Illini Basketball 2024-2025

#101      
Bucktown
FreshlySqueezed said:
www.ncaa.com

How the AP preseason college basketball poll predicts success

We looked at AP preseason college basketball rankings for every year this century and, wouldn't you know it, it's a strong indicator of how the basketball regular season will actually play out.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
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That analysis stops at 2019...pre-NIL; pre transfer portal.

If the preseason poll is designed to rank the top 25 at that point in time then leaving Illinois off has some logic, but if it designed to predict the top 25 at the end of the year it is way off.
 
#103      
21ChampaignSt
Bucktown said:
That analysis stops at 2019...pre-NIL; pre transfer portal.

If the preseason poll is designed to rank the top 25 at that point in time then leaving Illinois off has some logic, but if it designed to predict the top 25 at the end of the year it is way off.
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I think it's more like, the AP poll is good at identifying the best teams in November and being good in November is a decent indicator of success later in the year. Most of the teams who make it to the second weekend this year will have been ranked in the preseason AP poll.

After about the top 15 though, it loses a lot of that predictive value.
 
#104      
Mobi
NarrowJ said:
Just to keep the discussion from the last thread flowing:

I find it a little funny how much we've all pined for literally years and years and years at getting these stud freshmen a la Kentucky, Duke and now that we finally have, the tune has now changed to "well freshmen usually aren't that good anyway because they are freshmen".

I'm excited for this season (which isn't saying much... I'm excited for the season *every year*).
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This is a different era. Stud freshmen are still very good but I would sweat the playoff if my 3-4 freshmen are against a bunch of very good upperclassmen through portal. Cal is now out of UK and we will see how Duke is doing. For the record, I don't really treat a guy like KJ as a freshman. For me, he is at least at the sophomore level in terms of experiences.
 
#105      
Fly Illini Fly!
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Won't be the starting five, but any chance we see this at some point - KJ, Will, Ben, Booth, Morez?

Just thinking about craziest possible lineups. You go 6"6, 6"9, 6"9, 6"9, 6"9? And you stay true to everyone's skill sets?
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Bob Odenkirk Amc GIF by Better Call Saul
 
#106      
BretMyBeachHouse
the juiceman cometh said:
Yeah but they never lost all but 2 players to the draft. Most they ever had drafted in one year was 6. We lost 10 this offseason. This level of roster turnover is entirely due to the transfer landscape of the last few years. As someone pointed out, this year's UK team had a huge roster turnover and is ranked #23, which is just 3 spots ahead of us. I'd argue their ranking was also impacted by their roster (and coaching) turnover, as this is their lowest preseason ranking since 2008 when they were unranked.
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In the five years before 2024, Kentucky had either the first or second rated 247 class each year. 2024 they had 31st.
 
#107      
NarrowJ
Mobi said:
This is a different era. Stud freshmen are still very good but I would sweat the playoff if my 3-4 freshmen are against a bunch of very good upperclassmen through portal. Cal is now out of UK and we will see how Duke is doing. For the record, I don't really treat a guy like KJ as a freshman. For me, he is at least at the sophomore level in terms of experiences.
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My point was that I don't think its different enough that people can't/shouldn't get excited about having two potential lottery picks on our team. I could just save my breath though, as we'd find *something* to be uneasy about no matter what (its just what we do).
 
#108      
Illini4Christ
Mobi said:
This is a different era. Stud freshmen are still very good but I would sweat the playoff if my 3-4 freshmen are against a bunch of very good upperclassmen through portal. Cal is now out of UK and we will see how Duke is doing. For the record, I don't really treat a guy like KJ as a freshman. For me, he is at least at the sophomore level in terms of experiences.
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KJ moved to Spain as a 12-year-old from Lithuania in 2018 and he averaged 21.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.9 steals right off the bat and he kept rising in their system and undoubtedly would be playing with the Barcelona’s A team this season if not moving to the U of I.

Basketball is what he has dedicated his entire life to and so he is a special talent.

He isn’t a freshman nor a sophomore.
 
#110      
the juiceman cometh
BretMyBeachHouse said:
In the five years before 2024, Kentucky had either the first or second rated 247 class each year. 2024 they had 31st.
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But they also had the #5 transfer class (compared to our #19) according to 247, and in terms of immediate success, I'd argue that's a much more important metric.

I ultimately think we wind up ranked well above the #26 we currently are, and probably higher than UK, but I understand why voters aren't jumping on the bandwagon of us as a top-10 team just yet, and seeing that UK's ranking has been similarly hampered, despite their impressive transfer class and blue blood pedigree, it's hard for me to feel like we've been particularly singled out.
 
#115      
Bbuck21
Illini2010-11 said:
I don't take any stock in pre-season rankings, so I will not complain about Illinois being ranked at 26, especially given such roster turnover.

My only gripe: UCONN won two straight championships in an era where that is almost unheard of. They should have started as #1 as a plain default, even if they lost a lot of talent.
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Pre-season polls are just not worth the time looking at. In basketball it generally works out by the end of the season. Much of the subjectivity dissolves as teams play the season, conference tournaments, and THE tournament (even though there are always some hot teams at the end). In football, it is completely ridiculous. True fans of a sport only use the polls as a barometer of what could be a good game. After watching, you get a pretty good idea which are the "good" teams and how our team matches up. People that are obsessed with the polls are typically the casual fan. Present company excluded. We are simply pointing out the flaws.

Last year was great example. So many of my Illini alum friends comented that, "Looks like the Illini have a good basketball team this year". This was when they were inside the top 25 (not top ten). And I thought to myself, "You have no idea how good".
 
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