(I want to start by saying I absolutely agree that FSU is the best target left besides Notre Dame by a wide margin, and I am only including them below for a comparison, not to make some point that Illinois is anywhere near FSU in value, lol.)
I'll once again voice my opinion that we are WAY too hard on ourselves, and Illinois brings a lot of value to a conference. We have this perception that we are like deadweight because we have been bad in the modern era, but that seems like an - err- simplistic way to look at this. Does ANYBODY ever postulate that, for example, Michigan State would get left behind? No. Because they have earned a better image on the field because they have won more in the last 20+ years ... but this is about money. And Illinois just simply is not worlds apart from our Big Ten peers that probably don't worry about getting left behind and other schools often listed as targets, and we are a LOT further down from our ceiling than they are, IMO.
2023 TOTAL ATHLETIC REVENUE
Michigan State: $170 million
Florida State: $169 million
Iowa: $167 million
Illinois: $148 million
North Carolina: $139 million
UCLA: $105 million
2023 FOOTBALL REVENUE
Florida State: $91 million
Michigan State: $90 million
Iowa: $87 million
Illinois: $70 million
North Carolina: $67 million
UCLA: $46 million
2023 AVERAGE FOOTBALL TV RATING ON MAJOR NETWORKS*
Florida State: 4.2 million
Iowa: 2.8 million
Michigan State: 2.8 million
North Carolina: 2.2 million
Illinois: 1.9 million
UCLA: 1.8 million
* Excludes small networks that drag everyone's ratings down like Pac-12 Network and Big Ten Network ... in other words, it tries to gauge the viewers a team is getting on the networks that the big decision makers actually care about.
TO SUMMARIZE
1. Illinois still ranks toward the middle or bottom of those lists above, but fan enthusiasm (something that naturally fluctuates for all but a handful of programs) is still very low compared to what it could be. So, while you of course can't put all of your eggs in the "sleeping giant" basket, the fact remains that Illinois is sort of an anti-Iowa State ... we are not maxing out our viewership with a small state that mostly follows another team and a modestly sized alumni base because we have been good lately. Conversely, we have been terrible, and even our absolute floor of fan interest is drawing from such a large pool of potential fans that we are hanging in there with "bigger" programs that are in way healthier places. Which brings me to my next point...
2. Even if you think where we are at this very moment is sort of "meh," how can our own fans not acknowledge how much better it could be?? We've already seen another significant increase in season ticket sales this offseason, and we will play significantly more high-profile matchups next year (e.g., Nebraska on FOX, Michigan, at Oregon, etc.), and I predict our average viewer rating will go up again. I think it's entirely fair to look at us as pretty respectable (if lower than we'd like to be) as far as the money we bring in, AND acknowledge that on paper we have a lot more room to grow. How is Nebraska going to bring in more money next year? They sell out every game, and their fan base tunes in every week. I'm willing to bet a coach who had Illinois rolling would bring in revenue that starts to rival programs like that.
3. I am still not convinced that Ohio State and Michigan have this huge desire to replace Illinois with Georgia on their regular season schedules, lol. All of the professional sports leagues have "lower tier" teams that I am willing to bet the Chiefs enjoy getting to play every now and again. To the Big Ten commissioner, I'm saying Illinois is a win-win. They have the opportunity to turn into a legitimate cash cow, and for now they will pull their weight in the revenue and TV ratings department while providing my sacred cows like Michigan and OSU an easy win 9 times out of 10.
