwestern to score an upset in Iowa City this weekend. Again, we play NU and not Iowa ... so there's an obvious reason. Also, though, a home loss to NU to send Iowa to 4-4 might legitimately derail their season and make an Iowa/Wisconsin matchup truly unappealing.

I think our goal here is to aim for that primetime NBC slot that can showcase Memorial Stadium under the lights, so I am not too concerned about what happens with Indiana and MSU between now and then.
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Penn State is playing at Wisconsin not in Happy Valley.
 
#144      
ChiefGritty
Toews said:
Kind of just a weird situation because obviously OSU-PSU going to get priority and let's be honest Oregon-Michigan just a way bigger name. Since MSU doesn't want anymore primetime games (they would have probably been the NBC option) they kind of just fell to an odd tv slot.
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Obviously OSU-PSU and OU-scUM are 1 and 2.

But NBC is saying that Indiana, total juggernaut and probable playoff team, is getting dumped off network TV for Literally Iowa if they slip up with their QB injured.
 
#145      
Toews
ChiefGritty said:
Obviously OSU-PSU and OU-scUM are 1 and 2.

But NBC is saying that Indiana, total juggernaut and probable playoff team, is getting dumped off network TV for Literally Iowa if they slip up with their QB injured.
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MSU doesn’t want anymore prime time games though and was told they wouldn’t get anymore. They won’t be on NBC as the tweet doesn’t even list 630 as an option for them.
 
#146      
ChiefGritty
Toews said:
MSU doesn’t want anymore prime time games though and was told they wouldn’t get anymore. They won’t be on NBC as the tweet doesn’t even list 630 as an option for them.
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Oh wow, that's a really good spot, and that makes it make more sense.

I retract my snarky observation!

Anybody's game for the NBC night game then. Go Gophers.
 
#148      
Mr. Tibbs
ChiefGritty said:
Obviously OSU-PSU and OU-scUM are 1 and 2.

But NBC is saying that Indiana, total juggernaut and probable playoff team, is getting dumped off network TV for Literally Iowa if they slip up with their QB injured.
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welcome to our world too

respect is not earned over 7 weeks playing FIU , Charlotte & a crappy UCLA team

they have not played one ranked team this year
 
#149      
mhuml32
ChiefGritty said:
I will guess that at least 2017 and 2004 and maybe 2018 are in that bottom 8?

That all of our worst post-slush fund seasons happened after Ron Guenther had fully established his direction of the program tells you everything you need to know.
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You asked for it, here are the bottom eight Illinois teams post-slush fund.

1. '97 (Turner's first season)
2. '69 (Valek's second-to-last season, -191 point differential)
3. '12 (Beckman's first season)
4. '03 (Turner's second-to-last season, -195 point differential)
5. '98 (Turner's second season)
6. '17 (Lovie's second season)
7. '16 (Lovie's first season)
8. '05 (Zook's first season)

For those wondering about Bielema being set up by Lovie, see above. Also, the 2020 season was the 9th worst by SRS, then Bielema took over. Just look, besides Valek getting left holding the bag after the slush fund, this is all after the Tepper era was imploding for the worst seasons that dragged the program into the cellar.
 
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