Illinois at Oregon, Saturday, October 26th, 2:30pm CT, CBS

#126      
RabidDawgClassic
illini.watcher said:
I swear, the bookies refuse to give the Illini any respect! 21 points? That's what they're calling for Oregon? I could see the 3- to 4-point call from this past weekend as a repeat, even a 7-point call, but bookmakers think the Ducks will outscore Bielema, Altmyer and company by THREE FREAKIN' TD'S?? C'mon, guys...
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For the people who set the line, it’s not personal. It’s what they believe the betting public sees as the reasonable tipping point between the two teams. In a perfect world, they get 50% betting Illinois and 50% betting Oregon. They collect the 10% juice and have zero risk. They want their opening line to fall right on that 50/50 line and adjust it as the bets come in.
 
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#127      
Saturdaze
Rlouizjr01 said:
How are you pressured when you are a three touchdown plus underdog????
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I guess it depends on how you interpret ‘pressure’.

If we hold them under 30 that’s a big win on defense. Oregon scored 32 against Ohio State when Ohio State had only given up 34 all season combined.

If you think there’s no pressure because we’re expected to lose then fine, but my point is that they should be expecting this to be a high scoring game, and Lunney has little room for error to pull this off.
 
#128      
Second place is 1st loser
illini.watcher said:
I swear, the bookies refuse to give the Illini any respect! 21 points? That's what they're calling for Oregon? I could see the 3- to 4-point call from this past weekend as a repeat, even a 7-point call, but bookmakers think the Ducks will outscore Bielema, Altmyer and company by THREE FREAKIN' TD'S?? C'mon, guys...
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If Vegas is that far off, as the bets come in, the line will correct itself. If a ton of money comes in on us to beat that spread, the line will reduce. If a ton of money comes in on Oregon to cover, it'll move up. Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. They roll with the public sentiment, try to get the bets to 50/50, then make money on the juice.

The bookies REALLY don't care what the spread is, the over/under or who wins. If you want that spread to drop, you along with 500,000 of your friends, put money on us to beat the spread.
 
#129      
ChiefGritty
illini.watcher said:
I swear, the bookies refuse to give the Illini any respect! 21 points?
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We covered 19.5 by the absolute skin of our teeth at PSU, then gave up 49 points at home to Purdue.

I kinda like us to cover that line (this is not a Chip Kelly run-it-up Oregon offense anymore), but it's two touchdowns without breaking a sweat.

Michigan is DRAMATICALLY worse than Oregon. No comparison.
 
#130      
Birdus
Pikeillinifan said:
I am typically an optimist, but I don't see any scenario in which we win this one. That said, if we can play a reasonably tight game like at Penn State, that would be a huge win for us in front of a national audience.

For those of us who have watched Oregon play, they have WAY more athleticism and speed than Penn State, and a much more aggressive coach.

I'd LOVE to be wrong, and won't miss a second of this one.
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I think this could actually be tighter if we take care of the ball. Hey, we all know they are going to score points but I think we can score some too. Just not enough.
 
#132      
Lee
New Creation said:
a video if you are bored.

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Episode 17 Nbc GIF by One Chicago
 
#135      
band camp
EyeoftheIllini said:
Why why why do we go through this every week when people don’t like the point spread. The job of an oddsmaker is not predict the score. His/her job is to predict a line that will bring about as close to an even distribution of bets on the two teams. Oregon money would hit a line of -7 so hard it would be akin to bookie malpractice to set that as a line.

If I’m not an Illini fan, I call your “beat 3 ranked teams” with they all appear to have been overrated. Kansas is 2-5, and given the rest of their schedules and how they’ve been playing, both Neb and Mich might barely make it to bowl eligible. Thankfully I am an Illini fan and loved each of those wins.

Not sure why you’re up in arms over the spread anyway. If it’s that bad, hit it hard and make a bunch of money on Illini. If you aren’t a betting person, then why do you care at all.
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That's very interesting. I'm not a gambler/bettor, I didn't know how spreads work. Makes sense. Thank you.
 
#137      
ChiefGritty
For whatever it's worth, in 2024 betting lines are essentially just a pure reflection of what the advanced stats are suggesting about a game, both for accuracy's sake and because that's where the lion's share of the now nationwide and legal sharp money is going to come in anyway.

Today's lines are made by and for sophisticated data-driven operations.
 
#140      
Illini2010-11
ChiefGritty said:
For whatever it's worth, in 2024 betting lines are essentially just a pure reflection of what the advanced stats are suggesting about a game, both for accuracy's sake and because that's where the lion's share of the now nationwide and legal sharp money is going to come in anyway.

Today's lines are made by and for sophisticated data-driven operations.
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This is true. There are a lot fewer "uneducated" folks betting on games on feel and heart. With so many predictive analytics available to the casual voter now, it is no surprise to see the betting lines reflect what the analytics show.

If the game were to be held in Champaign, the spread would be closer, but I would still expect Oregon to be at least 2 TD favorites. Not a slight to the Illini, just an indication of how much better Oregon is.
 
#141      
ChiefGritty
Illini2010-11 said:
This is true. There are a lot fewer "uneducated" folks betting on games on feel and heart. With so many predictive analytics available to the casual voter now, it is no surprise to see the betting lines reflect what the analytics show.

If the game were to be held in Champaign, the spread would be closer, but I would still expect Oregon to be at least 2 TD favorites. Not a slight to the Illini, just an indication of how much better Oregon is.
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Well though critically, also a reflection of how deeply skeptical advanced stats are of this Illini team.
 
#142      
Homecoming 2019
ChiefGritty said:
We covered 19.5 by the absolute skin of our teeth at PSU, then gave up 49 points at home to Purdue.

I kinda like us to cover that line (this is not a Chip Kelly run-it-up Oregon offense anymore), but it's two touchdowns without breaking a sweat.

Michigan is DRAMATICALLY worse than Oregon. No comparison.
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Beaten without breaking a sweat, perhaps even beaten like a rented mule...?
 
#143      
illini.watcher
EyeoftheIllini said:
Why why why do we go through this every week when people don’t like the point spread. The job of an oddsmaker is not predict the score. His/her job is to predict a line that will bring about as close to an even distribution of bets on the two teams. Oregon money would hit a line of -7 so hard it would be akin to bookie malpractice to set that as a line.

If I’m not an Illini fan, I call your “beat 3 ranked teams” with they all appear to have been overrated. Kansas is 2-5, and given the rest of their schedules and how they’ve been playing, both Neb and Mich might barely make it to bowl eligible. Thankfully I am an Illini fan and loved each of those wins.

Not sure why you’re up in arms over the spread anyway. If it’s that bad, hit it hard and make a bunch of money on Illini. If you aren’t a betting person, then why do you care at all.
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Why do I care at all? RESPECT. 😊
 
#145      
Serious Late
Second place is 1st loser said:
If Vegas is that far off, as the bets come in, the line will correct itself. If a ton of money comes in on us to beat that spread, the line will reduce. If a ton of money comes in on Oregon to cover, it'll move up. Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. They roll with the public sentiment, try to get the bets to 50/50, then make money on the juice.

The bookies REALLY don't care what the spread is, the over/under or who wins. If you want that spread to drop, you along with 500,000 of your friends, put money on us to beat the spread.
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It really doesn't work this way. The book will move when bettors they respect bet into a line. Mattress Mack doesn't move lines. The right $10K will have more influence over a line than just anyone's $500K.
 
#146      
Serious Late
To illustrate this... here is a look at how one-sided bets on any individual game can be.
1000002458.jpg

Lines aren't established based on the total amount of money bet into them. They are set based on, as @ChiefGritty said, highly sophisticated models. They are then adjusted based on people with even better models betting into them. Not just anyone.
 
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