12 team playoff changes what the top 12 will be. Let’s be honest it’s going to be a consideration. In the scenario of a hypothetical 10-2 Illinois the questions then would start about who we beat and our resume etc. Our metrics probably wouldn’t do us any favors either especially compared to a 3 loss SEC team. Listen I don’t really care. If we are 10-2 I’ll be dancing on Lake Michigan. I’m just being realistic. Our best win would be either a mediocre Michigan or a mediocre Nebraska (by the rankings). 10-2 with a win over Oregon and we probably could go 9-3 and make the playoff though lol.
Illini Football 2024
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Let’s just at least let ourselves get the brakes beat off at Oregon before we proactively talk about who else would handily destroy us.
Maybe? Well, let's take a look down memory lane at the teams who would have been left out at 10-2 in favor of 3 loss teams over the past 10 years:
Rankings are based on final CFP ranking as that is what matters for Top 12 purposes
2021: 10-3 Conf Champ with 2 good wins, 2 bad losses over B12 team with no good wins, no bad losses. Lesson: Beat Someone Good
10-3 Utah (P12): Pac12 Champ, Key Wins: N-Oregon (#14), H-Oregon (#14), Losses: A-BYU (#13), A-OrSt (NR), A-SDSU (NR)
over
10-2 Oklahoma (B12): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Baylor (#7), A-OkSt (#9)
2019: 3 loss teams with more/better key wins including away from home. Lesson: Good Away/Neutral Win>Bad Loss
10-3 Wisconsin (B10): Key Wins: H-Michigan (#14), H-Iowa (#16), A-Minn (#18) Losses: N-OSU (#2), A-OSU (#2), A-ILL (NR)
9-3 Auburn (SEC): Key Wins: H-Alabama (#13), N-Oregon (#6), Losses: H-Georgia (#5), A-LSU (#1), A-Florida (#9)
over
10-2 Alabama (SEC): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Auburn (#12), H-LSU (#1)
10-2 Notre Dame (Ind): Key Wins: H-Navy (#23), H-Virginia (#24), Losses: A-Michigan (#14), A-Georgia (#5)
10-2 Minnesota (B10): Key Wins: H-PSU (#10), Losses: H-Wisconsin (#8), A-Iowa (#16)
2018: Huh... Wazzu should be in in my opinion Lesson: B10 brand name>P12 non contender bias?
9-3 PSU (B10): Key Wins: None, Losses: A-Michigan (#7), H-MSU (NR), H-OSU (#6)
over
10-2 Washington State (P10): Key Wins: H-Utah (#17), Losses: H-Washington (#9), A-USC (NR)
2016: Lessons: Beat someone, Good wins>>>Bad losses, Win head to head against fellow CFP bubble team
9-3 Ok State (B12): Key Wins: H-WVU (#16), H-Pitt (#23) Losses: A-Oklahoma (#7), A-Baylor (NR), H-CMU (NR)
over
10-2 WVU (B12): Key Wins: None, Losses: H-Oklahoma (#7), A-Ok St (#12)
So maybe there's a brand name bias based on the one 2018 result? But other than that, it really seems that for the CFP they value teams in the following order:
Good Wins Away From Home>>Good Wins at Home>Number of Losses>>>Devaluing due to Bad Losses>>>>>No good wins
Not sure conference will have much effect, at least it hasn't shown to in the past, though we'll see how they handle things the next couple years.