I worry about Luke getting hurt on one of those runs. Anyone know how Leary has been looking in practice? I need to know how nervous I need to be each time Luke gets tackled.
Illinois at Nebraska, Friday, September 20th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Just watched the full game highlights of the Nebraska vs Colorado game. A few takeaways:
1: Nebraska’s running game is very good. If we can’t stop it, they might not even need to throw to win.
2: Raiola is very good. A true playmaker. A great arm. Good on his feet. The full package.
But—he’s just begging for a multiple interception game this year. Against Colorado, he had one ball he just floated up in the air for a 40 yard gain. A better defense picks that off every time. He had another pass that bounced off the chest plate of a Colorado defender and back into the arms of a Nebraska receiver for a touchdown.
3: Nebraska’s defensive line is scary. Luke’s gonna take a few hits in this game. Our offensive line has to play much better.
4: Nebraska’s defense plays very sound. Not very many missed tackles. When they hit, they hit hard, they wrap up, and they take their guy to the ground.
All that said, the Nebraska / Colorado game was much closer than the score would indicate.
It was one of those games where nothing went right for Colorado and everything went right for Nebraska.
A list:
- 2 “should-have-been” interceptions by Colorado which lead to touchdowns for Nebraska. Take those two off the board and it’s a different game.
- When the score was 7-0, Colorado threw a pick six that was just a terrible read by Sanders and never should have been thrown.
- Nebraska blocked a field goal on the 10 yard line.
- Nebraska stuffed Colorado on 4th and inches twice.
- Targeting called against Colorado with less than a minute to go before halftime that lead to a Nebraska touchdown to go up 28-0 at half.
Nebraska was clearly the better, more talented team, but this game was closer than it appeared.
More evidence of that:
This is the net success rate from the game, which captures which team had more successful plays (it doesn’t take into account turnovers, penalties, and other important parts of football, but typically the teams with the best net success rate over the span of a season win the most games).
Colorado had a better net success rate than Nebraska:
I still don’t necessarily see us winning this game. Mostly due to match up. They can run the ball, we struggle to stop the run. They have a scary defensive line, we struggle on the offensive line.
But I think the game is going to be closer than a lot of people.
1: Nebraska’s running game is very good. If we can’t stop it, they might not even need to throw to win.
2: Raiola is very good. A true playmaker. A great arm. Good on his feet. The full package.
But—he’s just begging for a multiple interception game this year. Against Colorado, he had one ball he just floated up in the air for a 40 yard gain. A better defense picks that off every time. He had another pass that bounced off the chest plate of a Colorado defender and back into the arms of a Nebraska receiver for a touchdown.
3: Nebraska’s defensive line is scary. Luke’s gonna take a few hits in this game. Our offensive line has to play much better.
4: Nebraska’s defense plays very sound. Not very many missed tackles. When they hit, they hit hard, they wrap up, and they take their guy to the ground.
All that said, the Nebraska / Colorado game was much closer than the score would indicate.
It was one of those games where nothing went right for Colorado and everything went right for Nebraska.
A list:
- 2 “should-have-been” interceptions by Colorado which lead to touchdowns for Nebraska. Take those two off the board and it’s a different game.
- When the score was 7-0, Colorado threw a pick six that was just a terrible read by Sanders and never should have been thrown.
- Nebraska blocked a field goal on the 10 yard line.
- Nebraska stuffed Colorado on 4th and inches twice.
- Targeting called against Colorado with less than a minute to go before halftime that lead to a Nebraska touchdown to go up 28-0 at half.
Nebraska was clearly the better, more talented team, but this game was closer than it appeared.
More evidence of that:
This is the net success rate from the game, which captures which team had more successful plays (it doesn’t take into account turnovers, penalties, and other important parts of football, but typically the teams with the best net success rate over the span of a season win the most games).
Colorado had a better net success rate than Nebraska:
I still don’t necessarily see us winning this game. Mostly due to match up. They can run the ball, we struggle to stop the run. They have a scary defensive line, we struggle on the offensive line.
But I think the game is going to be closer than a lot of people.
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DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Great info!
My bet would be that they'll be 4-2 and we'll be 4-2.
I know they’ve generally been pretty high on him (as a backup), and you can see the spring game on tape where he throws 2-3 40-yard bombs so he’s got a good arm. But, again, he’s the backup for a reason.
Focus more on the fact that the 1-2 scrambles per game has always been a part of Luke’s game and he’s generally stayed away from injuries on it. He did get a concussion last season, but that wasn’t in a scramble.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
Illinois' Bret Bielema talks Dylan Raiola, Nebraska history ahead of Friday showdown
Bret Bielema’s familiarity with Nebraska goes back decades. Ahead of Friday's ranked matchup, the Illinois coach had high praise for the Husker fanbase and quarterback Dylan Raiola.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Playing any QB backup except Texas is someone thing you’d rather avoid. Altmyer is probably the 5th-7th best B1G QB. Leary may look good in practice, but he would have lessons to learn if he was playing.
He's a top 5 QB in the B10.
Paddock did ok, no?
The ILL-INI nation is very near the corn... That sounds like a good 2 ints and 3 sack outing for a freshman QB who will learn what disguised secondary looks like.....the hard way.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Paddock did ok, no?
Paddock had over 500 career passing attempts before coming to Illinois. Leary has 5. This is not the same argument being presented earlier. But yes, Paddock provided a shot-in-the-arm at an opportune time but even then it was extremely high variance. His Indiana game was one of the best QB performances in Illinois history and the Minnesota final drive was legendary. Against Iowa he was below average and looked unplayable against Penn State in relief. But again, this was from someone with lots of experience! Leary has barely played.
Paddock had a ton of previous starting experience so not really comparable.Paddock did ok, no?
OrangeBlue98
- Des Moines, IA
But if Nebraska doesn't have to throw or can run play-action all day, those disguised secondary looks won't do a lot of good. If I'm Nebraska, I focus on establishing the run and dare us to stop them. If the Illinois D-line can at least be serviceable against the run, then there's a chance.
Not sure who or what you’re arguing. I asked how Leary looked in practice so I know how nervous to be when Luke gets hit. Relax, bro.
Yeah, I was responding to his comment about Texas being the only team with a great back-up. Not sure why you think I was comparing Paddock to Leary. I wasn’t.
Few keys I think will factor into this game and keeping an eye on......
Raiola hasn't been pressured much or had to force passes. Only sacked once and 6 rush attempts through three games against very weak defenses. I think we bring pressure but also need to have a spy on Raiola because I look for those rush attempts to go up when pressure is applied.
Nebraska D has showed up. Toughest team they played was Colorado which is one-dimensional (weakness for them). Hayden with 5 rushing attempts against Nebraska is a joke. Illinois will run the ball whether they gain 2 or 7 yards a carry. Illinois comes in with a stable of healthy backs that all bring different skill levels and change of pace.
Nebraska has played UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa. Illinois has played EIU, Kansas and Central Michigan. Nebraska D averaging 9 penalties/game, Illinois D 4.7 penalties/game. Interested to see if we hold to form with first game on the road in hostile environment.
I like the running back rotation, QB play and Bryant/Franklin. Hoping to see growth throughout the season from rest of WR/TE group.
Raiola hasn't been pressured much or had to force passes. Only sacked once and 6 rush attempts through three games against very weak defenses. I think we bring pressure but also need to have a spy on Raiola because I look for those rush attempts to go up when pressure is applied.
Nebraska D has showed up. Toughest team they played was Colorado which is one-dimensional (weakness for them). Hayden with 5 rushing attempts against Nebraska is a joke. Illinois will run the ball whether they gain 2 or 7 yards a carry. Illinois comes in with a stable of healthy backs that all bring different skill levels and change of pace.
Nebraska has played UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa. Illinois has played EIU, Kansas and Central Michigan. Nebraska D averaging 9 penalties/game, Illinois D 4.7 penalties/game. Interested to see if we hold to form with first game on the road in hostile environment.
I like the running back rotation, QB play and Bryant/Franklin. Hoping to see growth throughout the season from rest of WR/TE group.
band camp
- STL City
I keep coming back to our place kickers. They may hit 5 on Friday night. I have to think this is a big advantage for us in this game.
Theoretically we are in FG range at the opponents 40.
Idk...just a thought.
Edit: after fact checking nebby's kicking stats.
3 of 4 on the season with zero kicks over 40 yards.
Theoretically we are in FG range at the opponents 40.
Idk...just a thought.
Edit: after fact checking nebby's kicking stats.
3 of 4 on the season with zero kicks over 40 yards.
Have to disagree with BOLDED here... 14 points were negated by phantom penalties called on Nebraska in the second half that would have painted a better picture of the domination over Colorado. We can say "If you take away this or that" with every game and change the outcome. The fact is without the non-existent penalties that erased scores that game is as lopsided on the scoreboard as it was on the field.
orange100
time to hop on the wife
This is why I am generally against hiring a beloved ex-player for a coaching position, especially HC. When/If they flame out, it sours the memories and relationship, unfortunately. Can you imagine if we had hired Tim Brewster???
Illinois a medium amount.....Nebraska a medium amount.....I'm just not sure who ends up with a smidge more.....
I sure hope Henry dials up blitzes this game. Both run and pass blitzes. Our DBs are strong enough to handle their own in man coverage.