I normally hold very optimistic view on my Illini, but the last game totally turned my hope for this season into dust. Not saying I am jumping off the Lovie bandwagon, simply saying we need to be more realistic on our schedule. I feel like Lovie being hired as our head coach largely has overshadowed or made us blind to the sheer reality of a regime change and, with the coaching staff put together late in April followed by a delayed spring camp, I mean from an objective standpoint, there simply wasn't enough time for our guys to learn the new schemes and to be prepared to execute the plays called by an entirely new coaching staff (the below B1G average talent level on our roster has likely slow down this process). With that said, I think the growing pains we are experiencing now is likely to last longer than we'd like to think (or it is just me). Still have no doubt Lovie will eventually turn the program around, but like many posters suggested we have a long long way to go. I just don't see this team we saw against UNC last night suddenly become a competitive team capable of beating an explosive, well-coached WMU team.
Pregame: Illinois vs Western Michigan, Saturday, September 17th, 3:00pm CT, ESPNews
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Pretty sure it means nothing. Lovie said he's not addressing injuries, since he doesn't have to in college ball.
chief78
- Florida
I don't believe WMU is on UNC's level, talent wise. I did see an Illini team that was competitive for 3 quarters even with a sub par performance from Wes and a few key drops, not to mention the penalties. If the Illini play a reasonably 'clean' game (minimize the penalties) and Wes and the receivers get back on track, I believe they will win this game.
The players wanted to win on Saturday, resulting in a lot of emotional penalties/stupid mistakes. I think 55/100 times, UNC wins that game. WMU is not going to be anywhere near as close. I suspect we beat them handily. Interested to see what Lunt can do in Lincoln. Don't expect a win, but I'd like to see him be less awful under pressure.
Not even close. Not on the radar screen.
Honestly, I was on the more bullish side on our chances this year before the season, but having seen a couple of games now I understand where Vegas is coming from. We're better than the likes of Purdue or Rutgers just on sheer talent, but a weak o-line, a porous secondary, and an overall lack of experience in a new system make us a pretty easy mark for good teams.
It's not gonna be pretty this year, and probably not next either, but you don't just magically build it the offseason before you get good. The work starts the day you walk in the door.
Unfortunately, the name on the front of the opponent's jerseys means this is a game where we'll get no credit for a surprising win and will induce a panicky melt down for an easily and obviously predictable loss. I encourage the posters here to avoid falling into that narrative trap.
Illinisteve25
- Champaign
Come out play hard and win.... Is that to much to ask against WMU?
You obviously think WMU is the better team, so how good do you think they are? IMO UNC is the best team we will play all year outside of Michigan and maybe MSU. Definitely better than any of the B1G West teams. So I'm not sure they are a fair test of how good we are, especially considering how sloppy we were.
That's why I'm so excited for this game. Should be a much better test, and I think we will play a much cleaner game.
They ought to win the MAC pretty handily (especially getting NIU and Toledo at home) and if they beat us, going undefeated isn't out of the question.
We could potentially win this game. I wouldn't bet on us, but 3.5 point dogs win games all the time. I'm just trying to push back against what I know most average fans are doing - seeing a MAC opponent on the schedule, penciling it in as an easy win, and then freaking out like it's some indictment on the Lovie era when we lose.
I don't care how bad it may be, this is not Lovie's version of Beckman's Louisiana Tech game. Though, in fairness, that team was better than we gave them credit for at the time too.
After seeing the rise of all the non-traditional powers and conference realignments, i don't think average fans see teams by conference anymore. Houston, Boise St., NIU, Southern Miss, La. Tech, Troy you name it. Good teams are good teams
I also would think that if there was ever a fan base who didn't need to be reminded not to overlook a smaller conference team, it's this one.
Right. WMU is not on the same level as UNC who won the ACC division title last year. But, what I am concerned about is mistakes on our side rather than how good of a team the opponent is. I think even for a MAC-level team it is pretty easy to take advantage of undisciplined penalties, good field position, our weak depth on OL, and Wes choking in the pocket. And so, I just don't think you develop that kind of discipline over a week and play a 'clean' game. It takes time.
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I've mostly not posted in the football forum because I've been skeptical of us having any success this year since the start. The hire of Lovie was great, and in 3 years I expect competitive football. But we're not there right now.
As for the game this week, I see it as a toss up. I have no faith in Lunt. I think that he is the key, but I don't know what we'll get from him. We tend to talk about him "shrinking" against better competition, but I think it's more that he can't get away with throwing off his back foot in these games and he has no ability to deal with pressure. It's not that the moment is too big for him as much as it is that he doesn't have the skills to succeed. Given that our opponent has some pretty good players, I just don't know how his skills will play in this particular game. But I'm interested to see how the team responds.
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Simply incorrect. It's a solid AAC/Mountain West level team playing a MAC schedule. This statement is EXACTLY what I'm talking about.
Not according to the oddsmakers who know infinitely more than both of us combined.
I have no idea what WMU's facilities are like, but this is meaningless for this week's game.
Better coaches and better coaching are not the same thing in this context. I think PJ Fleck is an overrated charlatan (so glad he never ended up here), but 4 years with that staff and that system is better preparation than 5 months with Lovie. They will be executing what they do at a higher level than we will.
Again, you say "MAC" and that eliminates the possibility of thoughts like "they have out recruited us 2 of the last 4 years". And while we had multiple coaching changes and a lot of roster turnover, WMU is deep and experienced, with several NFL prospects on the team, including a receiver who will be neck and neck with Smoot for the best pro prospect on the field.
You'd take WMU's roster over ours.
Go for it. Gambling is fun! We could definitely find a way to win it (and I still don't trust Fleck, WMU could find a way to lose it).
Everyone is entitled to an opinion and a prediction. But that we are the underdog in this game is not a matter of debate, it's a matter of fact. And our fans are going to ignore that because of the assumptions they make about the name on the front of our opponents jerseys, as you just illustrated so perfectly.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
Ludacrisp. Try 90/100 and that may be optimistic.
You are far more optimistic about WMU than most Illini fans. Can we win? Of course. But this game should be a tossup. Hopefully, the team will bounce back from a pretty poor showing and redeem themselves. Lunt, in particular.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
This. I've never seen a seasoned QB with such poor form. At least a dozen off the back foot throws last week. Maybe you get away with that against lesser competition or in HS but if he hasn't done it by now, he never will be the QB we were hoping he would be. I'm sure every coach he has had has worked on this. He rarely drops back, stands strong and throws with good form. He personally has killed many of our drives over the last two years. He's a good kid and I wish him the best, but if he can't 90% of the time throw with good form and stand strong in the pocket as he's been coached to do, then he never will. I really think we would have won a game or two more last year with Reilly O'Toole.
We need to run the ball effectively and play good defense so as to not depend on Lunt as much. It's simply our only choice.
Illinifanatic4ever
- Orange & Blue Blood in my Veins
Chance of rain Saturday. Does this help or hurt our chances?
7.5 point underdogs implies ~25-30% odds of winning the game. In most worlds, we lose that game to NC, but let's not over or understate our chances just to fit a narrative.
There are 2 types of Illini fans that make me mad. The "we'll give up on our team after game 2" and the "we're a major conference power, we should beat any non-power 5 team handily." We're not that good right now, but we've been given no reason (so far) not to believe we can't make a bowl.
We've always known that we'd be underdogs to UNC and this week would be the defining game of our noncon. If I had to pick, I'd take Illinois +150. We know the talent level of WMich isn't the same as UNC, and we know that Fleck isn't a great in game coach. What we don't know is whether our defense can stay disciplined and execute tackles and whether our offensive line can open holes for Ke'Shawn.
I'm in this for the long haul now. Win or lose, I'll show a level of commitment to the program that matches our commitment from the University
Props on the triple negative :thumb:
We have played two games and have looked very 3-9ish in both. That's not destiny, but it shows the kind of challenges that lay ahead.
We have a thin team with middling overall talent and pretty serious weaknesses in a couple of key position groups, plus a lack of experience with the system we're trying to play in. The experience will get better as the year goes along. The talent won't change. We have to cross our fingers and hope the depth doesn't get too much worse.
JDHalfrack
- Springfield, IL
I agree with this to a point, but in reality, oddsmakers don't pick lines based on how they think the game will go. They pick lines based on how they think people will bet. It's about following the money to them, not whether or not they're right.
And in any case where the lines don't match up with the absolute state of the art of information and analytics, high volume bettors will take the sportsbooks to the cleaners.
Vegas lines aren't perfect, but they are the best predictors available anywhere.
The only Vegas numbers that are really affected by know-nothing public money are suckers bets like championship futures on massively popular teams. The Cubs to win the world series will always be a poor value, for example. But there's no way for sharks to pounce on something like that so the books are fine.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Not sure where you get that. 7.5 point underdogs means that's where Vegas thinks they make their money.
Lunt
Lunt's expression at halftime looked to me like that of someone who wanted to go home, rather than that of someone who was determined to get back out there and make up for a past mistake. But it also seemed to me that he wasn't giving up on the play as often as he has in the past, and I'm hopeful about that.
Lunt's expression at halftime looked to me like that of someone who wanted to go home, rather than that of someone who was determined to get back out there and make up for a past mistake. But it also seemed to me that he wasn't giving up on the play as often as he has in the past, and I'm hopeful about that.
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