Illinois at Nebraska, Friday, September 20th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

#152      
It's the run blocking...more so the interior run-blocking...

IMO pass blocking is fine. You can just sense it - the difference this year vs last year at this time Luke scrambling for his life on seemingly literally every drop-back.

The 2 tackles also seem to be fine. Struggles are on the interior...
I agree with this, but I also saw our left tackle get blown by on the outside multiple times for losses in the backfield on run plays. I think the problem runs deeper than just interior linemen.
 
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#153      
Great start 3-0.

My goal is to go 8-4 regular season. The schedule favors us.

We should be favored at home vs Purdue Minnesota and Michigan State which gets us to 6 wins.

All we have to do is steal 2 wins vs @ Nebraska, Michigan @ home, @ Rutgers or @ NW. I think that is very doable.

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Agree, but I’ll shift NU to one we should win. They don’t look great, and that isn’t a road game in any meaningful sense … it will be at Wrigley in front of a hell of a lot more orange than purple, especially if we are still above .500 at that point.
 
#155      
So what’s up with the offensive line. Why are they struggling?
1) Not winning the point of attack. Need to be able to get your hands on a smaller Dlinemen, otherwise they're winning the leverage battle.

2) A few breakdowns where we didn't read the defense correctly. One example I remember was a sack (think it was 2nd quarter). CMU showed a 6 man pressure, so we called for a half slide to the left (make the DB on the right run all the way around the RT and have the RB pick him up). Except CMU disguised coverage well and the linebacker on that side dropped off into coverage, so the right side gets overwhelmed with 4 rushers against 3 blockers.

I see a LOT of other OLs struggling this early in the year with very similar issues. Some teams are better at hiding it than others depending on whether their QB can get the ball out quickly
 
#160      
This might be a hair too pessimistic for me but I prefer this sentiment over people taking about how there’s not a game left on the schedule we can’t win. Is it possible that we are team that can go into the stadiums of 2 of the top 10 programs and beat them? Yeah, I guess. But we haven’t run the ball effectively against anyone yet, and we have absolutely no depth dang-near anywhere. Our offensive line isn’t where it needs to be and our QB had some notable flaws that will be exacerbated against better competition. You can look at this as as optimistically as you want and there’s plenty reason to do so, but there are plenty of things cutting the other way too. We rant don’t know what this team is yet.

Tl;dr - going into this season, landing somewhere between 5 to 7 wins was the expected range of outcomes. Let’s not get so high on the early returns that 6-6 is a letdown.
We're 3-0. I like our chances for at least 7 or 8 wins.
 
#161      
So are we pretty much of the notion that this game is more tough than home scUM?

I mean...that's not necessarily something we would've claimed at the start of the year, and only thing that's happened is them losing to the #1 team in land. Certainly does seem like they have some issues though...particularly the QB spot.
 
#162      
I watched most of the first half of the northern Iowa game against Nebraska and all I can say is we better maintain defensive coverage on the edges because they do throw a lot of screens and a lot of check downs to the running backs.
 
#164      
So are we pretty much of the notion that this game is more tough than home scUM?

I mean...that's not necessarily something we would've claimed at the start of the year, and only thing that's happened is them losing to the #1 team in land. Certainly does seem like they have some issues though...particularly the QB spot.
Possibly. Michigan still runs the ball as good as anyone, and if they have time to figure out their QB situation.....

I don't like our chances in this game is the otber.
 
#165      
We're ranked purely as a function of preseason expectations for Kansas.

I am a strong, strong supporter of a vibes-based AP Poll. That's part of what makes college football fun. Enjoy it. But don't confuse it for a reliable prognostication of the quality of the team.

It will be a miracle if we're 5-3 when the calendar turns to November.

I know it gets clicks and talking head fodder leading up to the season. But i view pre-season rankings as largely useless, and i think it shouldn't exist.
 
#166      
So are we pretty much of the notion that this game is more tough than home scUM?

I mean...that's not necessarily something we would've claimed at the start of the year, and only thing that's happened is them losing to the #1 team in land. Certainly does seem like they have some issues though...particularly the QB spot.
KFord gives us a 33% chance against Nebraska and a 29% chance against Michigan. Though, I imagine preseason rankings are still factored into that percentage and Michigan has been dropping in KFord after every game they play. So that might look a little different by game day.

For example, KFord had Michigan at 13 and us at 76 in the preseason, giving us just a 13% chance to win. Now, Michigan is 22 and we’re 51 with a 29% chance to win.

Plus, that doesn’t take into account the atmosphere of the 100 year anniversary game; the throwback unis, the sold out crowd, the extra motivation to beat Michigan because it’s Michigan, etc.

I like us in the Michigan game more than the Nebraska game.
 

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#167      
Neb fan here.

Nice to read through this, you guys seem much more level headed than most fan bases haha!

I've always liked Bret, I think he's an excellent coach. You guys will always be solid with him in charge. Excited to see a ranked matchup in Lincoln for the first time in a WHILE :)

Your WR (Bryant) scares me a bit. We have one NFL corner (#6 Tommi Hill, who did a great job limiting Travis Hunter...he had his catches, but nothing explosive whatsoever) but Bryant is going to be one of his toughest tests. I think Bryant is one of the most underrated skill position players in the B1G. He's a Sunday dude for sure. Our other DBs are good but not great IMO.

Our defense overall is our strength. Going back the last 10 or so contests, we've given up 17+ only twice (24 to Wiscy and 20 to MSU last year). We've given up a total of 20 points so far, 10 to Colorado. The strength of the defense in the d-line. I would argue we one of the best DT combos in the country with #9 Ty Robinson and #0 Nash Hutmacher. Ty will be in the backfield A LOT. He's a monster and he's very fast for his size (6'6" 310). Both DTs could have gone pro last year but decided to come back and help NU get back on track. You will see a lot of pressure up the middle.

Our LB's have been a pleasant surprise this year too. A few young guys have really flashed and a walkon (Bullock) has been lights out for us as has Gbayor.


On offense we're good not great IMO. We have a decent WR core, but have had trouble at times getting separation. This is a TOUGH matchup for us because Illinois is so good in the defensive backfield. #17 (Barney) is fast AF but small. #18 is our next best who's got some speed and some length and #4 is our big possession receiver. Watch out for true frosh Nelson #29, pretty raw but gifted.

Raiola has been really good, his arm talent is ridiculous and he's only turned it over once this year (on a ball that traveled 50 yards in the air where our WR just got beat), but a couple times a game his throws have been a bit off and he hasn't really been under pressure consistently yet. Our OL has been MUCH improved since the Frost days (especially in pass pro), but I would still say we're good not great here. Not having Mazzccua sucks, but his backup was ok last game. Raiola's not crazy mobile, but he's really good at the "side step to avoid the rush". I think he's only ran the ball 2-3 times this year (excluding sacks and a couple broken plays), both for decent gains but it is not something he's going to do often. Some of you probably know, but he's the son of one of the best offensive lineman to ever play at Nebraska (and we used to have a LOT of good ones) and his name is on the stadium (a modern version of a "retired jersey"). You can tell he's had a lot of coaching from some really high level football minds.

Our main RB (Dowdell transfer from Oregon) is very good. He's a big back and will be a challenge to take down and is a lot more explosive than we expected. He'll get 60-70% of the carries. The other two (R. Johnson and E. Johnson...seems like a Blazing Saddles reference) are solid but not game changing. R Johnson is great in pass pro and receiving out of the backfield, he can really hurt teams there, look for him on passing downs. E Johnson isn't as big as Dowdell, but he is pretty shifty and can break one.

Our kicking game is absolutely our Achilles this year. They kind of split kicking into short (Alvano) and long (Hohl...though he has yet to attempt one) and Alvano only hit like 60% last year. Husker fans are pretty convinced this is going to cost us a game at some point. If it comes down to a field goal, nobody in red will be confident.

Anyway, I am expecting a good game against a well coached team. Definitely our toughest challenge yet. Hopefully we'll come out on top, we are 3-0 ATS this year, but Husker fans are riddled with PTSD :)
 
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#168      
Neb fan here.

Nice to read through this, you guys seem much more level headed than most fan bases haha!

I've always liked Bret, I think he's an excellent coach. You guys will always be solid with him in charge. Excited to see a ranked matchup in Lincoln for the first time in a WHILE :)

Your WR (Bryant) scares me a bit. We have one NFL corner (#6 Tommi Hill, who did a great job limiting Travis Hunter...he had his catches, but nothing explosive whatsoever) but Bryant is going to be one of his toughest tests. I think Bryant is one of the most underrated skill position players in the B1G. He's a Sunday dude for sure. Our other DBs are good but not great IMO.

Our defense overall is our strength. Going back the last 10 or so contests, we've given up 17+ only twice (24 to Wiscy and 20 to MSU last year). We've given up a total of 20 points so far, 10 to Colorado. The strength of the defense in the d-line. I would argue we one of the best DT combos in the country with #9 Ty Robinson and #0 Nash Hutmacher. Ty will be in the backfield A LOT. He's a monster and he's very fast for his size (6'6" 310). Both DTs could have gone pro last year but decided to come back and help NU get back on track. You will see a lot of pressure up the middle.

Our LB's have been a pleasant surprise this year too. A few young guys have really flashed and a walkon (Bullock) has been lights out for us as has Gbayor.


On offense we're good not great IMO. We have a decent WR core, but have had trouble at times getting separation. This is a TOUGH matchup for us because Illinois is so good in the defensive backfield. #17 (Barney) is fast AF but small. #18 is our next best who's got some speed and some length and #4 is our big possession receiver. Watch out for true frosh Nelson #29, pretty raw but gifted.

Raiola has been really good, his arm talent is ridiculous and he's only turned it over once this year (on a ball that traveled 50 yards in the air where our WR just got beat), but a couple times a game his throws have been a bit off and he hasn't really been under pressure consistently yet. Our OL has been MUCH improved since the Frost days (especially in pass pro), but I would still say we're good not great here. Not having Mazzccua sucks, but his backup was ok last game. Raiola's not crazy mobile, but he's really good at the "side step to avoid the rush". I think he's only ran the ball 2-3 times this year (excluding sacks and a couple broken plays), both for decent gains but it is not something he's going to do often. Some of you probably know, but he's the son of one of the best offensive lineman to ever play at Nebraska (and we used to have a LOT of good ones) and his name is on the stadium (a modern version of a "retired jersey"). You can tell he's had a lot of coaching from some really high level football minds.

Our main RB (Dowdell transfer from Oregon) is very good. He's a big back and will be a challenge to take down and is a lot more explosive than we expected. He'll get 60-70% of the carries. The other two (R. Johnson and E. Johnson...seems like a Blazing Saddles reference) are solid but not game changing. R Johnson is great in pass pro and receiving out of the backfield, he can really hurt teams there, look for him on passing downs. E Johnson isn't as big as Dowdell, but he is pretty shifty and can break one.

Our kicking game is absolutely our Achilles this year. They kind of split kicking into short (Alvano) and long (Hohl...though he has yet to attempt one) and Alvano only hit like 60% last year. Husker fans are pretty convinced this is going to cost us a game at some point. If it comes down to a field goal, nobody in red will be confident.

Anyway, I am expecting a good game against a well coached team. Definitely our toughest challenge yet. Hopefully we'll come out on top, we are 3-0 ATS this year, but Husker fans are riddled with PTSD :)
Dang boy, you would give Mel Kiper a run for his money. Thanks for the information. Good luck by the way.
 
#169      
Our main RB (Dowdell transfer from Oregon) is very good. He's a big back and will be a challenge to take down and is a lot more explosive than we expected. He'll get 60-70% of the carries. The other two (R. Johnson and E. Johnson...seems like a Blazing Saddles reference) are solid but not game changing. R Johnson is great in pass pro and receiving out of the backfield, he can really hurt teams there, look for him on passing downs. E Johnson isn't as big as Dowdell, but he is pretty shifty and can break one.
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#170      
just watched a Youtube video from a pretty popular channel previewing this game. Hundreds of Husker fans in the comments are certain they beat us by 20+
 
#171      
I think we need to simply use Valentine and run outside more and stop with the Feagin running to the 1 or 2 , and 3 or 4 gaps.

I really think the answer is not that complicated . Feagin can run the ball well, but we can’t telegraph it to the D what downs & where we plan to do it
I agree. The best way to not telegraph where we are running it is to have both backs in there at the same time. As it is, when Feagin is in, the D knows there's a 95% chance we're going straight into the line and when Valentine is in there, there's a 75% chance he'll pick the best hole.

Honestly, with the OL we have, it would be beneficial to have an RPO QB but I'm hoping Luke can pick thier untested D apart with a variety of slants, screeens and other plays we've been holding in the bag.
 
#172      
I agree. The best way to not telegraph where we are running it is to have both backs in there at the same time. As it is, when Feagin is in, the D knows there's a 95% chance we're going straight into the line and when Valentine is in there, there's a 75% chance he'll pick the best hole.

Honestly, with the OL we have, it would be beneficial to have an RPO QB but I'm hoping Luke can pick thier untested D apart with a variety of slants, screeens and other plays we've been holding in the bag.
We run RPOs
 
#174      
I agree. The best way to not telegraph where we are running it is to have both backs in there at the same time. As it is, when Feagin is in, the D knows there's a 95% chance we're going straight into the line and when Valentine is in there, there's a 75% chance he'll pick the best hole.

Honestly, with the OL we have, it would be beneficial to have an RPO QB but I'm hoping Luke can pick thier untested D apart with a variety of slants, screeens and other plays we've been holding in the bag.
Check out the latest illini inquire podcast. They hit on the RPO quite a bit.
 
#175      
back to the run game — what we are doing right now ain’t workin’

I think it’s just too obvious to the D . with Feagin in as RB, they are stopping him at the line 3 outta 4 times for little or no gain . it’s time to let Valentine run around the ends and it seems to get us 4-6 yds more times than not .

and yea , run some sets with both guys in . step back in time to when all teams had 2 backs in all the time . Feagin can always catch a screen or get a handoff and run
 
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