If we finish 19-12(10-10), and win at least 1 game in the B1G tourney, I would give us a 98% chance of making the NCAA tourney with our resume.
There could be 5 teams that finish 10-10 and only 4 or 5 with a better record. We would have the best non-con wins (and no bad losses - unless MZ collapses which is looking unlikely). With the exception of Purdue on the plus side and Minnesota on the losing side, every game in the B1G isn't far from a toss-up. Unless the B!G gets a historic low number of teams in, I think a 10-10 record with our remaining resume would be enough, especially with the parity we are seeing this year.