Illini Football 2024

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#102      
Battle89
How soon we forget...

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#103      
Butters
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I keep seeing so much about our close games (which definitely jives with my experience!), so I wanted to lay them out in terms of wins and losses since Bret got here. Cutoff is a game that was decided by 8 points or fewer:

2021: 5-7 Record ... 2 comfortable wins and 3 clear losses
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska
L 30-37 vs. UTSA
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 2-10 to 9-3, and averaging the close games should have had us at 5-7 or 6-6.

2022: 9-4 Record ... 7 comfortable wins and 1 clear loss
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 7-6 to 12-1, and averaging the close games should have had us at 10-2 (I classified the IU game as a clear win here given how we got screwed TWICE and lost by a FG).

2023: 5-7 record ... 0 comfortable wins and 4 clear losses
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
W 23-17 vs. FAU
W 27-24 at Maryland
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 0-12 to 8-4, and averaging the close games should have had us at 8-4.

So, as a reminder, this is what we did the last couple years...

2021: 5-7, no bowl
2022: 9-4, loss in New Year's Day bowl
2023: 5-7, no bowl

And this is what a high-level "basic luck" assumption would have had us at:

2021: 5-7, no bowl OR 6-6, lower-level bowl
2022: 10-2, plus Big Ten Championship Game appearance and possibly the Rose Bowl
2023: 8-4, relatively good bowl and good chance at a back-to-back Big Ten Championship Game appearance

"Luck" isn't really the right word ... we have had a problem closing out games! Hopefully we can work on that, because it actually is an AMAZINGLY positive trend we have seen in being competitive in Bret's three years vs. the 10 years before that. There have obviously been exceptions where we just came out and looked like crap, but we have only lost by double digits in 5 of our 27 Big Ten games since he has been here ... that's under 20% of the time, and 3 of those 5 came in the first half of last year.
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Doesn't averaging the close games in 23 make us 4-8, not 8-4? Which kind of bucks that trend?
 
#104      
therealmiket86
BZuppke said:
Iowa is an enigma to me. How they win as much with that pathetic offense astounds me. I don’t believe it is sustainable. I think a lot of those close wins can flip to close losses. We’ll see how this plays out. I agree after the top few schools the rest should be a tie.
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It has been sustainable because they play mistake free football, and the defense creates turnovers and special teams has been an advantage.
 
#105      
Ander1345
Only thing that bothers me is if it's a sign Foster doesn't prepare well. Otherwise who cares other than it's kind of amusing. I remember in college I had a whole presentation prepared, went over it a bunch, and just completely bombed when the moment arrived.
 
#106      
Mr. Tibbs
yea

but he really came across as just not caring about it , and like he spent a whole Tuesday night at Indy’s version of Big Al’s and woke up at 9am with a stinger
 
#107      
TampaToo
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I keep seeing so much about our close games (which definitely jives with my experience!), so I wanted to lay them out in terms of wins and losses since Bret got here. Cutoff is a game that was decided by 8 points or fewer:

2021: 5-7 Record ... 2 comfortable wins and 3 clear losses
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska
L 30-37 vs. UTSA
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 2-10 to 9-3, and averaging the close games should have had us at 5-7 or 6-6.

2022: 9-4 Record ... 7 comfortable wins and 1 clear loss
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 7-6 to 12-1, and averaging the close games should have had us at 10-2 (I classified the IU game as a clear win here given how we got screwed TWICE and lost by a FG).

2023: 5-7 record ... 0 comfortable wins and 4 clear losses
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
W 23-17 vs. FAU
W 27-24 at Maryland
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern

So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 0-12 to 8-4, and averaging the close games should have had us at 8-4.

So, as a reminder, this is what we did the last couple years...

2021: 5-7, no bowl
2022: 9-4, loss in New Year's Day bowl
2023: 5-7, no bowl

And this is what a high-level "basic luck" assumption would have had us at:

2021: 5-7, no bowl OR 6-6, lower-level bowl
2022: 10-2, plus Big Ten Championship Game appearance and possibly the Rose Bowl
2023: 8-4, relatively good bowl and good chance at a back-to-back Big Ten Championship Game appearance

"Luck" isn't really the right word ... we have had a problem closing out games! Hopefully we can work on that, because it actually is an AMAZINGLY positive trend we have seen in being competitive in Bret's three years vs. the 10 years before that. There have obviously been exceptions where we just came out and looked like crap, but we have only lost by double digits in 5 of our 27 Big Ten games since he has been here ... that's under 20% of the time, and 3 of those 5 came in the first half of last year.
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2022 = 8-5 ?
 
#113      
Fighter of the Nightman
Butters said:
Doesn't averaging the close games in 23 make us 4-8, not 8-4? Which kind of bucks that trend?
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TampaToo said:
2022 = 8-5 ?
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I crammed this in between two meetings, so I am sure you guys only scratched the surface of my mistakes. :ROFLMAO: I guess the two most undeniable takeaways are:

- We have been in WAY more close games under Bielema than we were under our past several coaches. That alone is a huge breath of fresh air (at least IMO), but the goodwill from this will run short if we plateau at a 5-7 program most years.
- We have a losing record in those close games, and winning a majority of them could have made a significant difference for the perceived health of the program.
- 2022 specifically was very frustrating in hindsight, given what could have been and how at least two of our losses were just straight-up unfair.
 
#114      
SoCal Illini
Ander1345 said:
Only thing that bothers me is if it's a sign Foster doesn't prepare well. Otherwise who cares other than it's kind of amusing. I remember in college I had a whole presentation prepared, went over it a bunch, and just completely bombed when the moment arrived.
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Sorry to hear you bombed, we all have though.

Ya it was terrible. I think UCLA’s PR person resigned recently, wonder if that contributed. Totally could be a sign that he’s in over his head, or it could be that he has a hard time doing anything outside of football, which doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach. I knew a lot of people that just could not understand anything but football, and had no idea why people would want to understand anything else. Talk about football and encyclopedic knowledge and wit comes out but anything else, deer in headlights blank stares. Unfortunately I think it’s a little of both for deshaun.
 
#115      
Ander1345
SoCal Illini said:
Sorry to hear you bombed, we all have though.

Ya it was terrible. I think UCLA’s PR person resigned recently, wonder if that contributed. Totally could be a sign that he’s in over his head, or it could be that he has a hard time doing anything outside of football, which doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach. I knew a lot of people that just could not understand anything but football, and had no idea why people would want to understand anything else. Talk about football and encyclopedic knowledge and wit comes out but anything else, deer in headlights blank stares. Unfortunately I think it’s a little of both for deshaun.
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Most CFB HC's would probably not speak to the media at all if they could get away with it.
 
#116      
BZuppke
Fickell - the number thing was unintentional. Yes receivers often switch jerseys for a lineman’s number and rules get changed in response. Nothing to see here right?

Run up the score on them in 2025.
 
#118      
GatorMcKlusky
Ander1345 said:
So unintentional it just happened that by complete accident a OL who had never ever ever worn number 93 just decided he liked that number a lot!
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Fickell or Ryan Walters - who does Coach B. dislike more? Shades of the Mike White days. Back then, White had only one friend amongst Big Ten coaching brethren, Haden Fry at Iowa. The other coaches were outright hostile towards White, with Bo and George Perles the worst of a bad bunch.
 
#119      
Illinivek23
GatorMcKlusky said:
Fickell or Ryan Walters - who does Coach B. dislike more? Shades of the Mike White days. Back then, White had only one friend amongst Big Ten coaching brethren, Haden Fry at Iowa. The other coaches were outright hostile towards White, with Bo and George Perles the worst of a bad bunch.
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B1G has quite a few HCs that are punks - Fickell, Walters, Day, Fleck to name a few. Can see why BB would be annoyed with them.
 
#121      
SoCal Illini
GatorMcKlusky said:
Fickell or Ryan Walters - who does Coach B. dislike more? Shades of the Mike White days. Back then, White had only one friend amongst Big Ten coaching brethren, Haden Fry at Iowa. The other coaches were outright hostile towards White, with Bo and George Perles the worst of a bad bunch.
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White held his own against both. An example I liked that I believe I read here on this board was after beating msu, coach white was just yelling f*** yeah! F*** yeah! Over and over as he walked to midfield to shake Perles’ hand, presumably very firmly lol. And Bo hated him b/c he replaced Moeller, and good ol Gary was Bo’s guy, in addition to being pass happy for the time which was not proper football by Bo’s standards. Then there was winning the big 10 outright.

BB I hope extends his salty side towards the dbag coaches. I think it’s one of the more fun sides to football. Fleck is probably the easiest to taunt, but debatable if he’s the worst of em.too bad same teams can’t play each other every year
 
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#123      
GForce
Illinivek23 said:
B1G has quite a few HCs that are punks - Fickell, Walters, Day, Fleck to name a few. Can see why BB would be annoyed with them.
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Besides his shameless self-promotion and questionable recruiting tactics, Fleck doesn't bother me as much (probably b/c BB owns him). Now that Hairbag is gone, Fickell moved to the head of the d-bags, not just b/c of the unethical and bush-league move last season, but for the smirk on his face when he realized he got away with it.
 
#124      
Chuck Nuggets
RockfordIllini said:
I know I’m drinking the kool-aid (I do almost every year), but I think we surprise people and win 8 games.
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I see 6 wins. 4 is the floor, IMO. 7 feels like the ceiling to me. 8 seems like the perfect world scenario.

Too many 50/50 games to my eye. 5 of the last 7 are 50/50, IMO, with only 2 guaranteed wins on the entire schedule.

If Altmyer takes a step, Feagan is who I think he can be, both stay healthy, and the defense reverts back to just being average, then this should be a pretty solid team. I really like the absolute upside of this team. BB has done a great job building the roster. But so many things have to go right in order to max out.
 
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