Illini Basketball 2021-2022

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#330      
Love FS' Casey Jacobsen Final 4 criteria...

1 NBA talent,

2 player experience

3 quality backcourt

4 top 50 D ( kenpom)

....wisconsin, Illini..have Casey final 4 criteria,... purdue and OSU dont.

Casey says National champ has been top 20 D
 
#332      
Love FS' Casey Jacobsen Final 4 criteria...

1 NBA talent,

2 player experience

3 quality backcourt

4 top 50 D ( kenpom)

....wisconsin, Illini..have Casey final 4 criteria,... purdue and OSU dont.

Casey says National champ has been top 20 D
From my own research, about 90% of national champs were top 20 in both Offense and Defense. And they're usually top 10 in one of those categories.
 
#333      
It's just one graphic, but it seems problematic that we only have two players in the top right quadrant, no?

Not really IMO. The markers are by player but the axes are really a team stat: pts/possession scored and allowed. In essence the chart gives each player credit/blame for the whole team’s performance while they’re out there. For a team like Gonzaga that’s almost always playing well, most players will be in the top right.
 
#338      
From my own research, about 90% of national champs were top 20 in both Offense and Defense. And they're usually top 10 in one of those categories.
19 of last 20 national champs have had a top 25 AdjO and a combined AdjO + AdjD ranking less than 50 (only outlier was 2014 when 7-seed UCONN won it all).

There are currently 11 teams that meet both criteria:
Gonzaga (AdjO: 2, combined AdjO + AdjD: 8)
Arizona (7, 15)
Baylor (8, 22)
Kentucky (3, 21)
Auburn (16, 26)
UCLA (15, 28)
Houston (14, 30)
Kansas (4, 32)
Duke (10, 32)
Villanova (3, 33)
Illinois (20, 44)
 
#339      
19 of last 20 national champs have had a top 25 AdjO and a combined AdjO + AdjD ranking less than 50 (only outlier was 2014 when 7-seed UCONN won it all).

There are currently 11 teams that meet both criteria:
Gonzaga (AdjO: 2, combined AdjO + AdjD: 8)
Arizona (7, 15)
Baylor (8, 22)
Kentucky (3, 21)
Auburn (16, 26)
UCLA (15, 28)
Houston (14, 30)
Kansas (4, 32)
Duke (10, 32)
Villanova (3, 33)
Illinois (20, 44)
Interesting. I believe 19 of the last 20 had an AdjO + AdjD of less than 40. And I don't have an exact number but I think the majority of those were closer to 30 than 40.

Earlier in the year I was using this as a way to qualify Illinois as a legit national title contender. I think at one point we had a combined score of like 29. But honestly, their Kenpom profile doesn't do it for me anymore.

HOWEVER, the Kenpom numbers are based on a season where we haven't been fully healthy and have yet to fully jell. The argument for Illinois now, IMO, isn't the efficiency metrics. It's in how good we've been in spite of all the adversity we've faced. We're on the verge of a B1G title and I think it's safe to assume we haven't even realized our full potential yet. That's why I'm optimistic we can make a run in March.

Regardless of how you come to the conclusion, it's fair to have championships aspirations for this team.
 
#340      
Interesting. I believe 19 of the last 20 had an AdjO + AdjD of less than 40. And I don't have an exact number but I think the majority of those were closer to 30 than 40.

Earlier in the year I was using this as a way to qualify Illinois as a legit national title contender. I think at one point we had a combined score of like 29. But honestly, their Kenpom profile doesn't do it for me anymore.

HOWEVER, the Kenpom numbers are based on a season where we haven't been fully healthy and have yet to fully jell. The argument for Illinois now, IMO, isn't the efficiency metrics. It's in how good we've been in spite of all the adversity we've faced. We're on the verge of a B1G title and I think it's safe to assume we haven't even realized our full potential yet. That's why I'm optimistic we can make a run in March.

Regardless of how you come to the conclusion, it's fair to have championships aspirations for this team.

All fair points. Here's the chart (just posting it because I have it, not to refute anything you brought up):

recentchamps.PNG
 
#341      
Anyone else finally started playing with the BTT Simulator?? Lol. I took a stab at my predictions and got the following, with us winning out:

1. Illinois (16-4)
2. Wisconsin (15-5)
3. Purdue (15-5)
4. Ohio State (14-6)
5. Rutgers (13-7)
6. Michigan (11-9)
7. Iowa (11-9)
8. Michigan State (10-10)
9. Indiana (9-11)
10. Penn State (8-12)
11. Northwestern (7-13)
12. Maryland (6-14)
13. Minnesota (4-16)
14. Nebraska (1-19)

We would play the winner of #8 Michigan State or #9 Indiana. Even though the game would be in Indianapolis, I think there will be PLENTY of Illini fans there, and I would rather face IU.

If we win that, we would presumably face #4 Ohio State or #5 Rutgers, unless #12 Maryland or #13 Minnesota goes on a run.

On the other side of the bracket, #2 Wisconsin and #3 Purdue are waiting, with #6 Michigan and #7 Iowa. BTT will be crazy fun this year with a full house of fans, IMO.

Purdue isn't losing to WI. I don't think they lose again.
 
#345      
Purdue isn't losing to WI. I don't think they lose again.

Purdue's defense leaves them vulnerable to some losses. Wouldn't be surprised to see MSU take them out on Saturday. They've lost 3 in a row and will be hungry for a win at home. Izzo teams generally play well with their backs against the wall. MSU also still fighting for a double bye in the BTT.

Wisconsin already beat them once this year on the road so....certainly possible to beat them at home.

And IU is fighting for their postseason lives. That one will be a dog fight.

Outside of Nebraska and Minnesota, anyone can beat anyone in this conference. I'm just happy we have 3/4 at home to finish the season.
 
#347      
Purdue's defense leaves them vulnerable to some losses. Wouldn't be surprised to see MSU take them out on Saturday. They've lost 3 in a row and will be hungry for a win at home. Izzo teams generally play well with their backs against the wall. MSU also still fighting for a double bye in the BTT.

Wisconsin already beat them once this year on the road so....certainly possible to beat them at home.

And IU is fighting for their postseason lives. That one will be a dog fight.

Outside of Nebraska and Minnesota, anyone can beat anyone in this conference. I'm just happy we have 3/4 at home to finish the season.
I agree completely about purdonts D and so do many pundits.......I have watched and listened to a lot of so called experts and almost all of them use purdont's D as the major hindrance to them getting to the FF or winning the Natty.....That's why we play the games , as it has been said over and over again that "" In the B1G , every game is a rockfight and anyone can be beaten if they are not on their game that night ""

We know that from the losses to the terps and RU..............................................jmho
 
#348      
Have a strange feeling Wisconsin may lose both games this week....@Minny and @Rutty. They only beat Minny at home by 6 the first time around and we all know how hard it is to play at Rutty....
 
#349      
19 of last 20 national champs have had a top 25 AdjO and a combined AdjO + AdjD ranking less than 50 (only outlier was 2014 when 7-seed UCONN won it all).

There are currently 11 teams that meet both criteria:
Gonzaga (AdjO: 2, combined AdjO + AdjD: 8)
Arizona (7, 15)
Baylor (8, 22)
Kentucky (3, 21)
Auburn (16, 26)
UCLA (15, 28)
Houston (14, 30)
Kansas (4, 32)
Duke (10, 32)
Villanova (3, 33)
Illinois (20, 44)
Excluding the beloved, that is a list of vomit.
 
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