To clarify, I'm saying that both The Big 12 Conference (as a whole) and the schools that want out of the ACC, are incentivized to leak this sort of news.
I don't think Clemson or FSU had any better choices at the time...SC/FL had them blocked from the SEC & the B1G wasn't ready or willing at the time for either. So you had the Big12 or ACC with the ACC looking more secure with 1/2 the Big12 potentially joining the Pac12. ND threw the ACC a bone and the ACC looked like the best choice. IF I recall correctly neither supported the GOR at the time, but both got pulled into by the conference majority.
The GOR is what is keeping them there now, at least until the legal challenges play out. But I go back to there decision to sign the GOR. At the time it seemed like the best play they had to remain in a major conference.
Generally was 100% with you that B1G would take FSU if GOR wasn't in play; however the whole lawsuit bit and being a good partner may have some legs, then add in the questions on academic fit, & the money to get out of the GOR (I don't expect a 100% win for FSU - it is going to cost them something to leave & probably still expensive) could be enough to tip the scale where B1G isn't ready to move now, where Big12 will be a lot more flexible on the financial side.
I am going to make this lesson in Realignment Geopolitics simple as possible, the B1G's goal in this Florida State situation is simple, the BIG must keep FSU away from the SEC at all costs:
1. Clemson does not matter nearly as much in this situation, Florida State is the linchpin. Only worry about Clemson if FSU and them are an ironclad package deal.
2. FSU is the most important football piece in this deal. Florida State is the biggest brand (and a big brand when they were an independent) not affiliated with the "P2" and one from a high population state that is still growing. BTW to all of these conferences wanting North Carolina and Virginia first, they might be sleeping giants but Florida State's program is what you hope the other two are already. Actually what What these college Where FSU goes will influence the future movement of Clemson, Virginia/UNC (Big Ten or SEC), Miami, Va Tech, and maybe even Texas A&M.
3. One more motivation for Florida State, they feel that ESPN's suit took away their playoff spot. They would have going to a "non-ESPN conference" as at least a major league tiebreaker.
4. If Florida State somehow stays put for now, it delays the decision for a few years,
5. If Florida State goes to the Big Ten, it solidifies the B1G's place in the P2. UNC and Virginia has much better odds of going the B1G. A&M's flirting with the Big Ten will become much more intense and (unlikely) Mizzou may at least think about it. Heck Notre Dame may join the Big Ten. Also the B!G will have their choice of the other ACC programs too.
6. If Florida State ends up in the Big 12, the P3 structure is stabilized. Clemson is coming with them. The Big 12 will get a new contract that is at least 60-70% of the SEC and Big Ten's deals, heck I would not be surprised the current Big XII deal has "if we get a big brand, we get more cash per school" clause hehe. Also the Big XII is a lot less picky about adding schools like Louisville, Virginia Tech, and even Miami. Plus the addition of FSU and Clemson might kickstart the growth of any potential sleeping giants from UCF to the Texas schools to the Four Corners schools already in the conference. Bonus, it is good scenario for Illinois in which we are less likely to get kicked out.
7. If Florida State goes to the SEC, simply put
The dominant structure of the NCAA will a P1 with the Big Ten being nothing but an off brand SEC with a some big brands based in states with demographic decline. Clemson, Virginia and UNC will pretty much go straight to the SEC at ASAP. Unless they are even stupider than I think, Aggy will not leave this SEC superconference. This new SEC, extra-fueled by ESPN greed, can successfully break away from the NCAA if they can just poach the right schools from.... the Big Ten. You really think that USC, who helped kill their old conference, will have the loyalty to stay in the Big Ten when this superconference forms. If the SEC gets Florida State and whatever other ACC schools they want, in 10 years they will be brave enough to give Ohio State and Michigan the invite to join the SEC and bye bye Big Ten. BTW when this breakaway SEC Super League is finally unless Bielema goes full Bob Zuppke in the next two decades, Illinois ain't getting invited. The old timers scream "but we have the Chicago market," the Super League already will already have Chicago market, it is called Notre Dame. If ESPN/SEC gets Florida State, Illinois fate is the Ron Guenther Plan in Fruition, being a G5 that get stomps into submission by SMU, Wake, and Texas St. Thankfully, ESPN/SEC might not realize how good of a Realignment Geopolitics position they would be if they got Florida State.
This is spot on.I am going to make this lesson in Realignment Geopolitics simple as possible, the B1G's goal in this Florida State situation is simple, the BIG must keep FSU away from the SEC at all costs:
1. Clemson does not matter nearly as much in this situation, Florida State is the linchpin. Only worry about Clemson if FSU and them are an ironclad package deal.
2. FSU is the most important football piece in this deal. Florida State is the biggest brand (and a big brand when they were an independent) not affiliated with the "P2" and one from a high population state that is still growing. BTW to all of these conferences wanting North Carolina and Virginia first, they might be sleeping giants but Florida State's program is what you hope the other two are already. Actually what What these college Where FSU goes will influence the future movement of Clemson, Virginia/UNC (Big Ten or SEC), Miami, Va Tech, and maybe even Texas A&M.
3. One more motivation for Florida State, they feel that ESPN's suit took away their playoff spot. They would have going to a "non-ESPN conference" as at least a major league tiebreaker.
4. If Florida State somehow stays put for now, it delays the decision for a few years,
5. If Florida State goes to the Big Ten, it solidifies the B1G's place in the P2. UNC and Virginia has much better odds of going the B1G. A&M's flirting with the Big Ten will become much more intense and (unlikely) Mizzou may at least think about it. Heck Notre Dame may join the Big Ten. Also the B!G will have their choice of the other ACC programs too.
6. If Florida State ends up in the Big 12, the P3 structure is stabilized. Clemson is coming with them. The Big 12 will get a new contract that is at least 60-70% of the SEC and Big Ten's deals, heck I would not be surprised the current Big XII deal has "if we get a big brand, we get more cash per school" clause hehe. Also the Big XII is a lot less picky about adding schools like Louisville, Virginia Tech, and even Miami. Plus the addition of FSU and Clemson might kickstart the growth of any potential sleeping giants from UCF to the Texas schools to the Four Corners schools already in the conference. Bonus, it is good scenario for Illinois in which we are less likely to get kicked out.
7. If Florida State goes to the SEC, simply put
The dominant structure of the NCAA will a P1 with the Big Ten being nothing but an off brand SEC with a some big brands based in states with demographic decline. Clemson, Virginia and UNC will pretty much go straight to the SEC at ASAP. Unless they are even stupider than I think, Aggy will not leave this SEC superconference. This new SEC, extra-fueled by ESPN greed, can successfully break away from the NCAA if they can just poach the right schools from.... the Big Ten. You really think that USC, who helped kill their old conference, will have the loyalty to stay in the Big Ten when this superconference forms. If the SEC gets Florida State and whatever other ACC schools they want, in 10 years they will be brave enough to give Ohio State and Michigan the invite to join the SEC and bye bye Big Ten. BTW when this breakaway SEC Super League is finally unless Bielema goes full Bob Zuppke in the next two decades, Illinois ain't getting invited. The old timers scream "but we have the Chicago market," the Super League already will already have Chicago market, it is called Notre Dame. If ESPN/SEC gets Florida State, Illinois fate is the Ron Guenther Plan in Fruition, being a G5 that get stomps into submission by SMU, Wake, and Texas St. Thankfully, ESPN/SEC might not realize how good of a Realignment Geopolitics position they would be if they got Florida State.
Been saying the same for a long time. Well done @TentakilRex
Fighter, I admire your zeal and steadfastness when it comes to the Beloved. Your willingness to pick up an Orange and Blue shield and stand the wall to defend the Illini against all comers is heroic. However (there's always a 'however' isn't there?), money is a direct result of success, of which the Beloved have had little - and not just recently. Some factoids gleaned from the Sports Reference website:
I think you are way overstating the value & risk of FSU because of a recent uptick. ND is still the biggest play out there, FSU had a good year and are a significant brand, but you are buying high right now. Both the B1G & SEC passed on them last go around, are they that much better now as a long term play?I am going to make this lesson in Realignment Geopolitics simple as possible, the B1G's goal in this Florida State situation is simple, the BIG must keep FSU away from the SEC at all costs:
1. Clemson does not matter nearly as much in this situation, Florida State is the linchpin. Only worry about Clemson if FSU and them are an ironclad package deal.
2. FSU is the most important football piece in this deal. Florida State is the biggest brand (and a big brand when they were an independent) not affiliated with the "P2" and one from a high population state that is still growing. BTW to all of these conferences wanting North Carolina and Virginia first, they might be sleeping giants but Florida State's program is what you hope the other two are already. Actually what What these college Where FSU goes will influence the future movement of Clemson, Virginia/UNC (Big Ten or SEC), Miami, Va Tech, and maybe even Texas A&M.
3. One more motivation for Florida State, they feel that ESPN's suit took away their playoff spot. They would have going to a "non-ESPN conference" as at least a major league tiebreaker.
4. If Florida State somehow stays put for now, it delays the decision for a few years,
5. If Florida State goes to the Big Ten, it solidifies the B1G's place in the P2. UNC and Virginia has much better odds of going the B1G. A&M's flirting with the Big Ten will become much more intense and (unlikely) Mizzou may at least think about it. Heck Notre Dame may join the Big Ten. Also the B!G will have their choice of the other ACC programs too.
6. If Florida State ends up in the Big 12, the P3 structure is stabilized. Clemson is coming with them. The Big 12 will get a new contract that is at least 60-70% of the SEC and Big Ten's deals, heck I would not be surprised the current Big XII deal has "if we get a big brand, we get more cash per school" clause hehe. Also the Big XII is a lot less picky about adding schools like Louisville, Virginia Tech, and even Miami. Plus the addition of FSU and Clemson might kickstart the growth of any potential sleeping giants from UCF to the Texas schools to the Four Corners schools already in the conference. Bonus, it is good scenario for Illinois in which we are less likely to get kicked out.
7. If Florida State goes to the SEC, simply put
The dominant structure of the NCAA will a P1 with the Big Ten being nothing but an off brand SEC with a some big brands based in states with demographic decline. Clemson, Virginia and UNC will pretty much go straight to the SEC at ASAP. Unless they are even stupider than I think, Aggy will not leave this SEC superconference. This new SEC, extra-fueled by ESPN greed, can successfully break away from the NCAA if they can just poach the right schools from.... the Big Ten. You really think that USC, who helped kill their old conference, will have the loyalty to stay in the Big Ten when this superconference forms. If the SEC gets Florida State and whatever other ACC schools they want, in 10 years they will be brave enough to give Ohio State and Michigan the invite to join the SEC and bye bye Big Ten. BTW when this breakaway SEC Super League is finally unless Bielema goes full Bob Zuppke in the next two decades, Illinois ain't getting invited. The old timers scream "but we have the Chicago market," the Super League already will already have Chicago market, it is called Notre Dame. If ESPN/SEC gets Florida State, Illinois fate is the Ron Guenther Plan in Fruition, being a G5 that get stomps into submission by SMU, Wake, and Texas St. Thankfully, ESPN/SEC might not realize how good of a Realignment Geopolitics position they would be if they got Florida State.
And FWIW, I don't really even think we disagree. The common truth here is that by being so bad for so long and alienating potential fans, Illinois has significantly decreased its value and attractiveness. I am merely suggesting that due to factors we are LUCKY exist (e.g., good recruiting footprint, huge alumni base, shockingly capable donor pools given how bad we have been, large instate population, etc.), we have fallen from a very high ceiling and thus have a relatively low floor. In other words, we are pretty much at our worst right now as far as "brand value" ... and we are still similar to a program like North Carolina and UCLA. While I would NEVER suggest the task in front of Bielema is an easy one, I do think that a coach who can achieve the level of success seen at programs like Iowa, Wisconsin or even Minnesota would put us in a position where we really are a "big money" program. And there are programs out there that could win, win, win and still not be that much of a cash cow (e.g., Wake Forest).
there is about zero chance FSU ever comes in alone ala Penn St or Nebby
North Carolina and FSU would be the most sought after ACC pair. ND is the silliest, no-brainer of all time, of course. Bunch of hurt butts dating back a century now.
www.outkick.com
If ND wants to continue playing USC, join the B1G. Otherwise, get lost.Notre Dame Wants To Keep Rivalry With USC Going, But Does USC Agree?
Notre Dame's Athletic Director says that the Fighting Irish are committed to continuing their traditional rivalry with the USC Trojans, but there might be doubts on the USC side.
It will be interesting for ND, with USC's added travel schedule & adding potential games with Michigan/Ohio state/PSU to the schedule, I can see why they won't need ND as a rival. B1G pushing 9 conference games is an additional pressure on ND schedule. Add in Stanford joining the ACC & how that interacts with ND's 6 games or so with their current ACC deal (imagine the ACC/Stanford can work through that one though)... ND may start feeling the schedule pinch again.Notre Dame Wants To Keep Rivalry With USC Going, But Does USC Agree?
Notre Dame's Athletic Director says that the Fighting Irish are committed to continuing their traditional rivalry with the USC Trojans, but there might be doubts on the USC side.
maybe on Stanford, but it would probably take all of ND's leverage to pull off that one...I don't think the b1G has any interest in adding anymore Pacific coast teams, I think the current 4 will fill more than enough late night time slots. Plus Stanford has now tied themselves to the same GOR as FSU/NC and the rest of the ACC. If Stanford is available, so are quite a few other teams that would look much better. Maybe even Texas A&M would open up.
Ouch, it's the license plates all over again.Notre Dame Wants To Keep Rivalry With USC Going, But Does USC Agree?
Notre Dame's Athletic Director says that the Fighting Irish are committed to continuing their traditional rivalry with the USC Trojans, but there might be doubts on the USC side.
