Illini Football 2024

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#151      
With the expanded B10, everyone has a murderous FB schedule now. Much more difficult going forward for the former B10 West teams. I think Illinois has it relatively easier and more manageable this year to get to a bowl game relative to other B10 team schedules.
 
#152      
For comparison, here are the number of ranked teams we have faced each year (regular season only for apples to apples). Considering that two are on the road and three are in the top 10, it is a very clear step up from the past several years. It would be the first time we have faced 4 ranked teams since 2017, and this would be the first time we played 3 top 10 teams since 1998.

2024: 4
vs. #22 Kansas
at #8 Penn State
vs. #9 Michigan
at #3 Oregon

2023: 2
L 30-13 vs. #7 Penn State
L 15-13 at #16 Iowa

2022: 1
L 19-17 at #3 Michigan

2021: 3
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9 OT)
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota
L 33-23 at #17 Iowa

2020: 3
L 45-7 at #14 Wisconsin
L 35-21 vs. #19 Iowa

2019: 3
L 42-25 vs. #16 Michigan
W 24-23 vs. #6 Wisconsin
L 19-10 at #17 Iowa

2018: 3
L 63-24 vs. #10 Penn State
L 49-20 at #23 Wisconsin
L 24-16 at #20 Northwestern

2017: 4
L at 47-23 #22 USF
L 24-10 vs. #5 Wisconsin
L 52-14 at #8 Ohio State
L 42-7 vs. #23 Northwestern

2016: 3
L 31-16 at #15 Nebraska
L 41-8 at #3 Michigan
L 48-3 at #7 Wisconsin

2015: 3
L 29-20 at #22 Iowa
L 28-3 vs. #3 Ohio State
L 24-14 vs. #17 Northwestern (Soldier Field - Chicago, IL)

2014: 2
L 45-14 at #21 Nebraska
L 55-14 at #13 Ohio State

2013: 3
L 34-24 vs. #19 Washington (Soldier Field - Chicago, IL)
L 56-32 vs. #25 Wisconsin
L 60-35 vs. #3 Ohio State

2012: 4
W 17-14 vs. #22 Arizona State
L 10-7 at #19 Penn State
L 31-14 vs. #22 Michigan
L 28-17 vs. #15 Wisconsin

2010: 3
L 24-13 vs. #2 Ohio State
L 26-6 at #13 Michigan State
W 48-27 vs. #25 Northwestern (Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL)

2009: 3
L 30-0 at #13 Ohio State
L 35-17 vs. #13 Penn State
L 49-36 at #5 Cincinnati

2008: 3
L 52-42 vs. #6 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
L 38-24 at #12 Penn State
L 30-20 vs. #10 Penn State

2007: 4
W 27-20 vs. #21 Penn State
W 31-26 vs. #5 Wisconsin
L 27-17 vs. #24 Michigan
W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State

2006: 3
L 24-7 vs. #14 Iowa
L 30-24 at #17 Wisconsin
L 17-10 vs. #1 Ohio State

2005: 5
L 35-20 at #17 Cal
L 61-14 vs. #17 Michigan State
L 63-10 vs. #12 Penn State
L 41-24 vs. #15 Wisconsin
L 40-2 at #12 Ohio State

2004: 4
L 42-31 vs. #15 Purdue
L 24-7 at #20 Wisconsin
L 30-19 vs. #14 Michigan
L 23-13 vs. #23 Iowa
Thanks for putting that together Fighter. Your list reminds me of how much I enjoyed the 2007 season, my first with season tickets. Beating Penn St and Wisky back to back was magical.
 
#154      
With the expanded B10, everyone has a murderous FB schedule now. Much more difficult going forward for the former B10 West teams. I think Illinois has it relatively easier and more manageable this year to get to a bowl game relative to other B10 team schedules.
it’s become really tough to win 8 games with anything less than a good roster .

Time will tell how this all works out . we need the league to move towards an NFL like schedule that is at least partly determined by previous years records .

The networks need games that are between ranked teams , and middle and lower tier teams need a decent chance to win 6 games .

There is a solution here if they want this to work out in the long run . make all games in conference

Give every team 2-3 rivals and have 9-10 games scheduled per your record the previous year .

It works in the NFL.
it’s not rocket science
 
#155      
I quite honestly don't know which one would've made me more confident about winning Nebraska: had they not landed Dylan Riola...or had they not been our first road game.
 
#157      
I'm in! I'll go with this...

W 28-10 vs. Eastern Illinois
W 31-28 vs. #22 Kansas
W 24-20 vs. Central Michigan (a terrifyingly close call that should raise some red flags...)
L 30-16 at Nebraska (and we only get our last TD late; people start to freak out)
L 38-14 at #8 Penn State
W 34-30 vs. Purdue (we finally break this curse and do just enough for a great crowd vs. Michigan)
L 31-23 vs. #9 Michigan (we play inspired for most of the game but have a 2007-esque disappointing finish ... praying I am wrong, but losing on this type of stage is just our MO until proven otherwise)
L 52-14 at #3 Oregon (real ugly comedown game)
W 28-17 vs. Minnesota (as you said, there is no medicine for us like playing the Goofs and PJ!)
L vs. Michigan State (back down to Earth with an infuriating loss)
W 24-21 at Rutgers (SO much more like the Illini to get that "good win" on the road only after disappointing the home crowd yet again, lol...)
W 31-20 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley (we refuse to lose to them again in the city of Chicago and a friendly Illini crowd gives us extra motivation)

7-5 and a nice rebound year after last season.
I like your prediction better.....
 
#158      
Competitive games

Kansas
Nebraska
Purdue
Minnesota
Michigan State
Rutgers
Northwestern

We need 4 wins there. Unfortunately there are probably only 3. But if I were to guess where we can get to 4:

Purdue (WE ARE DUE.)
Minnesota (Bret > Boat)
Michigan State (They are apparently down, and we need revenge for 2022)
Northwestern (We should have won last year. Just go out and be the better team.)

Kansas is a "you never know" situation. It could happen but it doesn't seem likely. Nebraska I really like our chances against, but there is no disputing that our first road game is always a struggle. For Rutgers, idk, it just seems like one that we won't be able to pull off. But if we are at 5 wins at that point, I'll have my confidence back.
 
#159      
Thanks for putting that together Fighter. Your list reminds me of how much I enjoyed the 2007 season, my first with season tickets. Beating Penn St and Wisky back to back was magical.
I was a sophomore in high school during that season and had grown up pretty much watching us suck my whole sports life, haha (I was just too young to remember 2001), and it was so fun. While it didn't make that big of a difference (we still got that trip to Pasadena and the EPIC memory of beating #1 OSU on the road), it is such a shame that we lost two games to Iowa and Michigan that we simply should not have lost ... could have had a Big Ten title.
 
#160      
Competitive games

Kansas
Nebraska
Purdue
Minnesota
Michigan State
Rutgers
Northwestern

We need 4 wins there. Unfortunately there are probably only 3. But if I were to guess where we can get to 4:

Purdue (WE ARE DUE.)
Minnesota (Bret > Boat)
Michigan State (They are apparently down, and we need revenge for 2022)
Northwestern (We should have won last year. Just go out and be the better team.)

Kansas is a "you never know" situation. It could happen but it doesn't seem likely. Nebraska I really like our chances against, but there is no disputing that our first road game is always a struggle. For Rutgers, idk, it just seems like one that we won't be able to pull off. But if we are at 5 wins at that point, I'll have my confidence back.
I'm with you here. I'd love a 4-2 start since we most likely go 4-4 after that, if we start 2-4 the season is likely over. IMO we have to beat Purdue and MSU at home, payback for 2022 and Northwestern plus our buy games. That's 5 wins there against teams I think we should be better than, then the season comes down to winning one vs KU, @NEB, MINN, and @RU.

I have us at about 5.8 wins so I predict we go 6-6. I think this roster last year or in 2021 goes 8-4 or 9-3.
 
#161      
it’s become really tough to win 8 games with anything less than a good roster .

Time will tell how this all works out . we need the league to move towards an NFL like schedule that is at least partly determined by previous years records .

The networks need games that are between ranked teams , and middle and lower tier teams need a decent chance to win 6 games .

There is a solution here if they want this to work out in the long run . make all games in conference

Give every team 2-3 rivals and have 9-10 games scheduled per your record the previous year .

It works in the NFL.
it’s not rocket science
The NFL use of standings for schedule is not that big of a factor. 14 of the games are locked and not dependent on prior record. For the NFC North all teams play 6 division games and the same 4 teams from another division within conference and 4 teams in a division outside your conference.

In the past only 2 games were based on prior record. It looks like the new 17th game is also based on prior record.
 
#162      
The NFL use of standings for schedule is not that big of a factor. 14 of the games are locked and not dependent on prior record. For the NFC North all teams play 6 division games and the same 4 teams from another division within conference and 4 teams in a division outside your conference.

In the past only 2 games were based on prior record. It looks like the new 17th game is also based on prior record.
if we can get at least 3 conference games based on previous years record , I would be satisfied .
 
#163      
Competitive games

Kansas
Nebraska
Purdue
Minnesota
Michigan State
Rutgers
Northwestern

We need 4 wins there. Unfortunately there are probably only 3. But if I were to guess where we can get to 4:

Purdue (WE ARE DUE.)
Minnesota (Bret > Boat)
Michigan State (They are apparently down, and we need revenge for 2022)
Northwestern (We should have won last year. Just go out and be the better team.)

Kansas is a "you never know" situation. It could happen but it doesn't seem likely. Nebraska I really like our chances against, but there is no disputing that our first road game is always a struggle. For Rutgers, idk, it just seems like one that we won't be able to pull off. But if we are at 5 wins at that point, I'll have my confidence back.
IMO, all of those are a "anything can happen" game. If I had to bet right now, I'd say all of those games will be a one possession game.

So you truly...you just..."never know".

I mean...if you were to do the "here are the "competitive" (could go either way) games of Iowa football" at this time last year, you would've had a list just like this one...probably even longer. And they won all of those games. Literally all of them. And all in the most :poop: way possible.

You would've had the same type of list for us as well. But we lost 3 games (Iowa, NU, WISC) which we deserved to win, played better and simply just... should've won...

But "shoulda, woulda, coulda" only gets ya so far...
 
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#166      
LET'S GO BOWLING!!!

Under Bielema, we typically play most of the big boys pretty tough. I think we're therefore going to upset at least one of the big 4 teams early on the schedule, with home games vs. Kansas and Michigan being the two most likely victories.

*** 1-3 vs PSU, MICH, OREG and KANSAS
*** 2-0 vs EIU and Central Michigan

So I'm predicting we go 3-3 against the best/worst extremes on the schedule.

*** 4-2 against our closest Big10 peers. Among those remaining six, I think we'll play pretty well overall, and earn another bowl game. Good news = this is the year we get 5 Big10 home games! All six are winnable, but here's my take on the easiest to most difficult games:

- NW at home
- MSU at home
- PURD at home
- MINN at home
- NEB away
- RUTG away
 
#170      
Screw it. I’m optimistic. Offense takes a jump and Aaron Henry had a whole offseason to study his shortcomings and refine them.

Vs Eastern Illinois W (1-0)
- youngsters get some run late and impress (Leary, Valentine, Easton Baker)

Vs #21 Kansas W (2-0)
- in what most expect to be an L, Illinois shifts the narrative and shows its offense is a force to be reckoned with. It’s a high-scoring affair and Illinois gets the edge at home.

Vs Central Michigan W (3-0)
- CMU keeps it closer than we’d like before we pull away in second half. Some might question if we’re looking ahead to a big game against Nebraska.

@ #25 Nebraska W (4-0)
- it’s a close one, but we exact our revenge from a year prior with more or less mistake free football as their freshman QB shows his age and lack of experience.

@ #8 Penn St L (4-1)
- we play well, but it’s just not our day. Penn State comes out ready and we don’t have it for all four quarters.

Vs Purdue L (4-2)
- Stings, know. It’s the kind of gut punch that has us all really deflated dampening the momentum going into what many of us have circled as the most anticipated game of the year against Michigan. It just felt ripe for one of these.

Vs Michigan W (5-2)
- it’s a heck of a turnout, Illinois feels “back” and somewhere out there Rosenthal sheds soft sobs into his celebratory beer.

@ #5 Oregon L (5-3)
- I’m optimistic, but I’m not delusional.

Vs Minnesota W (6-3)
- it’s an awesome crowd turnout for this one. The Illini don’t disappoint.

Vs Michigan St W (7-3)
- here we are, returning back to a position familiar to us in 2022. We’re 7-3. We feel much better at 7-3 now than we did then. Bummer there’s no B1G West to chase this year.

@Rutgers L (7-4)
- they’re a good football team. Good enough that we aren’t quite up for this game as we should be for a classic disappointing Illinois L.

@Northwestern W (8-4)
- Wrigley’s about 80-20 Illini fans. It’s loud, it’s fun, and there’s no doubt. We march to a W and well-earned bowl game with a respectable ranking. We aren’t selected for the new expanded playoff and many Illinois fans are upset about it, but losses to Purdue and Rutgers are enough to rightly justify our exclusion.

I mean, we’ll probably go 5-7, but I’m staking my flag on August 13th that we don’t suck this year. Go Illini!
 
#171      
What do you like about his better? I’m just curious.
Just the outcome (7 - 5 vs 5 - 7). I'm not saying Nightman's is more accurate. I've stopped speculating on season outcomes. Every year I buy into the hype and then am let down. I've been burned to many times to remember (especially at my age, lol) Now I'm hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
 
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#172      
Just the outcome (7 - 5 vs 5 - 7). I'm not saying Nightman's is more accurate. I've stopped speculating on season outcomes. Every year I buy into the hype and then am let down. I've been burned to many times to remember (especially at my age, lol) Now I'm hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
Yeah I'm kind of in this boat. Just enjoying the ride. I was not optimistic about 2022, new OC, skeptical of DeVito(who committed when we still has Petersen, mind you), but finished way above expectations.

I felt better about 2023 than I did 2022 and it went upside down.

I am cautiously optimistic we hit a bowl game, but not expecting anything.
 
#175      
I think our offense will be upper half of the B1G good, but it's the D I'm worried about. Too many lapses last year and with The Law Firm gone we won't have as much ability to cover for them. While I think our O will be able to win us some game, our D will lose just as many for us. With the tough schedule, I see yet another 5-7 season, sadly, but hopefully we can pull one out we shouldn't and make a bowl game.
 
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