Pregame: Illinois vs Eastern Illinois, Thursday, August 29th, 8:00pm CT, BTN

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#76      
TheFlyingIllini1317
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
Not sure if it's by popular demand, but the Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch ticket tracker is back for another season! Below is the current status of ticket sales for the EIU game.

View attachment 36032

Unfortunately, this is solidly below sales for Toledo in week 1 last season - about 4,200 tickets short of where the Toledo ticket tracker count ended up (46,546). With the Thursday night game and relative lack of excitement compared to last year, this is not all that unsurprising. But there are six days until gameday and a great weather forecast, perhaps announced attendance eclipses 45,000.

For those new to the Sellout Watch ticket tracker, here is a brief overview:
1. I'm weirdly obsessed with following if/when Memorial Stadium will break its streak of not having a sellout since the North Carolina game in 2016. I hardly post about anything else.
2. Using a tracker I built in Excel, I review the Illinois tickets website multiple times in the days preceding a game and estimate how many tickets have been sold.
3. The tracking process has some inherent limitations, mostly in that the status of large swaths of tickets are not publicly available. Generally the counts reported from the tracker are conservative and have trailed announced attendance by approximately 2,500.
4. Using the tracker and other situational assumptions, I typically provide an official attendance guess in the hours ahead of kickoff. Last season my guesses varied from actual attendance by an average of 843 per game (excluding the FAU game where the DIA gave away thousands of free tickets to teachers/educators).

I'll wrap up this post by making one bold prediction. I take no joy predicting this, but the Michigan game on October 19 will not be a sellout, and it won't be particularly close. Based on what I'm seeing, there are way too many tickets available - and at a premium price point - that they simply won't have enough demand to pack the place absent the team outperforming expectations significantly in the first six weeks. That's a shame because it will be a really special day, and one that should be celebrated by the fanbase.
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It is popular demand! We love these.
 
#78      
illinoistradition
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
Not sure if it's by popular demand, but the Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch ticket tracker is back for another season! Below is the current status of ticket sales for the EIU game.

View attachment 36032

Unfortunately, this is solidly below sales for Toledo in week 1 last season - about 4,200 tickets short of where the Toledo ticket tracker count ended up (46,546). With the Thursday night game and relative lack of excitement compared to last year, this is not all that unsurprising. But there are six days until gameday and a great weather forecast, perhaps announced attendance eclipses 45,000.

For those new to the Sellout Watch ticket tracker, here is a brief overview:
1. I'm weirdly obsessed with following if/when Memorial Stadium will break its streak of not having a sellout since the North Carolina game in 2016. I hardly post about anything else.
2. Using a tracker I built in Excel, I review the Illinois tickets website multiple times in the days preceding a game and estimate how many tickets have been sold.
3. The tracking process has some inherent limitations, mostly in that the status of large swaths of tickets are not publicly available. Generally the counts reported from the tracker are conservative and have trailed announced attendance by approximately 2,500.
4. Using the tracker and other situational assumptions, I typically provide an official attendance guess in the hours ahead of kickoff. Last season my guesses varied from actual attendance by an average of 843 per game (excluding the FAU game where the DIA gave away thousands of free tickets to teachers/educators).

I'll wrap up this post by making one bold prediction. I take no joy predicting this, but the Michigan game on October 19 will not be a sellout, and it won't be particularly close. Based on what I'm seeing, there are way too many tickets available - and at a premium price point - that they simply won't have enough demand to pack the place absent the team outperforming expectations significantly in the first six weeks. That's a shame because it will be a really special day, and one that should be celebrated by the fanbase.
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I just don’t understand how the DIA cannot get this figured out. Why are single game tickets in the upper deck corners still as expensive as they are? Those sections are dead for most games, yet they are the ones front and center when they report from the booth. It is sad to see each time!
 
#81      
Fighter of the Nightman
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
Not sure if it's by popular demand, but the Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch ticket tracker is back for another season! Below is the current status of ticket sales for the EIU game.

View attachment 36032

Unfortunately, this is solidly below sales for Toledo in week 1 last season - about 4,200 tickets short of where the Toledo ticket tracker count ended up (46,546). With the Thursday night game and relative lack of excitement compared to last year, this is not all that unsurprising. But there are six days until gameday and a great weather forecast, perhaps announced attendance eclipses 45,000.

For those new to the Sellout Watch ticket tracker, here is a brief overview:
1. I'm weirdly obsessed with following if/when Memorial Stadium will break its streak of not having a sellout since the North Carolina game in 2016. I hardly post about anything else.
2. Using a tracker I built in Excel, I review the Illinois tickets website multiple times in the days preceding a game and estimate how many tickets have been sold.
3. The tracking process has some inherent limitations, mostly in that the status of large swaths of tickets are not publicly available. Generally the counts reported from the tracker are conservative and have trailed announced attendance by approximately 2,500.
4. Using the tracker and other situational assumptions, I typically provide an official attendance guess in the hours ahead of kickoff. Last season my guesses varied from actual attendance by an average of 843 per game (excluding the FAU game where the DIA gave away thousands of free tickets to teachers/educators).

I'll wrap up this post by making one bold prediction. I take no joy predicting this, but the Michigan game on October 19 will not be a sellout, and it won't be particularly close. Based on what I'm seeing, there are way too many tickets available - and at a premium price point - that they simply won't have enough demand to pack the place absent the team outperforming expectations significantly in the first six weeks. That's a shame because it will be a really special day, and one that should be celebrated by the fanbase.
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ABSOLUTELY by popular demand! I also love this kind of stuff (obviously, lol...), and these posts are a highlight of my week here on Loyalty before games. Please keep 'em coming, and thank you for your work!!

As far as the rest, I had a couple main thoughts for discussion.

1. This EIU guess does not surprise me, especially if you say you are often about 2,500 below the announced number due to your method being conservative. If your tracker is around 44k or so, that would put final attendance for next Thursday around 46.5k - a 5-10% decrease from what we'd expect for a Saturday crowd. Maybe we will get the point where we expect 60k every week, but it will take time!

2. It is very frustrating to me that we allow tickets to go unsold, but I understand the rationale for the DIA. As others have said, as soon as it becomes known that the DIA gives out unsold tickets, the ticket sales we DO have will decrease as people just wait for the week-of discounts. Also, others have speculated that the DIA makes more money selling 45k-50k tickets at "market price" rather than selling 55k due to severely decreased ticket prices. I have not seen the math, of course.

3. With all that said, I think we CAN sell out Michigan, but it will indeed require a good start (4 wins going into the Michigan game). I would THINK this would be the one week that the DIA would swallow its pride and/or make an exception to make sure the stands are full. You need AT LEAST 55k-56k for that whole hyped up event to not be an embarrassment, as that's the threshold where it LOOKS like a sellout. There is a very good chance that the Michigan game would be on a prime channel like FOX if we have a nice start, and they will play up the fanfare of the anniversary and the throwback vibe ... it would be humiliating to have a half-empty East Balcony.

4. I am curious what the attendance for KU will be like. If we can pull 45k or so for EIU (and can win comfortably), you would think that we'd get at least 5k more in the stands just because of (1) a more exciting opponent, (2) it being on a Saturday and (3) the night game start time. If we get over 50k in the stands vs. KU, you can at least create some atmosphere. If you get 55k or more, you start talking about an actual home field advantage.

5. For fun, this is my total guess on attendance IF we kept winning each game, starting with a base of 45k for Eastern Illinois ... it also assumes for simplicity's sake that we do not stub our toe vs. EIU or CMU.

Eastern Illinois
45,000 or so

Kansas
52,500

Central Michigan (Homecoming)
51,000 if we beat KU
49,000 if we lose to KU in a close game
47,000 if we get blown out vs. KU

--- Illini are 2-1 or 3-0 before traveling to Nebraska and PSU ---

Purdue
57,000 if we are 5-0
56,000 if we are 4-1
54,000 if we are 3-2 (i.e., we beat one of KU, Nebraska or PSU)
50,000 if we are 2-3

Michigan
50,000 if we are 2-4 (only wins are EIU and CMU)
52,000 if we are 3-3 (with wins over EIU, CMU and Purdue)
53,500 if we are 3-3 (with wins over EIU, CMU and KU/Nebraska/PSU)
56,000 if we are 4-2
60,670 if we are 5-1 or better

TL;DR ... I think we will be flirting with a sellout for the Michigan game if we can get to 4 wins AND pass the eye test. Personally, considering it would be in front of the home fans, I think beating KU would do the best to help attendance. Over the past couple of seasons under BB, a lot of our most impressive wins have been on the road, only to come home in front of a larger crowd and faceplant. As far as getting fans in the stands, beating KU is probably more important than walking into Lincoln or even Happy Valley and getting a W.
 
#82      
Battle89
Fighter of the Nightman said:
4. I am curious what the attendance for KU will be like. If we can pull 45k or so for EIU (and can win comfortably), you would think that we'd get at least 5k more in the stands just because of (1) a more exciting opponent, (2) it being on a Saturday and (3) the night game start time. If we get over 50k in the stands vs. KU, you can at least create some atmosphere. If you get 55k or more, you start talking about an actual home field advantage.
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Curious, for folks that attend games in general, is your preference a day game or a night game? I personally prefer a day game, a cool fall Saturday afternoon with sunny blue skies as the 'roof' of the stadium. This is the most enjoyable to me and the best visual experience. Night games are okay (I was at the UNC game in 2016) but a lesser experience for me. Sounds from the above that others feel differently though.
 
#83      
illinoisfootball
Battle89 said:
Curious, for folks that attend games in general, is your preference a day game or a night game? I personally prefer a day game, a cool fall Saturday afternoon with sunny blue skies as the 'roof' of the stadium. This is the most enjoyable to me and the best visual experience. Night games are okay (I was at the UNC game in 2016) but a lesser experience for me. Sounds from the above that others feel differently though.
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I prefer day games, the cool afternoon to be more precise. Also because we have a long drive and driving late isn't fun.
 
#85      
Fighter of the Nightman
Battle89 said:
Curious, for folks that attend games in general, is your preference a day game or a night game? I personally prefer a day game, a cool fall Saturday afternoon with sunny blue skies as the 'roof' of the stadium. This is the most enjoyable to me and the best visual experience. Night games are okay (I was at the UNC game in 2016) but a lesser experience for me. Sounds from the above that others feel differently though.
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I'm in your camp. Growing up, to me a picturesque college football setting was a crisp morning in early October before an 11:00 am game. However, in towns like Champaign/Iowa City/Bloomington/etc., I understand that the outrageous hotel prices likely prohibit a Friday night trip for many families, and an 11:00 am game is nearly impossible to attend for out-of-towners who don't get there on Friday ... at least if they want to tailgate, and I am not watching a football game without a proper buzz, myself. :ROFLMAO:

Just for fun, I wanted to look at our attendance by start time in the BB Era, limiting it only to Saturdays and excluding Northwestern due to its abnormally awful attendance every year for Thanksgiving Weekend:

11:00 AM START
53,157 in 2023 vs. Indiana
49,099 in 2023 vs. #7 Penn State
45,683 in 2022 vs. Minnesota (Homecoming)
45,574 in 2022 vs. Purdue (side note, I was there and it was SO cold, lol...)
41,064 in 2021 vs. Nebraska* (home opener)
36,942 in 2021 vs. Rutgers
30,559 in 2021 vs. Charlotte
---> Average of 43,154

2:30 PM OR 3:00 PM START
56,092 in 2022 vs. Michigan State
54,205 in 2023 vs. Wisconsin (Homecoming)
53,512 in 2023 vs. FAU
40,168 in 2021 vs. Wisconsin (Homecoming)
37,832 in 2022 vs. Wyoming (home opener)
33,669 in 2022 vs. Virginia
---> Average of 45,913

6:30 PM OR 7:00 PM START
48,898 in 2023 vs. Toledo
44,910 in 2022 vs. Iowa
33,906 in 2021 vs. UTSA
---> Average of 42,571

* Actually a 12:00 pm start for Week Zero.

Probably too small of a sample size to conclude anything, haha. Also, a pretty dramatic increase in attendance starting with the Iowa game in 2022 really skews things (i.e., any game from 2021 or early 2022 is going to drag down that category). For reference (using an even smaller sample size!!), here are the averages starting with that Iowa game:

11:00 am: 48,378
2:30 pm: 54,603
6:30 pm: 46,904

So I would at least say there is some circumstantial evidence that a 2:30 pm game helps bump attendance up a bit vs. an 11:00 am game. However, as I said earlier, those 11:00 am games are the college football equivalent of a 1:20 pm Cubs game to me ... just classic.
 
#86      
Mr. Tibbs
2:30 kickoff afternoon games are by far the most preferred .

for those that live 2.5 hours away , you can leave the house at 8, and get back home by 9-10pm.

once you get to a certain age , driving home at mid nite is difficult
 
#90      
Dkayak
illinoistradition said:
I just don’t understand how the DIA cannot get this figured out. Why are single game tickets in the upper deck corners still as expensive as they are? Those sections are dead for most games, yet they are the ones front and center when they report from the booth. It is sad to see each time!
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Because unless the adjacent sections are largely sold out you could buy corner tickets and sit elsewhere. Lower pricing in the corners only works once you approach a sellout.

When we used to buy East Balcony seats, we’d retreat beneath if it rained. Those obstructed seats are actually pretty nice.
 
#91      
redwingillini11
Mr. Tibbs said:
2:30 kickoff afternoon games are by far the most preferred .

for those that live 2.5 hours away , you can leave the house at 8, and get back home by 9-10pm.

once you get to a certain age , driving home at mid nite is difficult
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As a 30+ year old from the suburbs who doesn't really want to pay hundreds of dollars for a mediocre hotel room, night games are not an attractive idea anymore. I think it's great for students and locals once or twice a season. But I am fairly annoyed with Robert complaining on Twitter that the game isn't selling out because people don't want to go to a night game. Not everyone can bop over to the stadium in 10 minutes (even though I wish I could). We should hopefully sell out the big afternoon games like Michigan. Let's just start with that.
 
#92      
Fighter of the Nightman
On this note of the hotel rooms, I am really surprised that the Airbnb market in Champaign-Urbana is still so weak. We stayed at a nice house a mile west of Memorial Stadium last year, enjoyed a pleasant walk to the stadium and stayed for two nights at a price that was like half of what you'd pay for a crap hotel room, lol. I know we have not been amazing at football and our attendance lags significantly behind our Big Ten peers, but you would think there would be a market for a group of friends to come to Champaign for the weekend and split an Airbnb.
 
#93      
Illinivek23
redwingillini11 said:
As a 30+ year old from the suburbs who doesn't really want to pay hundreds of dollars for a mediocre hotel room, night games are not an attractive idea anymore. I think it's great for students and locals once or twice a season. But I am fairly annoyed with Robert complaining on Twitter that the game isn't selling out because people don't want to go to a night game. Not everyone can bop over to the stadium in 10 minutes (even though I wish I could). We should hopefully sell out the big afternoon games like Michigan. Let's just start with that.
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After saying I was going to be cost effective and sleep in the car or pitch a tent somewhere after the game instead of making the drive back to the suburbs, my wife decided to go with me to EIU. Got a hotel room for $140 near the mall. Not bad and totally unexpected price.
 
#96      
ILL48
CheifKeith91 said:
By some miracle I'm on the injured list from work and was able to convince my retired alumni Dad up to the game. What's the best parking lot situation where he doesn't have to walk over 2 miles?
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Take the bus at Goodwin and university. Drops off at southeast corner of Memorial. $2 pays both ways.
 
#99      
IlliniCardinal
Dkayak said:
Maybe I’m unusual, but not interested in being out that far into the wee hours of the morning, not when an earlier time is every bit as feasible. Why not 6 or 7pm? Are they thinking folks will jump out of work at 4-5pm and drive up to 3-4 hours to get there? Then home at 3-4am? Sound like fun? It’s fine for those staying the night of course. I’m only two hours away but might stay home for this one. Maybe poor attendance will send a message re: scheduling.
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This is the point that Robert is trying to address with his views on fan support. Poor attendance is driving less than optimal start times. When more fans start showing up the start times will get better.
 
#100      
IlliniCardinal
TheFlyingIllini1317 said:
It is popular demand! We love these.
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I agree. I really appreciate the analysis and updates regarding attendance predictions. Please keep them coming.

However, I couldn’t like the post because of the comment about the Michigan game not selling out. Not that I disagree with your analysis, but it would be disappointing if we don’t have a full house for that game. I hope a strong start to the season proves this prediction wrong.

Go Illini! And thanks again for the attendance analysis.
 
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