MoCoMdIllini
- Montgomery County, Maryland
They sure want him to be.
Illinois at Nebraska, Friday, September 20th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
Eh, I see it primarily as a semantics argument on what a miracle constitutes, but I don't have any issue with anyone saying it'd take a miracle to win at least 2 of @Neb, @PSU, vPur, vMich, @Ore. Most years in the past 30, that's a 1-4 if not an 0-5 for us. Agreed though that thus far this doesn't seem like most years and I also think an O/U of 1.5 wins seems fair. Right now based on how teams are playing I'd go with the follow likelihoods:
Very little chance:
@Oregon- The only real chance we have of beating them is if this is a game they are sluggish and don't show up for. It does happen a couple times each year for them, but if they do show up as they do in most games, they should run us off the field.
Low chance:
@Neb- I think they're for real. They've always had a major talent advantage, they just also had a terrrrrrrible coach in Frost. They're playing good smart tough football this season, and them not doing that was the biggest reason they haven't been regularly getting 8-9 win seasons in the B10. We can beat them, and I think the Scotts can bait Raiola into some bad reads, but they should absolutely dominate us in the trenches and us playing in our first road game against a rejuvenated hyped up crowd is tough.
@PSU- I think PSU will be more susceptible than Neb, but not because of the on paper talent or expectations. Sadly they play UCLA right after us instead of USC, so we won't be a pure trap game, but I think Nebraska will teach us more about our line deficiencies and should help us gameplan for a similarly stout PSU front. As well, Franklin has shown himself to be extremely stubborn and resistant to make adjustments especially defensively, so if we find something that works and play good defense, I can easily see this one being a one possession game late. Would be a tough low chance win, but it's definitely possible
Slight dog trending towards tossup:
vMich- Michigan has looked completely out of sorts this season and ripe for the taking, but they are still Michigan. They will have a talent advantage and a ref advantage against us. This looks to be a winnable game, but we're still going to have to play good football to get it done.
Moderate Favorite:
vPur- There is no reason we shouldn't win this game other than them being our kryptonite for whatever reason. We should beat this team as it is not good, but they've also been not good for years yet somehow play out of their minds against us year in and year out.
Overall, our expected wins against this lineup is probably somewhere near 1.5. We'd need to decently overachieve to get 2. So not a miracle but still tough, unless you deem Purdue from a recent history perspective, in which case miracle seems accurate
Illinivek23
- Gurnee
Isn't this the big change up front last year that no one is talking about? Our performance against NE last year was not good.
My observation of this game:
First key is the offense will need to show some dynamism. Hoping Lunney has held a couple things back and perhaps learned a bit about what is and isn't working (based largely on OL play) and is ready to adjust. Have to be able to catch the Husker D off-guard a bit. Also, have to have play calling which helps avoid Luke taking sacks. He's shown great poise, thus far, but if he's hurried/sacked a bunch, mistakes will likely follow and we're in for a long night.
Also have to hope for the D-line to be ready to step up against stiffer competition and force the freshman QB into some mistakes of his own. We know we have a capable secondary to capitalize on those mistakes. Winning the turnover battle is a must.
I have confidence that BB will have a gameplan in place which at least keeps things competitive. He's shown, many times now, a knack for doing this. If a couple bounces go our way, we just might be able to sneak one away under the Friday night lights.
First key is the offense will need to show some dynamism. Hoping Lunney has held a couple things back and perhaps learned a bit about what is and isn't working (based largely on OL play) and is ready to adjust. Have to be able to catch the Husker D off-guard a bit. Also, have to have play calling which helps avoid Luke taking sacks. He's shown great poise, thus far, but if he's hurried/sacked a bunch, mistakes will likely follow and we're in for a long night.
Also have to hope for the D-line to be ready to step up against stiffer competition and force the freshman QB into some mistakes of his own. We know we have a capable secondary to capitalize on those mistakes. Winning the turnover battle is a must.
I have confidence that BB will have a gameplan in place which at least keeps things competitive. He's shown, many times now, a knack for doing this. If a couple bounces go our way, we just might be able to sneak one away under the Friday night lights.
That’s when the running game improved and feagin started running down hill.
Color me pessimistic. The Illini are 2-10 in their last dozen road openers, with the only wins being against terrible Connecticut and Rutgers squads. We just don't play well in our first road games, and that's compounded this year by (1) a short practice week, (2) a ranked opponent, (3) coming off a bye week, (4) that should be able to out physical us on both lines, and (5) with 85,000 energized opposing fans in the stands. I see them doing to us what we try to do against lesser competition: run it down our throats until we're forced to put 8 in the box, then giving Raiola easier reads with man-on-man coverage. This could get ugly. Hope I'm wrong, of course.
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Regarding Michigan, we FINALLY have a head coach that doesn't "turn the other cheek" when the topic of officiating comes up. Really hope before the game he will call out the refs for their debacle in Ann Arbor 2 years ago.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Neither Illinois or Nebraska are coming off a bye week...
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Being terrible in your first true road game is one of those classic, timeless elements of college football, it's not just us.
Just for the record though, Nebraska isn't coming off a bye, they played Northern Iowa on Saturday night and so actually have marginally less rest than we do.
It's just a really big talent gap in a really difficult environment playing a style we tend to have trouble with. If we play clean football and keep it close I will be pretty enthused, and if we do keep it close, their self-sabotage tendencies come into play.
I think until we get better interior line play, we have to use Feagin as a decoy up the middle, send a back in motion and pass to the tight ends at least 7-10 times. Get the linebackers committing to stop the run and moving with the motion then throw high percentage, short passes which will open up deeper routes and backs catching the ball coming out of the backfield!
I think you are overestimating Oregon. They are nothing special and very beatable...if we didnt have to travel to their place, this game would be a toss up for me. Barring any major injuries, i think we definitely cover the spread, as I'm sure it will be outrageous as the public bets us down.
It's the run blocking...more so the interior run-blocking...
IMO pass blocking is fine. You can just sense it - the difference this year vs last year at this time Luke scrambling for his life on seemingly literally every drop-back.
The 2 tackles also seem to be fine. Struggles are on the interior...
*84,998 as my dad and I will be there
Yeah, that's why I said not exactly equal but still... 3 similar categories of teams. It's not like we've beaten Texas, Georgia, and Alabama and Nebraska has played 3 FCS schools...
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
However, we also haven't been ranked in the Top 25 for any of those dozen road openers to which you allude.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
I absolutely love this comment and this proposal! It simply has to work better than running straight ahead into a brick wall.
I have had us marked for a win in this one since the preseason however I had Kansas as a loss. I was/am willing to settle for 3-1 in our first 4 but still think there is a chance we walk out with the W on Friday and move to 4-0.
You all have touched on the fact that this will be Raiola's first real test against a defense with substance. The key's on the defensive side of the ball should be to confuse Raiola with pre-snap looks that either show we are bringing pressure, manning up and bailing to zone or vise-versa. The more looks we can give him the better. However, I believe the real factor is getting pressure on him with 4-5 people so the rest of the group can match up on the outside and play centerfield down the middle. I don't want us to get into a situation where we are having to bring 5+ people every down just to get some pressure. We have to sure up the run defense as well. We cant allow those 10+ yard chunk runs like we have been. Ultimately we are living up to the bend don't break defense so far but a couple chunk plays can break you in a hurry. Also don't let #24 get involved to much in this game, I feel like he was there for a big play whenever they needed it last year.
Key on offense is going to be playing mistake free football. Don't turn the ball over, win TOP, don't get in 3rd and longs and finish drives with touchdowns. There needs to be an emphasis on interior run blocking this week as well as coaching up Feagin to get downhill faster and to run with a lower pad level. I would also like to see more underneath mesh routes (backs, TE, slot guys). Would love to see Wilcher get involved with this mesh concept given his speed, hit him in stride underneath and let him cut up field in space and see what happens. The injury to Rusk isn't being talked about enough, I think that is really setting this offense back. We don't have a TE or safety net out there with sure hands or the speed to turn nothing into something. Arkin has had a couple timely drops that would have really put us over the edge.
Not able to make it to this game but please fill their stands like they did to us last year. I cant stand that stupid go big red cheer they do, lets just shut them up!!!
You all have touched on the fact that this will be Raiola's first real test against a defense with substance. The key's on the defensive side of the ball should be to confuse Raiola with pre-snap looks that either show we are bringing pressure, manning up and bailing to zone or vise-versa. The more looks we can give him the better. However, I believe the real factor is getting pressure on him with 4-5 people so the rest of the group can match up on the outside and play centerfield down the middle. I don't want us to get into a situation where we are having to bring 5+ people every down just to get some pressure. We have to sure up the run defense as well. We cant allow those 10+ yard chunk runs like we have been. Ultimately we are living up to the bend don't break defense so far but a couple chunk plays can break you in a hurry. Also don't let #24 get involved to much in this game, I feel like he was there for a big play whenever they needed it last year.
Key on offense is going to be playing mistake free football. Don't turn the ball over, win TOP, don't get in 3rd and longs and finish drives with touchdowns. There needs to be an emphasis on interior run blocking this week as well as coaching up Feagin to get downhill faster and to run with a lower pad level. I would also like to see more underneath mesh routes (backs, TE, slot guys). Would love to see Wilcher get involved with this mesh concept given his speed, hit him in stride underneath and let him cut up field in space and see what happens. The injury to Rusk isn't being talked about enough, I think that is really setting this offense back. We don't have a TE or safety net out there with sure hands or the speed to turn nothing into something. Arkin has had a couple timely drops that would have really put us over the edge.
Not able to make it to this game but please fill their stands like they did to us last year. I cant stand that stupid go big red cheer they do, lets just shut them up!!!
Better offensive line play is mandatory. I assume the staff is working on it.
My guess is that we'll keep trying to do the same things we have been doing, expecting better results as the line gels. So, now is a good time for the line to gel.
IMHO, that is the key to a potential victory over Nebraska. If our O'line improves to the point we have long, sustained drives, our D'line will look better by virtue of not being on the field. When on the field field, the D'line should be hungry for action.
Friday evening should be interesting.
My guess is that we'll keep trying to do the same things we have been doing, expecting better results as the line gels. So, now is a good time for the line to gel.
IMHO, that is the key to a potential victory over Nebraska. If our O'line improves to the point we have long, sustained drives, our D'line will look better by virtue of not being on the field. When on the field field, the D'line should be hungry for action.
Friday evening should be interesting.
They are getting blown up in the run game. Besides for technique the issue is leverage, power, core strength and balance. It’s cliche but give me some guys who wrestled in hs. They will play with leverage and balance. Also is great for their hands. If your are just big and slow it’s easy for the dline to get into your pads and move you.
Excited to be flying to Lincoln for this game!
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
pretty sure our oline knows all about proper technique .
it’s as if there is something one or more of our linemen is doing that is a “tell” to the defense that we are going to run .
I think we need to simply use Valentine and run outside more and stop with the Feagin running to the 1 or 2 , and 3 or 4 gaps.
I really think the answer is not that complicated . Feagin can run the ball well, but we can’t telegraph it to the D what downs & where we plan to do it
it’s as if there is something one or more of our linemen is doing that is a “tell” to the defense that we are going to run .
I think we need to simply use Valentine and run outside more and stop with the Feagin running to the 1 or 2 , and 3 or 4 gaps.
I really think the answer is not that complicated . Feagin can run the ball well, but we can’t telegraph it to the D what downs & where we plan to do it
So I do think Nebraska is for real this year, but just for grins I went back and looked at Rhule’s CV. He had a couple of really good seasons at Temple, but what shot him to the top of the list of program builders was probably the job he did at Baylor, specifically an 11-3 season that got him poached by the NFL.
However, in that 11-3 season Baylor beat 0 ranked teams and needed OT to beat a 4-8 TTU and a 5-7 TCU. Similar vibes to basketball coaches who become hot commodities after tourney runs.
I do think he’s a much better coach than Frost and raises their floor significantly, but I’m not sure there’s a large enough sample size to show he’s one of the best in the business.
Will be a tough game. I agree trenches will be a problem but first real test for a tru Frosh QB too. We get a couple of TOs and we’ve got a shot.
However, in that 11-3 season Baylor beat 0 ranked teams and needed OT to beat a 4-8 TTU and a 5-7 TCU. Similar vibes to basketball coaches who become hot commodities after tourney runs.
I do think he’s a much better coach than Frost and raises their floor significantly, but I’m not sure there’s a large enough sample size to show he’s one of the best in the business.
Will be a tough game. I agree trenches will be a problem but first real test for a tru Frosh QB too. We get a couple of TOs and we’ve got a shot.