Pregame: Illinois vs Western Michigan, Saturday, September 17th, 3:00pm CT, ESPNews

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#51      
Second and Chalmers
Ransom Stoddard said:
Not sure where you get that. 7.5 point underdogs means that's where Vegas thinks they make their money.
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Again, where they think they make their money competing against the global elite of statistical analytics.

You think you see through the dumb money public narrative of the Vegas lines? Open up an account and test that theory. You'll have a blast for the first 15 minutes.
 
#52      
The Pontiff
Second and Chalmers said:
Not according to the oddsmakers who know infinitely more than both of us combined.
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My understanding is that Illinois opened as a 1-point favorite, so in theory, some parts of Vegas were thinking that Illinois would win the game, though albeit, it's probably more fair to say that they were putting it at as a toss up. As for the current spread, that's more of an effect of Vegas moving the line to try to balance out the betting rather than they now feeling that WMU is 3 1/2 points better. I'm sure all of us gamblers know this, but the last thing Vegas wants is to get burned with too much on one side.
 
#53      
Second and Chalmers
The Pontiff said:
My understanding is that Illinois opened as a 1-point favorite, so in theory, some parts of Vegas were thinking that Illinois would win the game, though albeit, it's probably more fair to say that they were putting it at as a toss up. As for the current spread, that's more of an effect of Vegas moving the line to try to balance out the betting rather than they now feeling that WMU is 3 1/2 points better. I'm sure all of us gamblers know this, but the last thing Vegas wants is to get burned with too much on one side.
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It says it opened at +1, but I don't see anywhere where it was actually ever offered at +1.

And yes, the lines do move in response to betting patterns, but again, that's money coming in from extraordinarily sophisticated professional gamblers, not Teddy Greenstein's bachelor party pouring in their journalism salaries against the Illini.

I know it's annoying when I belabor my point, so I'll stop here, I promise:

It doesn't compute for people that we could be 6-6, then 5-7, then hire Lovie freakin' Smith and somehow be an underdog at home to a MAC school like we're Kansas. It sounds like something out of the darkest depths of a Loren Tate "Illinois will always suck for all eternity and there's nothing we can do about it" column. I get that. But that is our present reality and I encourage our fans to anchor themselves in reality. The progress will come if we continue to invest and make the right decisions. We are not Kansas.
 
#54      
MadSeason
Second and Chalmers said:
It says it opened at +1, but I don't see anywhere where it was actually ever offered at +1.

And yes, the lines do move in response to betting patterns, but again, that's money coming in from extraordinarily sophisticated professional gamblers, not Teddy Greenstein's bachelor party pouring in their journalism salaries against the Illini.
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It is also very difficult even for the Sharks two weeks in to have everything nailed down. There is simply too small a sample size to draw definitive conclusions. This is particularly true for Illinois who has played 1 horrible team and one very good team. The have played 2 games on opposite ends of spectrum neither having sumilar talent like WMU. It isnt possible with any degree of certainty to know how they will react to W. Michigan.

Check back in after week 5 or 6 and I will pay closer attention to where the money flows.
 
#56      
Illiniaaron
BZuppke said:
This. I've never seen a seasoned QB with such poor form. At least a dozen off the back foot throws last week. Maybe you get away with that against lesser competition or in HS but if he hasn't done it by now, he never will be the QB we were hoping he would be. I'm sure every coach he has had has worked on this. He rarely drops back, stands strong and throws with good form. He personally has killed many of our drives over the last two years. He's a good kid and I wish him the best, but if he can't 90% of the time throw with good form and stand strong in the pocket as he's been coached to do, then he never will.
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I agree with all of what you have said here. I think a lot of fans (myself included) became over-excited when we heard Lunt was coming onboard, and he just does not have the talent to get the job done game-in, game-out in the Big Ten. It certainly would have helped him to have better o-lines and receivers than he has had to work with, but he doesn't have the ability to make plays when things break down due to a lack of athleticism. His lack of speed is stunning at times.
 
#57      
The Pontiff
Second and Chalmers said:
It says it opened at +1, but I don't see anywhere where it was actually ever offered at +1.

And yes, the lines do move in response to betting patterns, but again, that's money coming in from extraordinarily sophisticated professional gamblers, not Teddy Greenstein's bachelor party pouring in their journalism salaries against the Illini.

I know it's annoying when I belabor my point, so I'll stop here, I promise:

It doesn't compute for people that we could be 6-6, then 5-7, then hire Lovie freakin' Smith and somehow be an underdog at home to a MAC school like we're Kansas. It sounds like something out of the darkest depths of a Loren Tate "Illinois will always suck for all eternity and there's nothing we can do about it" column. I get that. But that is our present reality and I encourage our fans to anchor themselves in reality. The progress will come if we continue to invest and make the right decisions. We are not Kansas.
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Well, if you're privy to data that shows at what line this action was actually "offered", then I can't argue with that. :)

All I can see is where the line opened, and then something happened to move it 4 1/2 points. Maybe no action was taken when it opened and Vegas corrected it right away because the opening line was a mistake. Sure that's possible.

However, if one doesn't think the ESP gamblers aren't recognizing and betting all kinds of games, then that's just naive. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a syndicate's program flagged this game as a value at -1 and targeted it. That seems more likely than an immediate correction between the opening and bets being placed.

Sent from my BNTV400 using Tapatalk
 
#58      
IlliniInTexas
Ransom Stoddard said:
Not sure where you get that. 7.5 point underdogs means that's where Vegas thinks they make their money.
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2 ways to look at a betting line. There's the point spread (+7.5 to Illinois) and the money line (+250-300).

A 7.5 point line means roughly that Vegas expects UNC to win by more than 7.5 points 50% of the, and win by less than 7.5 points 50% of time (this of course, includes losing). You can think of this as risking $1 to win $1, excluding the vig.

With a money line, this assumes a 0 point line, or a straight up winner. Since UNC is favored, they would have to be expected to win more than 50% of the time. +300 means that you would risk $100 to win $300, or 25% implied odds. The actual money line changes depends on 2 things: 1) the kind of distribution curve you use (normal vs lognormal vs binomial, etc) and 2) the amount of volatility you assume. The 25-30% isn't a set in stone number, but in my experience, a touchdown favorite is almost always close to that range.

There are too many real sports bettors out there that Vegas has to be smart with their lines. Skewing in either direction means there will be all sorts of arbitrage opportunities, even with the house edge.
 
#59      
IlliniInTexas
Second and Chalmers said:
It says it opened at +1, but I don't see anywhere where it was actually ever offered at +1.
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Lines open at different times, and it's possible that Illinois -1 line was a preseason number, or a post week 1 number. Lines for the Mich-OSU game the last week of the B1G season was available to be bet before college football season began. I have no idea what the opening number references... I would use Monday afternoon before the game after the dust settles a little as a good opening print.
 
#61      
CARPET
That line of +3.5 for a wounded dog Illinois is just to good to pass up.

A trap maybe for Illinois bettors. (Oregon +3 vs the Corn Huskers is a real trap game)Let me dispel the thought that this is a trap for Illinois.

I have watched every game both these teams have played and I came away thinking Illinois is a better team especially against a run offense.

Lovie has told anyone that will listen there will be improvements this week and it will be out there for you to see. This I believe will ring true.

The Current line is ILLINOIS +3.5 and is dropping to +3.0. I suspect by game time this will be Illinois favored by 1 as money flows in driving the line.

The Over/Under is at 55.5 points- It will be interesting to see what direction this line moves.

I am all in taking ILLINOIS and all the points you will give.
 
#62      
jrichisamazing
Second and Chalmers said:
Props on the triple negative :thumb:

We have played two games and have looked very 3-9ish in both. That's not destiny, but it shows the kind of challenges that lay ahead.

We have a thin team with middling overall talent and pretty serious weaknesses in a couple of key position groups, plus a lack of experience with the system we're trying to play in. The experience will get better as the year goes along. The talent won't change. We have to cross our fingers and hope the depth doesn't get too much worse.
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How? We beat a nobody by 49 and were competitive for 3 quarters against the 2nd best team in the ACC, maybe the best if Clemson doesn't get it's act together.
 
#63      
StateFarmCenter
Yeah, saying we looked like a 3-9 team vs Murray state is a little ridiculous. I'm fine without taking anything positive from it because, well, it's Murray State, but come on now. Theres enough ammo in the UNC game to just pile on that.
 
#64      
Hamer
How are we looking on attendance for this game?
 
#65      
Illinivek23
Looking at WM depth chart up front - a pair of 6'5" 330 bookend tackles and a name at guard that should be familiar to Illini fans over the last 30 years.

LT 77 Okorafor, Chukwuma JR
LG 65 Day, Jackson SR 63
OC 52 Keenoy, John SO 67
RG 59 Juriga, Luke RS FR
RT 72 Moton, Taylor RS SR
 
#75      
CARPET
Work Glove time for Illinois.

Only 4 College teams will play against more 2015 Bowl Teams during the 2016 Season. The Illini are one of those 4 teams.

9 Bowl opponents 4 of which are ranked in the Top 25.

I know recruiting cures all but it will be interesting to see how this group of inherited players respond to a solid Coaching staff.

One thing that stands out to me is how Illinois Defense swarms to the ball as a team a marked improvement over last year with Intensity.
 
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