Illini Football 2024
- Status
Get well Mason. It happens each year an ACL injury. Let’s hope we have no more year ending injuries. Go Illini.
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
I had time the other day and broke down how I feel about each starter.
Offense: Think we can score 28ppg and we may need too in order to bowl
Defense: Our CB depth isn't good and neither is our DL depth, if these rooms stay healthy I think we bowl.
2025: Looking ahead we only lose 7 starters in 2025 if Gabe stays for his senior year. Those players are…
WR: Bryant & Franklin - Elzy can slide in but could use a stud portal WR
OL: Davis & Crisler - Henderson can take Davis spot and be solid, Crisler should be easy to replace internally, but I would still aggressively portal for a Tackle
OLB Coleman - Alec Bryant in his spot, portal for a depth piece, and Barna looks physically ready if needed
DLINE: Briggs & Edwards. Maybe Warren could take Briggs spot, but you probably need two starters here and probably can find replacement level talent.
Bret potentially got 8 starters for 2024 in the portal, many at a level I wouldn’t have thought possible (Davis, Brooks, and Franklin). Next year we may only need 3 to 4. 6-6 or 7-5 year is imperative this year, because we could have a lot of hype for 2025 and only a few positions to fill to with real portal talent.
#DevelopmentalProgram - You can see the depth being built and the floor is so much higher than it has been.
Offense: Think we can score 28ppg and we may need too in order to bowl
Defense: Our CB depth isn't good and neither is our DL depth, if these rooms stay healthy I think we bowl.
2025: Looking ahead we only lose 7 starters in 2025 if Gabe stays for his senior year. Those players are…
WR: Bryant & Franklin - Elzy can slide in but could use a stud portal WR
OL: Davis & Crisler - Henderson can take Davis spot and be solid, Crisler should be easy to replace internally, but I would still aggressively portal for a Tackle
OLB Coleman - Alec Bryant in his spot, portal for a depth piece, and Barna looks physically ready if needed
DLINE: Briggs & Edwards. Maybe Warren could take Briggs spot, but you probably need two starters here and probably can find replacement level talent.
Bret potentially got 8 starters for 2024 in the portal, many at a level I wouldn’t have thought possible (Davis, Brooks, and Franklin). Next year we may only need 3 to 4. 6-6 or 7-5 year is imperative this year, because we could have a lot of hype for 2025 and only a few positions to fill to with real portal talent.
#DevelopmentalProgram - You can see the depth being built and the floor is so much higher than it has been.
Attachments
The bolded depresses me.
Francis should definitely redshirt. It would also be nice if Henderson would be able to get some snaps this year and redshirt.
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
lol :
wasn't sure where to put this
wasn't sure where to put this
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
lol, part 2:
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
free (and very good) article:
They've been doing it for a decade
Joel Goodson
- dawgville
Roughy should consider stand-up:
Seems like a good dude. Some media training and he will be fine - can't say that about his team.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I keep seeing so much about our close games (which definitely jives with my experience!), so I wanted to lay them out in terms of wins and losses since Bret got here. Cutoff is a game that was decided by 8 points or fewer:
2021: 5-7 Record ... 2 comfortable wins and 3 clear losses
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska
L 30-37 vs. UTSA
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 2-10 to 9-3, and averaging the close games should have had us at 5-7 or 6-6.
2022: 9-4 Record ... 7 comfortable wins and 1 clear loss
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 7-6 to 12-1, and averaging the close games should have had us at 10-2 (I classified the IU game as a clear win here given how we got screwed TWICE and lost by a FG).
2023: 5-7 record ... 0 comfortable wins and 4 clear losses
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
W 23-17 vs. FAU
W 27-24 at Maryland
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 0-12 to 8-4, and averaging the close games should have had us at 8-4.
So, as a reminder, this is what we did the last couple years...
2021: 5-7, no bowl
2022: 9-4, loss in New Year's Day bowl
2023: 5-7, no bowl
And this is what a high-level "basic luck" assumption would have had us at:
2021: 5-7, no bowl OR 6-6, lower-level bowl
2022: 10-2, plus Big Ten Championship Game appearance and possibly the Rose Bowl
2023: 8-4, relatively good bowl and good chance at a back-to-back Big Ten Championship Game appearance
"Luck" isn't really the right word ... we have had a problem closing out games! Hopefully we can work on that, because it actually is an AMAZINGLY positive trend we have seen in being competitive in Bret's three years vs. the 10 years before that. There have obviously been exceptions where we just came out and looked like crap, but we have only lost by double digits in 5 of our 27 Big Ten games since he has been here ... that's under 20% of the time, and 3 of those 5 came in the first half of last year.
2021: 5-7 Record ... 2 comfortable wins and 3 clear losses
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska
L 30-37 vs. UTSA
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 2-10 to 9-3, and averaging the close games should have had us at 5-7 or 6-6.
2022: 9-4 Record ... 7 comfortable wins and 1 clear loss
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 7-6 to 12-1, and averaging the close games should have had us at 10-2 (I classified the IU game as a clear win here given how we got screwed TWICE and lost by a FG).
2023: 5-7 record ... 0 comfortable wins and 4 clear losses
W 30-28 vs. Toledo
W 23-17 vs. FAU
W 27-24 at Maryland
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern
So we could have seen a swing anywhere from 0-12 to 8-4, and averaging the close games should have had us at 8-4.
So, as a reminder, this is what we did the last couple years...
2021: 5-7, no bowl
2022: 9-4, loss in New Year's Day bowl
2023: 5-7, no bowl
And this is what a high-level "basic luck" assumption would have had us at:
2021: 5-7, no bowl OR 6-6, lower-level bowl
2022: 10-2, plus Big Ten Championship Game appearance and possibly the Rose Bowl
2023: 8-4, relatively good bowl and good chance at a back-to-back Big Ten Championship Game appearance
"Luck" isn't really the right word ... we have had a problem closing out games! Hopefully we can work on that, because it actually is an AMAZINGLY positive trend we have seen in being competitive in Bret's three years vs. the 10 years before that. There have obviously been exceptions where we just came out and looked like crap, but we have only lost by double digits in 5 of our 27 Big Ten games since he has been here ... that's under 20% of the time, and 3 of those 5 came in the first half of last year.
Chuck Nuggets
Dip your nuggets in my staff source sauce.
Josh Whitman is an impressive individual. He exudes confidence and competence with very little ego attached. And he's still only 45. I'm sure he's bound for bigger things, but I hope it's not for another 5 years.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
seems like he spent about 10 seconds of prep for that .
if his team is that unprepared for conference games , oh boy - watch out
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Following up on this, here is the detail on some of the late lead swings to help people decide which ones we were "lucky" to win or "unlucky" to lose, out of the games listed above:
GAMES WHERE IT WAS CLEAR NEITHER TEAM WAS "ROBBED"
2021 ... 2 wins and 2 losses
W 30-22 vs. Nebraska ... we were up 30-16 in the fourth quarter.
L 30-37 vs. UTSA ... we were down 10 with under 5 minutes to go and were trying to complete a great comeback.
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers ... while this is indeed the infamous running it on 4th and 1 and getting stuffed game you are all remembering, we also trailed for the entire fourth quarter.
W 14-6 at #20 Minnesota ... we were up 14 in the fourth quarter until Minnesota made it an 8-point game with under 5 minutes left.
2022 ... 0 wins and 1 loss
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State ... we were down 23-7 at the end of the third quarter, and frankly we looked like crap all day.
2023 ... 2 wins and 1 loss
W 23-17 vs. FAU ... we were up 23-10 with under 5 minutes to go.
W 27-24 at Maryland ... we were up 10 near the end of the third quarter, and we never let Maryland regain the lead.
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern ... should we have won and did we make some really dumb mistakes? Maybe. However, we trailed by 8 for a good chunk of the fourth quarter and needed a miracle last-second TD to even get the chance to fail at our 2-point conversion.
NAILBITERS WHERE ONE TEAM WAS A BIT "LUCKY" TO WIN
2021 ... 1 win and 2 losses
L 17-20 vs. Maryland ... we were up 7 AND HAD THE BALL with under 5 minutes to go and lost in regulation.
L 9-13 at Purdue ... we were up 3 with under 6 minutes to go and had Purdue at 3rd and 7, so hold them there and they only tie the game at best. We also had four chances in the red zone vs. Purdue and failed to score.
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9OT) ... this game is too much of a mess to analyze, but obviously any 9 OT game could have gone either way, lol.
2022 ... 1 win and 3 losses
L 20-23 at Indiana ... I don't need to go into this, but we lost by three points and Indiana (A) got a FG counted that they missed, and (B) had a clear Illini TD called back. Straight-up BS.
W 9-6 vs. Iowa ... on one hand, Iowa was lucky we played with a back-up QB, but MAN are we lucky that fumble got called back.
L 24-31 vs. Purdue ... while we lost by a full TD, there were SO many awful calls that kept giving Purdue another chance on offense, some even negating interceptions. I'll admit this one is borderline, but it was so infuriating that I am putting it here. My wife and I drove down for this one to sit in 20-something degree weather, and I am frankly STILL trying to erase it from my memory. The day our Big Ten Championship Game hopes died.
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan ... straight-up robbed to protect the Wolverines.
2023 ... 3 wins and 2 losses
W 30-28 vs. Toledo ... we were damn lucky to survive.
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin ... we were up 21-7 near the end of the third quarter, and both a completely ridiculous ejection and an ineligible receiver for Wisconsin did us in.
W 27-26 at Minnesota ... we needed a miracle last-second drive from a QB most people had never heard of, lol.
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT) ... so many lead changes and a crazy OT finish, so this one has to be a "could have gone either way" game, IMO.
L 13-15 at #16 Iowa ... we led the game from 6:53 in the second quarter until Iowa scored with under 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. We also failed three times to get just 3 yards on our final drive.
So in summary, this was our record in "crazy" games where one team left bewildered with a broken heart:
2021: 1-2
2022: 1-3
2023: 3-2
Total: 5-7
2022 specifically stands out as a tragic campaign in retrospect. ANY one of (A) not getting screwed at Indiana, (B) not getting screwed and showing up vs. Purdue or (C) not getting screwed at Michigan lands us in the Big Ten Championship Game and possibly a better bowl. Who knows if recruiting momentum would have taken the necessary steps forward in that scenario, but it certainly would not have hurt!
Last edited:
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
I know I’m drinking the kool-aid (I do almost every year), but I think we surprise people and win 8 games.
Last year, our offensive line was solid when healthy but literally only 5 deep such that they were awful the first half of the year when we were playing through injuries. Our offense was pretty good the second half of the year when guys got healthy. We’ve now got depth such that we should never be as bad as we were the first half of w year.
Second year in the system for Luke who I think was top 5 in QBR last year. We lost some talent at WR but replace it with inexperienced talent and Franklin who is the active leader in receiving yards in this offense. We have a stable of big physical backs. We should be able to RPO people to death and I think we are going to score a lot of points.
Defense last year was just bad. We lost our 2 stud DTs but landed some key portal additions including an all conference caliber DB from a playoff team We also committed a lot of penalties and other self inflicted wounds. Bad defense and mistakes are very un-Bret-like. I think Bret can get us to at least an average defense that minimizes mistakes as has been his MO for 15+ years.
In short, I think we cleaned up a lot of things that killed us on offense and defense. Scoring a lot of points with a decent defense sounds is a recipe to win games!
Last year, our offensive line was solid when healthy but literally only 5 deep such that they were awful the first half of the year when we were playing through injuries. Our offense was pretty good the second half of the year when guys got healthy. We’ve now got depth such that we should never be as bad as we were the first half of w year.
Second year in the system for Luke who I think was top 5 in QBR last year. We lost some talent at WR but replace it with inexperienced talent and Franklin who is the active leader in receiving yards in this offense. We have a stable of big physical backs. We should be able to RPO people to death and I think we are going to score a lot of points.
Defense last year was just bad. We lost our 2 stud DTs but landed some key portal additions including an all conference caliber DB from a playoff team We also committed a lot of penalties and other self inflicted wounds. Bad defense and mistakes are very un-Bret-like. I think Bret can get us to at least an average defense that minimizes mistakes as has been his MO for 15+ years.
In short, I think we cleaned up a lot of things that killed us on offense and defense. Scoring a lot of points with a decent defense sounds is a recipe to win games!
- Status