Illinois at Oregon, Saturday, October 26th, 2:30pm CT, CBS

#102      
GoDucks349
aaeismacgychel said:
For me, the 21.5pt spread feels about right in this one despite our record. Based on the advanced stats around this team, anything between a 17 to 24 point win for Oregon seems to be the most probable result. Gut feel is there might be a little bit of a betting push to put the spread down to 20.5 but again, I think the spread is pretty fair.

As for the why, while I do think our team is constructed in a manner that can cause certain teams problems, especially those that rely on lower possession games and whose strengths are more geared towards testing the secondary and using slower power backs and having a traditional pocket passer. I see our Achilles heel as teams that can stress our LBs, have speed, and can stretch the field. As such, I just see Oregon as a nightmare matchup for us. Our team is on the slower side on defense in the B10 and has shown issues with both gaps and containment when forced to account for multiple attack options and a mobile quarterback. Soooo it's going to be tough.

I do think we have a very accurate QB with 2 WRs that will be playing Sundays, and I think our OC will have a bounceback game after calling a bizarre one against Michigan (gut feel is once we had the lead, he was told that whatever he calls he better make sure we don't turn the ball over) so I think we can possibly surprise you a bit and put up some points on that side of the ball, but really, I think the only real chance we have in this game is if this is the game your team just comes out sluggish for. I don't think it's likely to happen with a ranked team coming in, but I have seen Oregon have an off game in seasons past. Where they just seem to struggle firing off the snap. If that happens, we'll have our shot but otherwise:

Oregon 45
Illinois 20

Hope I'm wrong as I have been most of this truly magical season
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Plus, it would be nice if my Ducks got a couple of guys back from injuries. Burch DE, Bedford on the Oline, Ferguson TE all would be a great help. As far as I know they are all maybe's.
 
#104      
ChiefKingfisher
New Creation said:
Paying Oregon is going to be like Purdue in the 2nd half times 100.

I said this during the Michigan game but the best thing in hindsight that could have happen to this D was that second half against Purdue. Why? It show’d what happens if this team isn’t lasers focused. Also, Oregon runs a lot of what Purdue was doing in the second half.
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If Purdue dropped 40 on us in the second half, you’re saying that Oregon will drop 400 against us 🤯
 
#109      
Thaillini22
GoDucks349 said:
Plus, it would be nice if my Ducks got a couple of guys back from injuries. Burch DE, Bedford on the Oline, Ferguson TE all would be a great help. As far as I know they are all maybe's.
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Mmm hmmm, hedging already. Oregon is scared! :p
 
#110      
GoDucks349
Thaillini22 said:
Mmm hmmm, hedging already. Oregon is scared! :p
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Not sure I'd call it scared, we didn't have Burch or Bedford against Purdue or Ohio St. As far as TE goes, Herbert (Justin's little brother) and Sadiq are both quite good and many people believe Sadiq is the best athlete on the roster. Also, Ferguson wasn't actually injured he had his appendectomy 4 or 5 days before the Purdue game.
 
#111      
CaptainCrutch
For CFP chances:

If you lose this game and win out the rest of the way home, I’d say 10-2 has a decent shot of getting you in but not a great shot. I’d look at our resume and say “you played two CFP teams all season and you didn’t really look competitive despite what the score might say. No thanks.”

Now, if you beat #1 Oregon on the road narrative flips. “Illinois was in it til the fourth quarter with Penn State (who I’d bet dollars to donuts ends up at #1 the following week if we did win) and took down 4 ranked teams. This is a dark horse.” You might buy yourself the ability to drop a close one to Rutgers on the road or maybe (maaaaybe) MSU if they keep looking good, and still sneak in as the last couple teams in.

I don’t think anyone in their right mind disagrees though, you don’t get to drop more than one game here on out. If it’s Oregon, it’d better be close. If it’s anyone else, there’s gotta be a good reason.

11-1 season here we come! Build the statues.
 
#112      
therealmiket86
GoDucks349 said:
Not sure I'd call it scared, we didn't have Burch or Bedford against Purdue or Ohio St. As far as TE goes, Herbert (Justin's little brother) and Sadiq are both quite good and many people believe Sadiq is the best athlete on the roster. Also, Ferguson wasn't actually injured he had his appendectomy 4 or 5 days before the Purdue game.
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I think Oregon should play it safe and have all those guys sit out this week.
 
#116      
gibb52
We aren't as good as Oregon. If they play poorly we have a chance to pull off an upset. We aren't as good as Ohio State either. Or several other teams. We will likely lose this game. Know what? I don't care. 6-1. We are playing with house money now. Win a couple more and we will go to a nice bowl game. From a program that was almost always one of the 2 or 3 worst teams in a 14 team B1G to being one of the 5 or 6 best teams in a 18 team B1G is everything I've ever asked for from IL FB. I'll take everything we can get from here.
 
#118      
turnaround3
SuperMetroid said:
Have we ever faced a bigger one game step-up in QB quality than Tuttle to Gabriel?
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In 1999 we opposed something named Billy Cockerham of the Minnesota Golden Gophers in week 7, who trounced us at the Metrodome 37-7.

The following week, 25 years ago this coming Wednesday, the Illini went into Ann Arbor and defeated senior year Tom Brady, 35-29.
 
#120      
pruman91
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Work Yes GIF by Offline Granny!
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#123      
Epsilon
Regardless of final score, I will say this: both coaches are smart and willing to be aggressive and use trick plays. I think this game will be one of the most interesting games this Saturday.
 
#125      
EyeoftheIllini
illini.watcher said:
I swear, the bookies refuse to give the Illini any respect! 21 points? That's what they're calling for Oregon? I could see the 3- to 4-point call from this past weekend as a repeat, even a 7-point call, but bookmakers think the Ducks will outscore Bielema, Altmyer and company by THREE FREAKIN' TD'S?? C'mon, guys...
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Why why why do we go through this every week when people don’t like the point spread. The job of an oddsmaker is not predict the score. His/her job is to predict a line that will bring about as close to an even distribution of bets on the two teams. Oregon money would hit a line of -7 so hard it would be akin to bookie malpractice to set that as a line.

If I’m not an Illini fan, I call your “beat 3 ranked teams” with they all appear to have been overrated. Kansas is 2-5, and given the rest of their schedules and how they’ve been playing, both Neb and Mich might barely make it to bowl eligible. Thankfully I am an Illini fan and loved each of those wins.

Not sure why you’re up in arms over the spread anyway. If it’s that bad, hit it hard and make a bunch of money on Illini. If you aren’t a betting person, then why do you care at all.
 
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