MoCoMdIllini
- Montgomery County, Maryland
They sure want him to be.The media says Nebaska is back at the start of every season, then they underperform. Maybe the new qb is really the next Patrick Mahomes. We'll find out Friday night.
They sure want him to be.The media says Nebaska is back at the start of every season, then they underperform. Maybe the new qb is really the next Patrick Mahomes. We'll find out Friday night.
Eh, I see it primarily as a semantics argument on what a miracle constitutes, but I don't have any issue with anyone saying it'd take a miracle to win at least 2 of @Neb, @PSU, vPur, vMich, @Ore. Most years in the past 30, that's a 1-4 if not an 0-5 for us. Agreed though that thus far this doesn't seem like most years and I also think an O/U of 1.5 wins seems fair. Right now based on how teams are playing I'd go with the follow likelihoods:we don’t need a miracle to go 1-3 or even 2-2 vs the 4 tough ones of the next 5 , but we need solid play from the whole team .
much like the game we played at scUM in 2022 and the refs jobbed us
Isn't this the big change up front last year that no one is talking about? Our performance against NE last year was not good.Last year after the Nebraska game we switched from a zone blocking scheme to a gap blocking scheme. Maybe we see more of that of that this week.
Isn't this the big change up front last year that no one is talking about? Our performance against NE last year was not good.
Regarding Michigan, we FINALLY have a head coach that doesn't "turn the other cheek" when the topic of officiating comes up. Really hope before the game he will call out the refs for their debacle in Ann Arbor 2 years ago.Eh, I see it primarily as a semantics argument on what a miracle constitutes, but I don't have any issue with anyone saying it'd take a miracle to win at least 2 of @Neb, @PSU, vPur, vMich, @Ore. Most years in the past 30, that's a 1-4 if not an 0-5 for us. Agreed though that thus far this doesn't seem like most years and I also think an O/U of 1.5 wins seems fair. Right now based on how teams are playing I'd go with the follow likelihoods:
Very little chance:
@Oregon- The only real chance we have of beating them is if this is a game they are sluggish and don't show up for. It does happen a couple times each year for them, but if they do show up as they do in most games, they should run us off the field.
Low chance:
@Neb- I think they're for real. They've always had a major talent advantage, they just also had a terrrrrrrible coach in Frost. They're playing good smart tough football this season, and them not doing that was the biggest reason they haven't been regularly getting 8-9 win seasons in the B10. We can beat them, and I think the Scotts can bait Raiola into some bad reads, but they should absolutely dominate us in the trenches and us playing in our first road game against a rejuvenated hyped up crowd is tough.
@PSU- I think PSU will be more susceptible than Neb, but not because of the on paper talent or expectations. Sadly they play UCLA right after us instead of USC, so we won't be a pure trap game, but I think Nebraska will teach us more about our line deficiencies and should help us gameplan for a similarly stout PSU front. As well, Franklin has shown himself to be extremely stubborn and resistant to make adjustments especially defensively, so if we find something that works and play good defense, I can easily see this one being a one possession game late. Would be a tough low chance win, but it's definitely possible
Slight dog trending towards tossup:
vMich- Michigan has looked completely out of sorts this season and ripe for the taking, but they are still Michigan. They will have a talent advantage and a ref advantage against us. This looks to be a winnable game, but we're still going to have to play good football to get it done.
Moderate Favorite:
vPur- There is no reason we shouldn't win this game other than them being our kryptonite for whatever reason. We should beat this team as it is not good, but they've also been not good for years yet somehow play out of their minds against us year in and year out.
Overall, our expected wins against this lineup is probably somewhere near 1.5. We'd need to decently overachieve to get 2. So not a miracle but still tough, unless you deem Purdue from a recent history perspective, in which case miracle seems accurate
Neither Illinois or Nebraska are coming off a bye week...Color me pessimistic. The Illini are 2-10 in their last dozen road openers, with the only wins being against terrible Connecticut and Rutgers squads. We just don't play well in our first road games, and that's compounded this year by (1) a short practice week, (2) a ranked opponent, (3) coming off a bye week, (4) that should be able to out physical us on both lines, and (5) with 85,000 energized opposing fans in the stands. This could get ugly. Hope I'm wrong, of course.
Being terrible in your first true road game is one of those classic, timeless elements of college football, it's not just us.Color me pessimistic. The Illini are 2-10 in their last dozen road openers, with the only wins being against terrible Connecticut and Rutgers squads. We just don't play well in our first road games, and that's compounded this year by (1) a short practice week, (2) a ranked opponent, (3) coming off a bye week, (4) that should be able to out physical us on both lines, and (5) with 85,000 energized opposing fans in the stands. This could get ugly. Hope I'm wrong, of course.
I think you are overestimating Oregon. They are nothing special and very beatable...if we didnt have to travel to their place, this game would be a toss up for me. Barring any major injuries, i think we definitely cover the spread, as I'm sure it will be outrageous as the public bets us down.Eh, I see it primarily as a semantics argument on what a miracle constitutes, but I don't have any issue with anyone saying it'd take a miracle to win at least 2 of @Neb, @PSU, vPur, vMich, @Ore. Most years in the past 30, that's a 1-4 if not an 0-5 for us. Agreed though that thus far this doesn't seem like most years and I also think an O/U of 1.5 wins seems fair. Right now based on how teams are playing I'd go with the follow likelihoods:
Very little chance:
@Oregon- The only real chance we have of beating them is if this is a game they are sluggish and don't show up for. It does happen a couple times each year for them, but if they do show up as they do in most games, they should run us off the field.
Low chance:
@Neb- I think they're for real. They've always had a major talent advantage, they just also had a terrrrrrrible coach in Frost. They're playing good smart tough football this season, and them not doing that was the biggest reason they haven't been regularly getting 8-9 win seasons in the B10. We can beat them, and I think the Scotts can bait Raiola into some bad reads, but they should absolutely dominate us in the trenches and us playing in our first road game against a rejuvenated hyped up crowd is tough.
@PSU- I think PSU will be more susceptible than Neb, but not because of the on paper talent or expectations. Sadly they play UCLA right after us instead of USC, so we won't be a pure trap game, but I think Nebraska will teach us more about our line deficiencies and should help us gameplan for a similarly stout PSU front. As well, Franklin has shown himself to be extremely stubborn and resistant to make adjustments especially defensively, so if we find something that works and play good defense, I can easily see this one being a one possession game late. Would be a tough low chance win, but it's definitely possible
Slight dog trending towards tossup:
vMich- Michigan has looked completely out of sorts this season and ripe for the taking, but they are still Michigan. They will have a talent advantage and a ref advantage against us. This looks to be a winnable game, but we're still going to have to play good football to get it done.
Moderate Favorite:
vPur- There is no reason we shouldn't win this game other than them being our kryptonite for whatever reason. We should beat this team as it is not good, but they've also been not good for years yet somehow play out of their minds against us year in and year out.
Overall, our expected wins against this lineup is probably somewhere near 1.5. We'd need to decently overachieve to get 2. So not a miracle but still tough, unless you deem Purdue from a recent history perspective, in which case miracle seems accurate
It's the run blocking...more so the interior run-blocking...So what’s up with the offensive line. Why are they struggling?
*84,998 as my dad and I will be thereColor me pessimistic. The Illini are 2-10 in their last dozen road openers, with the only wins being against terrible Connecticut and Rutgers squads. We just don't play well in our first road games, and that's compounded this year by (1) a short practice week, (2) a ranked opponent, (3) coming off a bye week, (4) that should be able to out physical us on both lines, and (5) with 85,000 energized opposing fans in the stands. I see them doing to us what we try to do against lesser competition: run it down our throats until we're forced to put 8 in the box, then giving Raiola easier reads with man-on-man coverage. This could get ugly. Hope I'm wrong, of course.
Yeah, that's why I said not exactly equal but still... 3 similar categories of teams. It's not like we've beaten Texas, Georgia, and Alabama and Nebraska has played 3 FCS schools...UTEP lost to an FCS school....
However, we also haven't been ranked in the Top 25 for any of those dozen road openers to which you allude.Color me pessimistic. The Illini are 2-10 in their last dozen road openers, with the only wins being against terrible Connecticut and Rutgers squads. We just don't play well in our first road games, and that's compounded this year by (1) a short practice week, (2) a ranked opponent, (3) coming off a bye week, (4) that should be able to out physical us on both lines, and (5) with 85,000 energized opposing fans in the stands. I see them doing to us what we try to do against lesser competition: run it down our throats until we're forced to put 8 in the box, then giving Raiola easier reads with man-on-man coverage. This could get ugly. Hope I'm wrong, of course.
I absolutely love this comment and this proposal! It simply has to work better than running straight ahead into a brick wall.I think until we get better interior line play, we have to use Feagin as a decoy up the middle, send a back in motion and pass to the tight ends at least 7-10 times. Get the linebackers committing to stop the run and moving with the motion then throw high percentage, short passes which will open up deeper routes and backs catching the ball coming out of the backfield!
So what’s up with the offensive line. Why are they struggling?