Pregame: Illinois at Penn State, Saturday, September 28th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

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#251      
Coach wasn't blitzing in 1st half against Nebraska and the game thread on here was going nuclear. We did this for a reason. Penn St. is going to try and rush for 8 yards per carry and if we slow them down, not a chance of 17.5 spread. I'm taking under and my Illini with points. It will be a glorious Saturday if we win outright.
 
#252      
During the 2023 game, with 4 turnovers and a game that the Illini seemed lost at times, Penn State only won by 17 points. I have not bet, so I am not sure how the whole thing works.

This season
- Penn State has won their games with an avg score of 41-13
(wins over West Virginia, Bowling Green, and Kent State)

- Illinois has won their games with an avg score of 32-12
(wins over EIU, KU, CMU, and UNL)


Without any sophisticated data analysis, I would have anticipated the spread to be about 9 points (difference in our scoring for the year).
The new OC for Ped. St. is the same guy who was the OC at Kansas last year... Sooooo.... IF Aaron really did watch that Kansas game film from last year 100 times, it should be a help for this weekend.... I do think Ped St. will prevail this time, however I believe we'll cove the spread and make it close...
 
#253      
This is definitely the "Prove It" game, and (because of the implications brought about by a winning outcome) by far the biggest game in BB's tenure.

I have a reverse Han Solo about this one.

GO GET 'EM FELLAS!
I think the Nebraska game was our "prove it" game for (A) us to be thought of as a legitimately good team this year and (B) the narrative start to shift toward "Illinois since Bielema got there" being consistently competitive. Regarding point (B), we were kind of hanging in the balance after last year. Everyone gave him a pass for 5-7 in his first year (and a lot probably saw it as an impressive improvement), and 2022 was definitely a surprise success. However, 2023 did its best to erase that momentum, and we came into this season with zero hype from non-Illini fans. I think getting that #24 ranking and proceeding to beat another top 25 team on the road in a VERY hostile environment was quite the statement.

So, I think we come out "on pace" if we at least play PSU tough ... very few people are expecting us to beat a top 10 team on the road in a "Whiteout Energy"-type environment, and probably for good (objective) reason. If we win on Saturday, what we "proved" is that we just might be a CFP contender, as crazy as that sounds. Obviously, a letdown is totally possible one week, but if you can beat #9 Penn State in Happy Valley, you at least stand a chance to win out after that. On that point, I DEFINITELY agree it's the biggest game of BB's tenure! Winning this one is a MASSIVE statement to the college football world that you can't blame this on KU being overrated or Nebraska always choking ... this isn't your daddy's Illini, they are for real, and they're here to stay. :cool:
 
#254      
We're gettin' some love over on Black Shoe Diaries. They see Saturday's night's game as a big one. Then there's this. I'll ignore that they believe they're better than Oregon, and somehow thought that UCLA was the 10th best team preseason. I like the Illini trajectory here. "Pretty pretty pretty good," as Larry would say.


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I don't think Indiana is getting enough respect...I know that they haven't really played anyone yet, but they are taking care of business, absolutely crushing the opposition. I haven't checked, but they must be among the leaders in point differential through the first few games.
 
#255      
I think the Nebraska game was our "prove it" game for (A) us to be thought of as a legitimately good team this year and (B) the narrative start to shift toward "Illinois since Bielema got there" being consistently competitive. Regarding point (B), we were kind of hanging in the balance after last year. Everyone gave him a pass for 5-7 in his first year (and a lot probably saw it as an impressive improvement), and 2022 was definitely a surprise success. However, 2023 did its best to erase that momentum, and we came into this season with zero hype from non-Illini fans. I think getting that #24 ranking and proceeding to beat another top 25 team on the road in a VERY hostile environment was quite the statement.

So, I think we come out "on pace" if we at least play PSU tough ... very few people are expecting us to beat a top 10 team on the road in a "Whiteout Energy"-type environment, and probably for good (objective) reason. If we win on Saturday, what we "proved" is that we just might be a CFP contender, as crazy as that sounds. Obviously, a letdown is totally possible one week, but if you can beat #9 Penn State in Happy Valley, you at least stand a chance to win out after that. On that point, I DEFINITELY agree it's the biggest game of BB's tenure! Winning this one is a MASSIVE statement to the college football world that you can't blame this on KU being overrated or Nebraska always choking ... this isn't your daddy's Illini, they are for real, and they're here to stay. :cool:
That's exactly what the "prove it" was. Next level. We win that and *gulp* we can have a scary good season.
 
#256      
Looks i’m going to be in north chicago dropping my kid off saturday. Does anyone know of a good sports bar for game watching near lincoln and bertaue avenue?
The Wild Goose about one block north on Lincoln is a great sports bar. Has more than ten screens.
 
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#258      
.....So, I think we come out "on pace" if we at least play PSU tough ... very few people are expecting us to beat a top 10 team on the road in a "Whiteout Energy"-type environment, and .......

wattsthesafeword-wts.gif
 
#260      
I absolutely love our coaches and the Family in ILL. From Henry, Tank, and coach B, simply love the culture that is being established. As a young man in 80's and early 90's it is so fun to be competitive again. Let's go to pedoville and give them all they want. I have confidence that we will show up and give them all they can handle.
 
#261      
It looks like we have an X-factor for game day: Hurricane Helene. The stats show that PSU has the advantage in the running game, but in the rain? It’s anyone’s guess. This could turn into a battle in the trenches. Run wild baby!!
 
#264      
I have a white script Illinois hoodie (like the basketball team's jerseys) that I adore.

I would absolutely shell out $80 for another one that had the Illinois stiched on instead of screen printed.
When the baseball team went on their run last spring I went to gameday to see if they had the baby blue baseball jersey and wow- feeling that cheap silkscreened trash they called a jersey was so disappointing.
 
#267      
I' trying to wrap my head around how people think a 19 point victory is likely... then I saw a video where someone was predicting scores for this weekend and had 38-17 Penn State and realized that I could actually see that happening...

I don't think it will, but it's not out of realm of possibility.

Head pick: PSU 30-Ill 21
Heart Pick: ILL 28-PSU24
 
#271      
This is what I love about college football. Nobody really knows if Luke's jump is as real as it looks right now. Nobody really knows how good our WR room is or can be. There is just so many unknowns

When a college QB makes a huge leap from one year to the next, he is going to win games that you may have thought we didn't have a realistic chance. (Hi Nebraska!)

This includes the national media and predictors going off of previous performance metrics. It only tells you so much.

Luke has clearly made a jump. The WR room is clearly a difference maker. We'll know just how big soon enough.:illinois:

(And yes...the bold is me trolling myself!:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:)
I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
 
#272      
I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
Playing in the same system for multiple years really helps. It's overlooked given how high profile QB transfers are, but multiple year starter is so underrated and possibly will even be forgotten as the game goes on.
 
#273      
I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
I agree with this as well. I think he's only been sacked 7 times this year thus far, and I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that like 3 to 5 of those have been self-inflicted sacks (as in, the OLine did their job; Luke just held on to the ball way longer than he should have). The Oline seems completely on a different level this year. I think this weekend's game will be huge in determining if that's still legit.
 
#274      
This such an interesting game. How much can you take away from last year's matchup given all the turnovers we committed, their new OC, and our much-improved defense? It's a fact that we're a better team than we were in 2023, can you say the same about Penn St yet? Can't wait.
 
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