Last post because I'm realizing this is hopeless.
"A team returns 25 minutes vs our 18 for example. Big deal."
All the teams you mentioned return more than 25% of minutes and we return less than 18%.
School / returning minutes
Duke / 27%
UConn / 45%
Purdue / 54%
UNC / 48%
Auburn / 57%
Baylor / 33%
Illinois / 14%
But the difference between 14% and 25% is the equivalent of about 16 spots in the KenPom rankings. The difference between 14% and 35% is about 33 spots.
Continuity explains about 25% of the variance in a team's performance on average. Below is data from the NIL / Portal era.
View attachment 36681
But talent is important too. So is coaching. We are very well endowed in both departments. We will be good. You don't have to deny reality or make stuff up to think so.