Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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#51      
Ole Miss was 11-3 and plays in SEC (arguable the best football conference for past 10 years).

Michigan 2023
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#52      
Heck, I think you could start a really compelling narrative that Bielema, with another .500 or better season, and Illinois are the place to go if you want to be certain the head coach is still there when you finish your college degree. This might be a shock to some folks but Beilema is already the 6th longest-tenured B1G coach (out of 18). Only Fleck, Locks, Day, Ferentz, and Schiano have been around longer than him. Not likely, but it's possible a couple of those names are gone next year.
 
#53      
Keep in mind, outside of the top 200-300 recruits, recruits are simply ranked based on the school they choose to go to.

From a recent article by Robert on Illiniboard:

“The national websites apparently no longer rate every recruit and just slot them based on the school they choose (with a sprinkle of inflation every year!). From my research in that article:

Individual player ratings from 247 for players in our 2014 class: 70, 76, 77, 78, 78, 79, 79, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 85, 88, 91, 96.

Individual player ratings from 247 for our 2024 class: 82, 85, 85, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 87, 87, 88, 88, 88, 88, 88”


In 2014, our recruiting ratings ranged from 70 to 96. In 2024, our ratings range from 82-88.

In another article from Robert in the past few days, he also makes the point that a kid’s sophomore film will have 3,000+ views, whereas his senior film will have 20 views, even though senior film is infinitely more valuable to ranking recruits.
HUDL and instant access to film, the shift in attention to the transfer portal, and easier scoops from camps has made a lot of recruiting "analysts" focus on breadth instead of depth.

It's more cost efficient for these recruiting sites to just sell Kool Aid on your typical top-1000 recruit than to spend the time to properly evaluate
 
#54      
No, his seat is not hot. He has the best record of any Illinois' football coach since Mackovic. By a comfortable margin.


There are warning signs, like the '25 HS recruiting class. I put up a data-filled post during the spring showing that Illinois' 2024 class was very, very underrated. When I put up that same data for the 2025 class based on where things stand, it's going to be a much colder reality. There were plenty of big misses, especially in-state. That said, the transfer portal is going to be an important component for this stuff going forward. This means that Bielema and his staff have some redemption opportunities come December through June.

It becomes the blurring of results and expectations but Bielema and staff need to find a way to get at least six wins this year. 6-6 with a bowl and you can spin a much more optimistic picture going into the 2026 class. Speaking to the positive PR and narrative that Illinois could craft with a .500 or better season, if Illinois goes 6-6 and win a bowl game:

(1) First time for three bowl games in five seasons (ignoring COVID year) since 2007-2011 (17 seasons)
(1) The best three-year stretch for Illinois football by total wins since 1999-2000-2001 (25 seasons)
(2) The first time that Illinois won at least three conference games over a three-season stretch since 1993-1994-1995 (31 seasons)
(3) Ignoring the shortened COVID season, this would be the first stretch of six consecutive seasons with four regular season wins (or more) since 1990-1995 (34 seasons)
This is disheartening.....but it is what it is. Or, was what it was?
 
#55      
Keep in mind, outside of the top 200-300 recruits, recruits are simply ranked based on the school they choose to go to.

From a recent article by Robert on Illiniboard:

“The national websites apparently no longer rate every recruit and just slot them based on the school they choose (with a sprinkle of inflation every year!). From my research in that article:

Individual player ratings from 247 for players in our 2014 class: 70, 76, 77, 78, 78, 79, 79, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 85, 88, 91, 96.

Individual player ratings from 247 for our 2024 class: 82, 85, 85, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 86, 87, 87, 88, 88, 88, 88, 88”


In 2014, our recruiting ratings ranged from 70 to 96. In 2024, our ratings range from 82-88.

In another article from Robert in the past few days, he also makes the point that a kid’s sophomore film will have 3,000+ views, whereas his senior film will have 20 views, even though senior film is infinitely more valuable to ranking recruits.
I think Mike Farrell (?) said something similar on a recent podcast. Illinois recruit. Auto 3 star, and they do not spend resources to go back and reevaluate at a later date.
 
#57      
Keep in mind, outside of the top 200-300 recruits, recruits are simply ranked based on the school they choose to go to.

From a recent article by Robert on Illiniboard:

.....

In another article from Robert in the past few days, he also makes the point that a kid’s sophomore film will have 3,000+ views, whereas his senior film will have 20 views, even though senior film is infinitely more valuable to ranking recruits.

Rankings can always have criticism, but when the schools that consistently rank in the top ~40 are the same schools that consistently go to quality bowl games, then you can't ignore the correlation. Outside of the occasional anomaly season (2022?), if we recruit at the levels we have the last few seasons, we will be a bottom quartile team in the conference.
 
#58      
Rankings can always have criticism, but when the schools that consistently rank in the top ~40 are the same schools that consistently go to quality bowl games, then you can't ignore the correlation. Outside of the occasional anomaly season (2022?), if we recruit at the levels we have the last few seasons, we will be a bottom quartile team in the conference.
For sure, that’s why recruiting experts stopped evaluating prospects.

It’s way easier to say:

Michigan recruit: 5 star.
Iowa recruit: 4 star.
Illinois recruit: 3 star.

Than to actually evaluate film for thousands of recruits and assign a true grade. Just let the schools evaluate prospects for you.

—> And for the most part, the recruiting sites get it right. If Michigan signs a player, that player probably *is* better than an Illinois player, so why spend so much time on evaluation?

Today though, offer lists are much more valuable than player grades and it seems as though the players were landing have offer lists better than they used to. I believe a poster here has shared some of that data in the past.
 
#59      
Again, look at offer lists not star ratings. The players we are getting now generally have more P5 offers than our recruits from 4-5 years ago, so given the laziness of the ranking sites (and Robert has gone over this many times), and given our transfers have generally been impact players, I feel reasonably okay with where recruiting is and has been under Bielema.
 
#60      
For sure, that’s why recruiting experts stopped evaluating prospects.

It’s way easier to say:

Michigan recruit: 5 star.
Iowa recruit: 4 star.
Illinois recruit: 3 star.
That makes no sense though. Nobody stopped evaluating prospects. Rankings are made (most often) before a recruit is committed. Sure, they are updated, but very few times does anyone get downgraded. So, when a player performs great at a camp as a Soph, they aren't a UM, OSU, etc. recruit yet. They are just an uber-talented athlete. And then they get a bunch of offers, which I'd agree are the best predictors. But, we haven't been landing 4*+ recruits, nor recruits that have legitimate top offers. Whether you want to argue it's egg->chicken or chicken->egg, the end results are the same for UI
 
#61      
That makes no sense though. Nobody stopped evaluating prospects. Rankings are made (most often) before a recruit is committed. Sure, they are updated, but very few times does anyone get downgraded. So, when a player performs great at a camp as a Soph, they aren't a UM, OSU, etc. recruit yet. They are just an uber-talented athlete. And then they get a bunch of offers, which I'd agree are the best predictors. But, we haven't been landing 4*+ recruits, nor recruits that have legitimate top offers. Whether you want to argue it's egg->chicken or chicken->egg, the end results are the same for UI

That makes no sense though. Nobody stopped evaluating prospects. Rankings are made (most often) before a recruit is committed. Sure, they are updated, but very few times does anyone get downgraded. So, when a player performs great at a camp as a Soph, they aren't a UM, OSU, etc. recruit yet. They are just an uber-talented athlete. And then they get a bunch of offers, which I'd agree are the best predictors. But, we haven't been landing 4*+ recruits, nor recruits that have legitimate top offers. Whether you want to argue it's egg->chicken or chicken->egg, the end results are the same for UI
Yes, recruiting is a glaring weakness for Bret. It's said because he is a really good coach.
 
#62      
Yes, recruiting is a glaring weakness for Bret. It's said because he is a really good coach.
Really good coaches can always bring in really good recruiters to help mask their weaknesses. I think Brett has tried and succeeded in some extent. I think Stepp is a good choice and in retrospect I think Walters was also a very good recruiter (as we can see by him winning multiple battles against us).

BB prioritizes spending NIL on Transfers and retaining players who have developed here. As long as that is the case we aren't ever going to have a great recruiting class. It is a path to winning more though which should bring more NIL which could bump us up. I don't think it's realistic for us to ever think we'll have a class in the top half of the B1G while Brett is here.
 
#63      
yea, the days of us signing 20+ prep players in a class are over . likely for many schools in our conference - for many reasons really
 
#65      
I think Walters was also a very good recruiter (as we can see by him winning multiple battles against us).

I (kinda) get why BB doesn't have his coordinators recruit heavily, but as you insinuated, that seems to really be a strategic error. We've seen what Walters can do at Purdue, and I think Henry was one of our better recruiters as a position coach. I'm sure BB wants his coordinators to focus on development/coaching, but it hurts when it hamstrings your ability to bring in talent
 
#66      
I (kinda) get why BB doesn't have his coordinators recruit heavily, but as you insinuated, that seems to really be a strategic error. We've seen what Walters can do at Purdue, and I think Henry was one of our better recruiters as a position coach. I'm sure BB wants his coordinators to focus on development/coaching, but it hurts when it hamstrings your ability to bring in talent
His coordinators recruit, or at least are very involved in the recruiting process. The assistants and position coaches are the ones who are generally out travelling though.

Bret and Aaron were literally on a recruiting trip when he promoted him to DC if I recall.
 
#67      
I (kinda) get why BB doesn't have his coordinators recruit heavily, but as you insinuated, that seems to really be a strategic error. We've seen what Walters can do at Purdue, and I think Henry was one of our better recruiters as a position coach. I'm sure BB wants his coordinators to focus on development/coaching, but it hurts when it hamstrings your ability to bring in talent

I can understand the connecting-of-dots, but we'll need to see more data on Walters-as-a-HC first. If he has another underwhelming year, it will be harder to argue that Walters focusing more on recruiting has been a net positive for Purdue.
 
#68      
I can understand the connecting-of-dots, but we'll need to see more data on Walters-as-a-HC first. If he has another underwhelming year, it will be harder to argue that Walters focusing more on recruiting has been a net positive for Purdue.
It will definitely help the guy who replaces him though. P2 conference with a roster full or athletes would be enticing to any coach.
 
#69      
It will definitely help the guy who replaces him though. P2 conference with a roster full or athletes would be enticing to any coach.

I wouldn't be certain about this - Purdue had 29 outgoing transfers this offseason - including guys who transferred to Texas A&M, Maryland, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Vanderbilt, & Mississippi State. Unless you're a program with a flush collective, you have to assume firing a coach also means 30+ current players leaving for other opportunities.
 
#70      
Trying to get caught up here on recruiting news and here's what I find... recruiting's fluid so just let the process play out bc it doesn't matter outside of the hidden gems We find/develop, then fill in the gaps with transfer. It's a new world of terrible cfb in following recruits 😆
 
#75      
I would reserve that for a skill position player/maybe even a DL, not an OL.
LT I would but not for an unproven high school player. I'd take JC Davis, even 1 year, for big NIL. Get him drafted, you'll have plenty portal picks to choose from next year. Josh Petty will do nothing for GT next year.
 
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