we don’t need a miracle to go 1-3 or even 2-2 vs the 4 tough ones of the next 5 , but we need solid play from the whole team .
much like the game we played at scUM in 2022 and the refs jobbed us
Eh, I see it primarily as a semantics argument on what a miracle constitutes, but I don't have any issue with anyone saying it'd take a miracle to win at least 2 of @Neb, @PSU, vPur, vMich, @Ore. Most years in the past 30, that's a 1-4 if not an 0-5 for us. Agreed though that thus far this doesn't seem like most years and I also think an O/U of 1.5 wins seems fair. Right now based on how teams are playing I'd go with the follow likelihoods:
Very little chance:
@Oregon- The only real chance we have of beating them is if this is a game they are sluggish and don't show up for. It does happen a couple times each year for them, but if they do show up as they do in most games, they should run us off the field.
Low chance:
@Neb- I think they're for real. They've always had a major talent advantage, they just also had a terrrrrrrible coach in Frost. They're playing good smart tough football this season, and them not doing that was the biggest reason they haven't been regularly getting 8-9 win seasons in the B10. We can beat them, and I think the Scotts can bait Raiola into some bad reads, but they should absolutely dominate us in the trenches and us playing in our first road game against a rejuvenated hyped up crowd is tough.
@PSU- I think PSU will be more susceptible than Neb, but not because of the on paper talent or expectations. Sadly they play UCLA right after us instead of USC, so we won't be a pure trap game, but I think Nebraska will teach us more about our line deficiencies and should help us gameplan for a similarly stout PSU front. As well, Franklin has shown himself to be extremely stubborn and resistant to make adjustments especially defensively, so if we find something that works and play good defense, I can easily see this one being a one possession game late. Would be a tough low chance win, but it's definitely possible
Slight dog trending towards tossup:
vMich- Michigan has looked completely out of sorts this season and ripe for the taking, but they are still Michigan. They will have a talent advantage and a ref advantage against us. This looks to be a winnable game, but we're still going to have to play good football to get it done.
Moderate Favorite:
vPur- There is no reason we shouldn't win this game other than them being our kryptonite for whatever reason. We should beat this team as it is not good, but they've also been not good for years yet somehow play out of their minds against us year in and year out.
Overall, our expected wins against this lineup is probably somewhere near 1.5. We'd need to decently overachieve to get 2. So not a miracle but still tough, unless you deem Purdue from a recent history perspective, in which case miracle seems accurate
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