Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12 Alliance

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#101      
ChiefGritty
champaignchris said:
In the category of things that make too much sense to ever happen, assuming that the Big 12 does take Cincy, Houston and UCF from the AAC, instead of yet again going into the cascade of AAC stealing from CUSA, CUSA stealing from the Sun Belt and the Sun Belt scrounging for what’s left… those three conferences could get together and reorganize into something that makes a lot more sense.

Three proposed conferences made up of the remaining AAC schools, CUSA, Sun Belt and independents:

The New Big East:
North division - UMass, UConn, Army, Temple, Navy, Marshall
South division - Old Dominion, Liberty, E Carolina, Charlotte, App St, Coastal Carolina

The New SWC:
West division - SMU, N Texas, Rice, UTSA, UTEP, Texas St, NM St.
East division - Tulsa, Ark St, Tulane, LA Tech, ULA, LA-Monroe

The New Sun Belt:
South division - USF, FIU, FAU, GA Southern, S Alabama, Troy
North division - S Miss, GA St, UAB, W Kentucky, Memphis, MTSU
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This is a really good idea. The so-called "Group of Five" would be smart to team up in a similar way to what I proposed for the B1G and Pac12. They could offer TV the coast-to-coast, time-zone-to-time-zone scheduling I had mentioned, and imagine if they implemented something like "Bracket Busters" for football where they all hold open the Saturday before Rivalry Week (which is always a weak slate in the major conferences) to pit their best teams against one another in cross-conference matchups determined in the week or so before.

Those are also the main weekday players, so they could combine to their mutual advantage on that basis as well.

The Galloping Ghost said:
Penny isn't staying and Memphis's time on top will be extremely short-lived.
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I mean, I'm not even sure Penny is a good enough coach to make good on the kind of recruiting he's doing, but whatever happens Memphis basketball has always been a really strong program. And I think they've actually won more football games in recent years than even UCF has.

The Galloping Ghost said:
But the thing is, while most of us weren't paying attention, UCF was becoming one of the biggest schools in the country. If given legitimacy, a few more solid seasons in a P5 conference can quickly compound into the next big thing in college football.
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This is all perfectly legitimate, but I still have a hard time seeing it. But whatever happens with UCF, they are literally four states away from any other Big 12 school even with the proposed additions.

Don't think about the parts, think about the whole. That would be my advice to any conference commissioner in this moment.
 
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#102      
The Galloping Ghost
ChiefGritty said:
This is all perfectly legitimate, but I still have a hard time seeing it. But whatever happens with UCF, they are literally four states away from any other Big 12 school even with the proposed additions.
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I don't particularly think geography matters. To me, it's kinda antiquated thinking. Conferences have expanded their footprints perpetually throughout history and with every iteration, there've been those that have said it won't work.

When the ACC first added Maryland, it was viewed as going too far north and losing the culture of the Carolina schools. The ACC now stretches from Indiana to Massachusetts and all the way down to Florida. Penn State was viewed as too far east for the Big 10. The B1G now stretches from Nebraska to New Jersey. The Pac 12 now goes into the Mountains. Look at the Big East, they stretch from Nebraska to Rhode Island, skipping states as it goes. And the thing is, the SEC and the Big 12 will have a very similar southern footprint. I don't think having a few teams in between makes that much of a difference.

Ultimately, the Big 12 is in an extremely precarious position. They're at the mercy of 4 stronger conferences and they need to make sure no weaker conference, like the AAC, has the ability to inflict any more damage. Other than BYU, they don't have any slam dunk options (and BYU is only one for a very specific reason). To me, it makes a ton of sense to say geography be damned and grab the school that has all the tools necessary to make a really big leap. UCF is that school. Memphis isn't.
 
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#105      
wettsten
clearly, the world has proved through soccer that the best model is a promotion/relegation format. we should just drop all these conference affiliations in sports and let promotion/relegation balance out who is truly a blue-blood and who is not. /s

i'm really enjoying all of your proposed scenarios and get strangely giddy when the topic of conference re-alignment comes up. i sort of like the change that comes with it. i'm rooting for big-12 to add some schools and attempt to remain a power conference. they'll obviously never be able to add the caliber of texas and oklahome which means they'll need more schools to make the same money but more mouths to split it with.
 
#108      
IllinoisssssssVarsity
I think that will establish them as a league below the top 4 but above the G5. Probably the best they could hope for.

Also, when would this membership take affect? I have a high jumper who is a freshman at Houston and it would be cool to see her compete in the big 12 before she graduates.
 
#109      
IntolerantFuzzyFlameMiser
IllinoisssssssVarsity said:
I think that will establish them as a league below the top 4 but above the G5. Probably the best they could hope for.

Also, when would this membership take affect? I have a high jumper who is a freshman at Houston and it would be cool to see her compete in the big 12 before she graduates.
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The goal is for them to join the conference in the summer of 2023. We still don't know if Texas and Oklahoma will stick it out to avoid paying that early exit fee.

This new big 12 will definitely take a big hit to the tv contract but based on their on field performance they should still be better than the ACC and Pac 12 even if they won't have that blue blood.
 
#110      
the juiceman cometh
IntolerantFuzzyFlameMiser said:
The goal is for them to join the conference in the summer of 2023. We still don't know if Texas and Oklahoma will stick it out to avoid paying that early exit fee.

This new big 12 will definitely take a big hit to the tv contract but based on their on field performance they should still be better than the ACC and Pac 12 even if they won't have that blue blood.
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I think the expectation is some kind of settlement that will see Texas and Oklahoma leave early. Likely payment of a reduced early exit fee.
 
#111      
champaignchris
BYU - 11-1 last year, 15 bowls in the last 16 years, 38 bowls in the last 47, national championship in 1984. Easily the top program outside of the Power 5 from a historical standpoint. They probably should have been admitted to the Big 12 when Colorado left

Cincinatti - 9-1 last year. 31-6 over the previous three seasons. Ranked #7 currently. 17 bowls in the last 24 seasons. Last of the former Big East teams with established BCS football programs to be brought into a Poser 5 conference. Another team that probably should have been brought into the Big 12 at the same time West Virginia was.

Houston - 14 bowls in the last 18 years. Keeps winning despite losing Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, Tom Herman, and Major Applewhite to bigger programs/the NFL. Established rivalries with Tech, Baylor and TCU. Leaves only Rice and SMU of the old SWC not in a power 5. Puts a presence back in SE Texas and the state’s biggest city that they haven’t had since A&M left.

C Florida - 12 bowls in the last 16 years, including 3 finishes in the top #11 nationally. But let’s be honest. This is about the Florida market and the size of the school. If they wanted on-field success, it would be Boise St. if they wanted historical or regional ties to their other programs, it would be someone like Memphis, Rice or Colorado St.

Overall, in the last 15 years - the living memory of any high school seniors being recruited - Cincinatti, BYU, UCF, and Houston are #15, #16, #27 and #28 respectively in winning percentage among all BCS programs, 4 of the top 5 non-Power 5 programs during that time. (Boise St is, of course, #1 among the non-Power 5, and #3 among all programs.)
 
#112      
GMAN55
I think that creation of these 3 or 4 superconferences will lead them to telling the NCAA to shove off. They will recruit as many players as they like and play as many games as they want, and "reward" their players however they want. It wont be the end of college football that I love to watch, it will just evolve.
 
#113      
champaignchris
The AAC has now been gutted. I have to wonder whether it survives because it doesn’t make much sense as a conference.

It’s really the remnants of 2 conferences - the old Big East (Temple, Navy, E Carolina and S Florida) and the western half of the original CUSA (Memphis, Tulane, SMU, Tulsa).

To survive, it pretty much has to expand back up to 12, with a East and a West division.

the main commonality between these schools is that (except for ECU) they’re urban in big media markets. So maybe Rice and UTSA for their western half and Charlotte and Georgia St for their eastern half?
 
#114      
IntolerantFuzzyFlameMiser
champaignchris said:
The AAC has now been gutted. I have to wonder whether it survives because it doesn’t make much sense as a conference.

It’s really the remnants of 2 conferences - the old Big East (Temple, Navy, E Carolina and S Florida) and the western half of the original CUSA (Memphis, Tulane, SMU, Tulsa).

To survive, it pretty much has to expand back up to 12, with a East and a West division.

the main commonality between these schools is that (except for ECU) they’re urban in big media markets. So maybe Rice and UTSA for their western half and Charlotte and Georgia St for their eastern half?
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I agree that they'll need to go to 12 teams but it'll survive because it's clearly still the top G5, they just no longer have a semi legitimate claim to be "P6".

I think the days of grabbing any random school with a minimal fanbase in a big market is over (Tulsa) and the focus will be more on who has the resources and desire to eventually become a P5 type school because the AAC is still striving to be "P6" even though that just looks silly now.

According to reliable sources the AAC has been talking to Liberty who has more resources than they know what to do with and a ton of alumni across the country.

UAB has shown they're willing to invest in facilities by opening up a new stadium in the best market for cfb.

Southern Miss has only missed bowl games 4 times in the last 20 years with a decent sized fanbase/resources.

Georgia St is a massive school in Atlanta and has been investing heavily in athletics recently.

UTSA could also be a sleeping giant being a big school in a big market with decent fan support when they win.
 
#115      
Joel Goodson
champaignchris said:
BYU - 11-1 last year, 15 bowls in the last 16 years, 38 bowls in the last 47, national championship in 1984. Easily the top program outside of the Power 5 from a historical standpoint. They probably should have been admitted to the Big 12 when Colorado left

Cincinatti - 9-1 last year. 31-6 over the previous three seasons. Ranked #7 currently. 17 bowls in the last 24 seasons. Last of the former Big East teams with established BCS football programs to be brought into a Poser 5 conference. Another team that probably should have been brought into the Big 12 at the same time West Virginia was.

Houston - 14 bowls in the last 18 years. Keeps winning despite losing Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, Tom Herman, and Major Applewhite to bigger programs/the NFL. Established rivalries with Tech, Baylor and TCU. Leaves only Rice and SMU of the old SWC not in a power 5. Puts a presence back in SE Texas and the state’s biggest city that they haven’t had since A&M left.

C Florida - 12 bowls in the last 16 years, including 3 finishes in the top #11 nationally. But let’s be honest. This is about the Florida market and the size of the school. If they wanted on-field success, it would be Boise St. if they wanted historical or regional ties to their other programs, it would be someone like Memphis, Rice or Colorado St.

Overall, in the last 15 years - the living memory of any high school seniors being recruited - Cincinatti, BYU, UCF, and Houston are #15, #16, #27 and #28 respectively in winning percentage among all BCS programs, 4 of the top 5 non-Power 5 programs during that time. (Boise St is, of course, #1 among the non-Power 5, and #3 among all programs.)
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No dog in this hunt, but great move by the B12. Really good adds.

BTW, VG primer on how successful the adds have been.
 
#116      
GilThorpe
Joel Goodson said:
No dog in this hunt, but great move by the B12. Really good adds.

BTW, VG primer on how successful the adds have been.
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not only four really decent schools for football, but they will be decent adds for basketball as well.

I do have a dog in this fight - my 27 year old son got a partial academic schollie & graduated 5 years ago from OkState in Geology, got a full ride for a masters in Hydrology from Ill St 3 years ago , and is now working as a scientist for Danish mega firm Ramboll in Boston. It all worked out for him , and hes a big oSu fan and is ecstatic with this news.

after the beloved of course , I like oSu next. great program and fandom and gameday experience there.
 
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#117      
ILL_INI
IntolerantFuzzyFlameMiser said:
I agree that they'll need to go to 12 teams but it'll survive because it's clearly still the top G5, they just no longer have a semi legitimate claim to be "P6".
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I don't think that their supremacy of the G5 is that clear at all. In fact, I would argue that with the rumored changes, they will fall below the Mountain West.
 
#118      
ChiefGritty
ILL_INI said:
I don't think that their supremacy of the G5 is that clear at all. In fact, I would argue that with the rumored changes, they will fall below the Mountain West.
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It's an interesting juxtaposition, right? The Mountain West which, at this point, is probably the conference in the entire FBS that is most geographically and culturally coherent and has schools that they seem like they belong together, versus the coming AAC, which will be the most shameless marriage of convenience yet seen.

Though, don't bet on the two not interacting. AAC commissioner Michael Aresco is a board-certified doofus, has staked his professional reputation on the notion of bootstrapping a major conference together out of sheer refusal to admit otherwise, and will definitely be trying to add the likes of Boise State and San Diego State.

I hope they say no, but who knows.

Anyway, the two-step of adding Wichita State as an all-sports member then Navy as football-only was pretty clever if you're a league who doesn't care about making any sense. If you really want to just get nuts with it:

Football

AAC West: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV, Tulsa, SMU
AAC East: Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, East Carolina, South Florida

The service academies are all football only, and for all other sports you have Wichita State, VCU, and hey let's get nuts, Gonzaga
 
#119      
IntolerantFuzzyFlameMiser
ChiefGritty said:
It's an interesting juxtaposition, right? The Mountain West which, at this point, is probably the conference in the entire FBS that is most geographically and culturally coherent and has schools that they seem like they belong together, versus the coming AAC, which will be the most shameless marriage of convenience yet seen.

Though, don't bet on the two not interacting. AAC commissioner Michael Aresco is a board-certified doofus, has staked his professional reputation on the notion of bootstrapping a major conference together out of sheer refusal to admit otherwise, and will definitely be trying to add the likes of Boise State and San Diego State.

I hope they say no, but who knows.

Anyway, the two-step of adding Wichita State as an all-sports member then Navy as football-only was pretty clever if you're a league who doesn't care about making any sense. If you really want to just get nuts with it:

Football

AAC West: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV, Tulsa, SMU
AAC East: Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, East Carolina, South Florida

The service academies are all football only, and for all other sports you have Wichita State, VCU, and hey let's get nuts, Gonzaga
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The MAC is the conference I think of when it comes to cohesive geography and cultural/institutional fit since theirs a pretty massive difference between the mountain and California schools but your point of the MWC being very stable still stands.

San Diego St and Boise St already turned down the AAC when they still had Louisville and Rutgers in their conference along with these new Big 12 schools, they definitely aren't joining that dumpster fire now. I still think the AAC will be the top G5 conference for now but the MWC will be back to the top G5 in the long run.
 
#122      
Champaign Toast
During our last football coaching search, I thought Luke Fickell of Cincinnati would be our best possible target; but, that based on his Ohio St pedigree and AAC success he could frankly wait for an opportunity at a Power 5 program with more wins in recent years. I don't think he was even listed as a potential candidate for the Illinois job, perhaps for that reason?

I wonder what Cincinnati joining the Big 12 means for his career in the near term. Does he accept the challenge of making the Bearcats a Big 12 champion over multiple years? Does he bolt for a program with more tradition and resources?
 
#123      
ChiefGritty
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#124      
champaignchris
ChiefGritty said:
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In retrospect, it’s really weird that a massive public school in a giant city like Houston got passed over for Baylor, a far smaller private school in Waco, when they were putting together the Big 12.

There’s been a lot written about Baylor’s political connections, but at the time, Houston had only joined the SWC in the mid-70s and after a great run of football in the 70s had been a pretty bad program throughout the 80s and the first half of the 90s. Baylor had been a member of the SWC going way back and, though not elite, had been a far better program over the prior 15-20 years.

Despite being in the DFW area, TCU was an even smaller school than Baylor and hadn’t been a consistent winner in decades. SMU had won a grand total of 13 games in the 7 years since coming off the death penalty and was a no go from stage one. Rice was, and is, a great academic university but has never been a good football program.

So Baylor was school #12 in the Big 12 sort of by default.
 
#125      
GilThorpe
Ann Richards ( Gov back then) was a Baylor alum. much has been written about it , and she was proud of it - she and other influential alums made sure Baylor was part of the deal . the other schools never had a chance .
 
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