If KU doesn’t join the B1G, I don’t see how they DON’T join the ACC.
Conference Realignment
- Status
If KU doesn’t join the B1G, I don’t see how they DON’T join the ACC.
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
⅔ of those are hard passes. What makes you think that Carolina is ready to bolt the ACC? The only way is if the ACC is destabilized. In that case, maybe, but UNC is not coming by itself.
Football drives the expansion bus
Basketball sits in the third to last row, just ahead of baseball and two rows ahead of all other sports
I just dont see a net $$ positive overall from adding KU. But I have been wrong before.........................once !!!!!!
and while KU is a "decent" school, its not a land grant school and not known for hard core science or research
this is 100% about money. if the slice of the pie is smaller for each school after expansion, why expand ?
money comes from adding bonafide football brands in states/markets that are growing and dynamic
if possible : adding ND, UT, A&M are all no brainers
since they arent, you only expand if you could pick off UVa, UNC, GTech, UGa, UF. I highly doubt any are in play or will be soon.
imo, whats much more likely is conference association - 2 or 3 leagues agreeing to scheduling in season non-con games and even post season stuff
Basketball sits in the third to last row, just ahead of baseball and two rows ahead of all other sports
I just dont see a net $$ positive overall from adding KU. But I have been wrong before.........................once !!!!!!
and while KU is a "decent" school, its not a land grant school and not known for hard core science or research
this is 100% about money. if the slice of the pie is smaller for each school after expansion, why expand ?
money comes from adding bonafide football brands in states/markets that are growing and dynamic
if possible : adding ND, UT, A&M are all no brainers
since they arent, you only expand if you could pick off UVa, UNC, GTech, UGa, UF. I highly doubt any are in play or will be soon.
imo, whats much more likely is conference association - 2 or 3 leagues agreeing to scheduling in season non-con games and even post season stuff
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
So I think the majority of us are in agreeance, KU 
, ISU 
. And the absolute dream scenario being adding both KU and ND.
, ISU . And the absolute dream scenario being adding both KU and ND.
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Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
It certainly shows in their football revenues. The link excludes media revenues, but interesting nonetheless.
Where does your school rank among richest and poorest Power 5 college football programs? New revenue figures for all 65
It took a little longer this year for the U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data dump. But the latest numbers are out now. See where your favorite program ranks in the numbers that actually matter most -- on the business end of college football.
www.google.com
edit: West Virginia and Georgia Tech are also much lower than I would have thought. Notre Dame would be a coup but they haven’t really seemed interested in the B1G.
soupy17
- MI
It certainly shows in their football revenues. The link excludes media revenues, but interesting nonetheless.
Where does your school rank among richest and poorest Power 5 college football programs? New revenue figures for all 65
It took a little longer this year for the U.S. Department of Education's Equity in Athletics Data dump. But the latest numbers are out now. See where your favorite program ranks in the numbers that actually matter most -- on the business end of college football.
edit: West Virginia and Georgia Tech are also much lower than I would have thought. Notre Dame would be a coup but they haven’t really seemed interested in the B1G.
What Georgia Tech brings is less about the revenue it generates for itself but more the revenue it could generate for the rest of the conference. Atlanta is the 7th largest media market in the US, getting BTN there generates more $$ for the conference as a whole.
How would you all receive a KU + GT expansion? To me the biggest argument is it's two very meh football programs. But you get a market expansion, academics fit, and clear strengthening of basketball.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
On that note, the ACC has either the worst or second worst media payout. Not sure if the PAC 12 is worse, but I think that makes some ACC schools a bit more ripe for the picking.
I hear you & to your point if you look at the budgets I linked above Kansas is above us and 3rd in the b12 behind OK/UT, but I'm still not sure Kansas moves the needle enough & I bet you could have had them last round if you wanted. I also don't think getting to 15 over 14 is a big win. At some point we stop taking teams & I think we need to get picky on market size and what they bring. Also the midwest/Kansas isn't a growing home market, if you could shake UNC open you would get an equivalent basketball brand, a bigger and growing market, and a higher potential football program. Contrary to that UNC is also below Kansas in revenue, but I think that is as much ACC TV deal; plus another team that likely slides in below us on the football side. Kansas might be a slight win, but they look closer to a tie to me.
Money talks
I hope that the Big Ten does their due diligence and talks with Fox and ABC/ESPN to find out how this will affect their current rights deals. I would be surprised if Kansas is a net gain, so why add a new member in a part of the country where growth is slowing and teams have to travel farther? Seems like it would be a panic move, which makes me fear the current conference leadership all the more.
1. UNC - Poor ACC payout (AAU Member/New Market)
2. Virginia - Poor ACC payout (AAU Member/New Market)
3. Kansas - Dissolving Big12 (AAU Member/New Market)
4. Texas A&M - SEC betrayal/Differentiate from Texas (AAU Member/New Market)
5. FSU - Poor ACC and poor FSU (National Brand/New Market)
IF B10 expands this is realistically (and I use that term about as loosely as I can) what you are looking at.
ISU, Okla St, WVU, and all the Texas schools are almost certainly not going to be invited. WVU -@mattcoldagelli’s favorite- at least has some B10 ties as their pres used to be the pres at Ohio State. But I don’t see how he could make up for the minimal market and academics that aren’t even close to being on par with Nebraska.
Key assumption: B10 expands.
Id say moderate confidence at least one of the schools they expand with is on that list and low confidence that it’s both.
2. Virginia - Poor ACC payout (AAU Member/New Market)
3. Kansas - Dissolving Big12 (AAU Member/New Market)
4. Texas A&M - SEC betrayal/Differentiate from Texas (AAU Member/New Market)
5. FSU - Poor ACC and poor FSU (National Brand/New Market)
IF B10 expands this is realistically (and I use that term about as loosely as I can) what you are looking at.
ISU, Okla St, WVU, and all the Texas schools are almost certainly not going to be invited. WVU -@mattcoldagelli’s favorite- at least has some B10 ties as their pres used to be the pres at Ohio State. But I don’t see how he could make up for the minimal market and academics that aren’t even close to being on par with Nebraska.
Key assumption: B10 expands.
Id say moderate confidence at least one of the schools they expand with is on that list and low confidence that it’s both.
Maybe but lets say you do poach an A&M or an FSU. You don’t want to stay at 15. Then maybe Kansas becomes palatable, right? On its own I’d say no way. Though with Warren helming the thing who knows.
Why does it “scare” you? If KU isn’t in our conference, why do we care if they are in the ACC, PAC 16 or whatever?
I’m not being flippant. I really don’t understand why people would care.
Other than revenue Lu could bring in, why would them going elsewhere be a big deal in any sense?
RedRocksIllini
- Morrison, CO
We need to think big and irrational. How about some combination of USC, UCLA and UW (Washington, not the one we already have)? Big TV markets, fit the academic/research $$ profile and all solid football names. Ok, they're a million miles away but all easy to fly to and a whole lot closer than Hawaii is to any of the Mountain West schools (I warned you I was going to go irrational).
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
The ACC would have far and away the best basketball conference allowing them the possibility to gain more money through cable rights, the ACC Network, and a streaming platform. The BTN shows a heck of a lot more basketball games than football. There's a pretty solid argument to be made that we should be trying to get the best product there to gain and maintain subscribers.
Ultimately, I'd like the B1G to be the best conference in the country. We just dropped the ball and gave that title to the SEC. I don't want to drop down to third. The lower in the pecking order you go the less likely your conference holds together. Our schools are already located in states that aren't exactly growing, which is going to cause problems. I don't want OSU or Michigan to look around in a couple of years and see the grass might be greener somewhere else. If that happens, I'm not sure where the beloved ends up.
mattcoldagelli
- Script Illinois Enthusiast
To add on to what @GallopingGhost said, this is kind of a zero-sum game. If your ultimate ambition is to raid the ACC in 8-10 years, letting them grab the KU basketball brand is detrimental to that because it strengthens the ACC.
And I know, I know, “but realignment has about football” - and it is until it’s about something else. If it were solely a football decision, do you think Rutgers and Maryland would be in the conference right now?
RedRocksIllini
- Morrison, CO
If the thought of Michigan and/or OSU bolting the B1G hasn't crossed Mr. Warren's mind, he's an even bigger idiot than we give him credit for.
It's a football decision because that's where the bulk of the media rights come from. And, yes, the addition of Rutgers and Maryland caused those numbers to jump significantly. Obviously, that was because of their market size, not football prowess. But it's football, not basketball, that generates the dollars. I just don't see Kansas being a net gain.
that's a tough list because you are mixing 2 criteria here & I would probably throw in GT/Clemson because I think they might be easier to get than UNC/VA, it is probably easier to break the list into 2 groups:
1) Availability - this is all the B12 other than Texas/Oklahoma and any other team not affiliated w/ B1G/SEC/ACC; ACC is ?, B12 falling apart helps ACC, but money disparity, pandemic impact on budgets, playoff scenarios, general nervousness that ACC is not the most stable could open someone up ( I would never have called MD ahead of time)
2) Desirability - In the B12 that is 1)Texas 2) OK, 3) Kansas and no one else, we have been debating if Kansas meets the threshold, & I think it is fair to ask if OK meets the threshold. If this opens up ACC; 1) ND, 2) UNC 3+) VA/GT/Clemson, maybe FSU. then maybe an outside chance a wildcard opens up like Texas A&M or the big has enough money they might be able to pry Colorado from the Pac12, I also suspect the big might be able to pry MO away from the SEC if they needed a 16th member to balance out.
Whatever happens, I think we can all agree that it will be awesome when we wind up in the East division so we can get steamrolled by tOSU every year.
I also think much of this was Delaney as it was the expanded market. The biggest deal came from ESPN/Fox Tier 1...by having the BTN with Fox I think he had a much better negotiating deal with ESPN and also to an extent with Fox as he had a viable option in the BTN to leverage. He went and signed a deal for half the rights with Fox for way more than anyone thought was possible, then ESPN couldn't afford to lose the rest of the B1G and basically matched that offer for the rest of the business.
the league office will do whatever they can to make everything super difficult for us .
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
I get it, I felt the same way initially. The last go around it was rammed into our heads that it's about football, stupid. My counter to you is that Kansas made more money in the Big 12 off their third-tier media rights than any other school in the conference other than UT, which had the Longhorn Network. That means on the open market, their basketball program was bringing in more money than Oklahoma's football program. Would you take Oklahoma right now? I bet you would. Well apparently, you'll make yourself more money if you take Kansas. It's one of the few basketball programs that busts up the "it's a football decision" argument.
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Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
BTN is already in the ATL market. It requires a separate sports package (w/ Comcrap) and I don't see those money-grubbers changing their tactics for Tech alums.
The reason I listed it that way is because in order to get a team from the ACC (Virginia, UNC and I’ll add Clemson and GT for you) I would think the B10 will have to first destabilize it somewhat. Otherwise the incentive for UNC or Virginia or Clemson or even GT is weaker. FSU is the domino piece because of their precarious financials which is reportedly why Jimbo Fisher left for A&M and their desirable National brand.
If you grab FSU, because of their National brand, the B10 weakens the ACC (leaves essentially one notable football team) and increases the leverage to pry away another ACC member, whomever that may be. I didn’t include Clemson because they aren’t AAU and idk that the B10 will stomach 2 more non AAU members. I didn’t include ND because they seem steadfast independent, or GT because they are a non-national brand and a non-flagship state school, in a non-contiguous state.
If you take Florida St. then the remaining ACC members, if offered a spot, will almost certainly have to take it. Because the Big10 and SEC will absolutely dwarf anything the ACC will be able to provide them.
So yeah, in summation, let’s call this move the ACC Gambit.
- Status