I am going to make this lesson in Realignment Geopolitics simple as possible, the B1G's goal in this Florida State situation is simple, the BIG must keep FSU away from the SEC at all costs:
1. Clemson does not matter nearly as much in this situation, Florida State is the linchpin. Only worry about Clemson if FSU and them are an ironclad package deal.
2. FSU is the most important football piece in this deal. Florida State is the biggest brand (and a big brand when they were an independent) not affiliated with the "P2" and one from a high population state that is still growing. BTW to all of these conferences wanting North Carolina and Virginia first, they might be sleeping giants but Florida State's program is what you hope the other two are already. Actually what What these college Where FSU goes will influence the future movement of Clemson, Virginia/UNC (Big Ten or SEC), Miami, Va Tech, and maybe even Texas A&M.
3. One more motivation for Florida State, they feel that ESPN's suit took away their playoff spot. They would have going to a "non-ESPN conference" as at least a major league tiebreaker.
4. If Florida State somehow stays put for now, it delays the decision for a few years,
5. If Florida State goes to the Big Ten, it solidifies the B1G's place in the P2. UNC and Virginia has much better odds of going the B1G. A&M's flirting with the Big Ten will become much more intense and (unlikely) Mizzou may at least think about it. Heck Notre Dame may join the Big Ten. Also the B!G will have their choice of the other ACC programs too.
6. If Florida State ends up in the Big 12, the P3 structure is stabilized. Clemson is coming with them. The Big 12 will get a new contract that is at least 60-70% of the SEC and Big Ten's deals, heck I would not be surprised the current Big XII deal has "if we get a big brand, we get more cash per school" clause hehe. Also the Big XII is a lot less picky about adding schools like Louisville, Virginia Tech, and even Miami. Plus the addition of FSU and Clemson might kickstart the growth of any potential sleeping giants from UCF to the Texas schools to the Four Corners schools already in the conference. Bonus, it is good scenario for Illinois in which we are less likely to get kicked out.
7. If Florida State goes to the SEC, simply put
The dominant structure of the NCAA will a P1 with the Big Ten being nothing but an off brand SEC with a some big brands based in states with demographic decline. Clemson, Virginia and UNC will pretty much go straight to the SEC at ASAP. Unless they are even stupider than I think, Aggy will not leave this SEC superconference. This new SEC, extra-fueled by ESPN greed, can successfully break away from the NCAA if they can just poach the right schools from.... the Big Ten. You really think that USC, who helped kill their old conference, will have the loyalty to stay in the Big Ten when this superconference forms. If the SEC gets Florida State and whatever other ACC schools they want, in 10 years they will be brave enough to give Ohio State and Michigan the invite to join the SEC and bye bye Big Ten. BTW when this breakaway SEC Super League is finally unless Bielema goes full Bob Zuppke in the next two decades, Illinois ain't getting invited. The old timers scream "but we have the Chicago market," the Super League already will already have Chicago market, it is called Notre Dame. If ESPN/SEC gets Florida State, Illinois fate is the Ron Guenther Plan in Fruition, being a G5 that get stomps into submission by SMU, Wake, and Texas St. Thankfully, ESPN/SEC might not realize how good of a Realignment Geopolitics position they would be if they got Florida State.