2016 White Sox

#326      
IntenselyOrange
Bailey said:
I'm fine standing pat with Quintana/Sale if they think they'll have more suitors this off season. There's really no reason not to sell high on guys like Shields, Gonzalez, Robertson etc. I guess they want to be bowled over by every offer.

Looks like Charlie Tilson will be the last interesting element to this season. He makes his debut tomorrow. He'd have been in the majors with STL soon enough, and had a pretty easy time getting on base in the minors. Legit CF defensively, + speed. We'll see about the bat.
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I've heard the "more suitors in the offseason argument". I just don't buy it myself. The teams that will be suitors in the offseason are in pennant races this year. So, we are expected to believe that we'll get more for those guys when they can influence one fewer playoff push?

Are we expected to believe that the other GMs were unable to look at the upcoming FA class and see that there was nothing available and they'll therefore be stuck?

But as you mention, even if you want to believe that, you still need to get something for Melky, Robertson, and other peripheral pieces. Some of the returns this week were IMO ridiculous. I find it hard to believe we weren't getting fair market offers. I choose to believe instead that Hahn is deluded and should be put on medication.
 
#327      
Bailey
IntenselyOrange said:
I've heard the "more suitors in the offseason argument". I just don't buy it myself. The teams that will be suitors in the offseason are in pennant races this year. So, we are expected to believe that we'll get more for those guys when they can influence one fewer playoff push?

Are we expected to believe that the other GMs were unable to look at the upcoming FA class and see that there was nothing available and they'll therefore be stuck?

But as you mention, even if you want to believe that, you still need to get something for Melky, Robertson, and other peripheral pieces. Some of the returns this week were IMO ridiculous. I find it hard to believe we weren't getting fair market offers. I choose to believe instead that Hahn is deluded and should be put on medication.
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:(

Totally reasonable perspective
 
#328      
Serious Late
IntenselyOrange said:
I've heard the "more suitors in the offseason argument". I just don't buy it myself. The teams that will be suitors in the offseason are in pennant races this year. So, we are expected to believe that we'll get more for those guys when they can influence one fewer playoff push?

Are we expected to believe that the other GMs were unable to look at the upcoming FA class and see that there was nothing available and they'll therefore be stuck?

But as you mention, even if you want to believe that, you still need to get something for Melky, Robertson, and other peripheral pieces. Some of the returns this week were IMO ridiculous. I find it hard to believe we weren't getting fair market offers. I choose to believe instead that Hahn is deluded and should be put on medication.
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Bailey said:
:(

Totally reasonable perspective
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I was curious to get each of your opinions on the White Sox moves this deadline. Your reactions are each completely appropriate, imo. I get not moving Sale. That is an incredibly difficult thing to pull off, with the necessary ask to make the deal worthwhile likely beyond the risk a buyer is willing to sell in order to get value on the trade.

That said, nothing on Quintana? Nothing on Frazier? No surprise moves involving someone like Rodon to make a big splash in the trade market? The deal involving Duke wasn't bad, but that is it? Struggling to understand the lack of aggressiveness one way or another. I am guessing the average fan would have loved to see the team make a big buy splash, while the average die hard is prepared to cash in on the value of the established stars to align the stars for a dividend pay in 3 years.

Either way, the indecision one way or another has to be a disappointment. I kept watching for the big White Sox trade this deadline, and was surprised it never happened.
 
#329      
Illiniwek06
GUBwvng.jpg
 
#330      
Bailey
IntenselyOrange said:
I've heard the "more suitors in the offseason argument". I just don't buy it myself. The teams that will be suitors in the offseason are in pennant races this year. So, we are expected to believe that we'll get more for those guys when they can influence one fewer playoff push?
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Here's a nugget of sense, actually. From Patrick Nolan (the guy who wins Sox math pretty much every night. Nerd.)

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/8/2/12337886/standing-pat-at-the-trade-deadline-was-okay
One piece that I've overlooked in applying that logic is that potential buyers may limit their offers at the July deadline. In order to get full value in 2016 from acquiring Sale or Quintana, a team will want to avoid using significant contributors on their 25-man roster in the deal. If the White Sox try to acquire a Nomar Mazara type in a trade, the other team will often say, "No, we're using that right now" and look for upgrades elsewhere that can be had by only using minor leaguers.
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Problem being - and the link eventually heads in this direction - is the illusion that by having Sale/Q that we're on the cusp of contention. That's a difficult sell for most fans, I would guess, given the palpable failure in regards to advanced scouting, last winters free agency ineptitude, Robin freaking Ventura, etc.

So help me god, if mgmt spends another off season "re-tooling", I'm becoming a Cubs fan.


jk
 
#331      
IntenselyOrange
Bailey said:
Here's a nugget of sense, actually. From Patrick Nolan (the guy who wins Sox math pretty much every night. Nerd.)

http://www.southsidesox.com/2016/8/2/12337886/standing-pat-at-the-trade-deadline-was-okay


Problem being - and the link eventually heads in this direction - is the illusion that by having Sale/Q that we're on the cusp of contention. That's a difficult sell for most fans, I would guess, given the palpable failure in regards to advanced scouting, last winters free agency ineptitude, Robin freaking Ventura, etc.

So help me god, if mgmt spends another off season "re-tooling", I'm becoming a Cubs fan.


jk
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You're in LA - you have a very similar situation in your backyard with a team that should, as hard as it is to believe, consider trading Mike Trout.

The issue is that there is no reasonable path to winning a World Series with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. We have no other trade pieces and we have a pathetic farm system. So we have two options, trade them and rebuild or hold onto them and deal with the sub 0.500 records that the rest of our roster dictates.

As for trading in the offseason, I still don't see it. I understand the argument that teams won't want to trade players they are currently using. But it's weak. If Chris Sale gives you a better chance to win than player X on your roster, you make the trade. It's really simple. And it's even simpler during the heat of a pennant race. During the offseason, the logic of long-term franchise building can overcome the desire to win.

I hope I'm proven wrong this offseason, but I think that Hahn screwed this up terribly. We had a chance to rebuild instantaneously and he stood with mediocrity. Sure, we might get Shields through waivers for a lottery ticket. Same for Melky. But this organization needs so much more than that. If they build through the draft, a reasonable approach, Sale will be ready to retire by the time we are competitive. That's why you trade him for the best deal you can.

I keep reading/hearing that you can't take less than market value. True. But your 29 potential trade partners dictate what that value is. If they tell you that their top 5 prospects is too much, it doesn't really matter what I think you should be able to get for Sale.
 
#334      
champaignchris
As an outsider Cubs fan, I understand why you might not trade Sale and Quintana at this point. There should be time to build around them in order to be a winner during the last couple years of their contracts. In some ways the Sox are in better shape than the Angels vis-a-vis Trout because they don't have lodestone contracts like Pujols (and Hamilton?) to weigh them down.

What I don't understand is why Frazier, Lawrie, and Cabrera weren't on the market. I didn't hear a hint of their names leading up to the deadline. All three are free agents after 2017. Unless the Sox management thinks it's competing for a playoff spot next year, there's no reason not to trade them now when they're at their max value, contract-wise.

The White Sox are trapped in the baseball version of Basketball Hell. They're not bad enough to have protected draft picks when they sign free agents. They're not good enough to plug their holes with lower value players that don't cost you draft picks, nor do they have a deep enough farm to simply swallow losing the draft picks. I think that's one of the reasons why they didn't pursue some of the bigger free agents this offseason more aggressively, picking up instead guys who wouldn't cost them a draft pick. So Austin Jackson instead of Dexter Fowler, Jimmy Rollins instead of Ian Desmond.

(Although, that still doesn't really explain to me why they didn't address the DH at all - Steve Pearce was just there for the taking and ended up signing for pocket change with the Rays.)

The good news is they still could move any of Frazier, Lawrie or Cabrera (or any of the other spare parts) during the waiver-wire section of the trade season.
 
#337      
IntenselyOrange
champaignchris said:
As an outsider Cubs fan, I understand why you might not trade Sale and Quintana at this point. There should be time to build around them in order to be a winner during the last couple years of their contracts.
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Although this is possible, it's unlikely. It requires that Anderson and Rodon make huge jumps over the next year. It requires that Abreu become a force again, something I'm starting to doubt. It requires that Frazier, Melky, and Lawrie have great years next year. It requires that the Sox sign a catcher (Wieters is likely the best available) and an OF (Fowler or Reddick?).

That plan would cost too much money and require too many average players to perform at a high level. After next year, several players are no longer under contract (Frazier, Melky, Lawrie). Sure there are a significant number of FAs going on the market that year unless they sign before that, but does anyone really expect the White Sox to put forth the money to contend? And if they were going to do that, wouldn't it make sense to have 5 or 6 crucial players on rookie contracts thus freeing up as much money as possible? Sale and Quintana are on absurd contracts, but they're not rookie level contracts. While they eat up an insignificant amount of the payroll for the Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees, it's very significant for a team like the White Sox.

I could see this plan if we had the FA class going on the market and the ownership was committed to going after the World Series in two consecutive years behind the pitchers. But that's not the situation.
 
#338      
qcillini13
IntenselyOrange said:
Although this is possible, it's unlikely. It requires that Anderson and Rodon make huge jumps over the next year. It requires that Abreu become a force again, something I'm starting to doubt. It requires that Frazier, Melky, and Lawrie have great years next year. It requires that the Sox sign a catcher (Wieters is likely the best available) and an OF (Fowler or Reddick?).

That plan would cost too much money and require too many average players to perform at a high level. After next year, several players are no longer under contract (Frazier, Melky, Lawrie). Sure there are a significant number of FAs going on the market that year unless they sign before that, but does anyone really expect the White Sox to put forth the money to contend? And if they were going to do that, wouldn't it make sense to have 5 or 6 crucial players on rookie contracts thus freeing up as much money as possible? Sale and Quintana are on absurd contracts, but they're not rookie level contracts. While they eat up an insignificant amount of the payroll for the Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees, it's very significant for a team like the White Sox.

I could see this plan if we had the FA class going on the market and the ownership was committed to going after the World Series in two consecutive years behind the pitchers. But that's not the situation.
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Where are the magically super rookies coming from? Even if we did trade our best assets most of the players that are dealt that are prospects have been busts over the last few years. We need 1 outfielder and a catcher. We need Rodon to realize his potential and a guy to revert back to the 1st two years of his career. If you give up Sale and Quintana we are not going to see players like that on contracts like that ever again. You are correct we don't have the money to be paying high priced free agents so when you have two superstar pitchers on insane contracts you can't just give them away. If you could show me one trade that would have guaranteed the White Sox got two superstars at their position then you could think about it but then you would need some complimentary pieces to go along with it. Fire sales RARELY work.
 
#339      
IntenselyOrange
qcillini13 said:
Where are the magically super rookies coming from? Even if we did trade our best assets most of the players that are dealt that are prospects have been busts over the last few years. We need 1 outfielder and a catcher. We need Rodon to realize his potential and a guy to revert back to the 1st two years of his career. If you give up Sale and Quintana we are not going to see players like that on contracts like that ever again. You are correct we don't have the money to be paying high priced free agents so when you have two superstar pitchers on insane contracts you can't just give them away. If you could show me one trade that would have guaranteed the White Sox got two superstars at their position then you could think about it but then you would need some complimentary pieces to go along with it. Fire sales RARELY work.
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Guaranteed to produce a contender - of course not. It's about putting the organization in a position where it can win. I understand the value of Sale and Quintana on such absurd contracts. But two players is not enough when we have so many holes all over the place without any high minors help.

But, if you trade Sale and Quintana you are no longer dependent on the help being guys that will help today. You can build for the future. The availability of players during the next two years is only essential when you have forced yourself into a corner of winning with these two guys. Nevertheless, there were rumors here in Boston that the White Sox were offered Benintendi, Devers or Swihart, Kopech and a couple low minors guys for either Sale or Quintana. Now, that is just a rumor, but that's a good haul. Benintendi is a high probability good to All-Star OF, Swihart could be the C but I'd take Devers to play 3B, and Kopech has an arm like Aroldis Chapman.

If you can then flip the other pitcher to LA for Urias and a couple of other pieces, you are in business in a couple of years. Next year would be awful, but there would be light at the end of the tunnel. At least there would be a path to contention. It may not work, but at least there would be a chance. The number of stars that must align for us to win with the roster as currently constructed is massive.

Of course, that's my opinion. I'm someone who would like to change the course once I see the current course cannot produce the ultimate goal - a championship. It's the same reason I would have fired Bruce Weber at least 2 years before he was ultimately canned. It's why I would have fired Beckman after year one. On the other hand, I would have also fired Groce who seems to have things moving in the right direction now, at least with respect to recruiting.
 
#340      
Illiniwek06
IntenselyOrange said:
Nevertheless, there were rumors here in Boston that the White Sox were offered Benintendi, Devers or Swihart, Kopech and a couple low minors guys for either Sale or Quintana. Now, that is just a rumor, but that's a good haul. Benintendi is a high probability good to All-Star OF, Swihart could be the C but I'd take Devers to play 3B, and Kopech has an arm like Aroldis Chapman.
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Nice post, agree with the entirety. Relating to the quoted, I saw this tweet after the deadline. I'm choosing to believe that this is just a false rumor ... :mad::tsk:

whitesoxdave
‏@barstoolWSD
FWIW I was told the #WhiteSox turned down a Benintendi, Kopech, Johnson/Ball, and PTBNL package for Quintana from #RedSox
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#341      
Bailey
Illiniwek06 said:
Nice post, agree with the entirety. Relating to the quoted, I saw this tweet after the deadline. I'm choosing to believe that this is just a false rumor ... :mad::tsk:
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Honestly, that would have been too light a return for Q in my opinion.
 
#342      
Firet92
Any other loyaltiers at the Illini night tonight?! Section 103 D Will jersey. Say hey!
 
#343      
ILL in IA
Bailey said:
Honestly, that would have been too light a return for Q in my opinion.
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Id like to see 1 more prospect added on to feel good about trading Q. That said, I LOVE Benintendi. Maybe biased because I have him stashed on a dynasty league roster, but have seen a lot of his at bats. That guy is going to hit and play a good center field.
 
#344      
Bob Christiansen
ILL in IA said:
Id like to see 1 more prospect added on to feel good about trading Q. That said, I LOVE Benintendi. Maybe biased because I have him stashed on a dynasty league roster, but have seen a lot of his at bats. That guy is going to hit and play a good center field.
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Watched the Dodgers/Red Sox game Sunday night, first time I've seen Benintendi. Got 3 hits that game, the kid is good with the bat...
 
#345      
Bailey
I'm thoroughly checked out on this season, but I keep up with the beat writers. Sounds like last night's game was..uh, well...

9RZt2uO.png


By the way, anybody heard from qcillini? ;)
 
#346      
Illiniwek06
Bailey said:
I'm thoroughly checked out on this season, but I keep up with the beat writers. Sounds like last night's game was..uh, well...

By the way, anybody heard from qcillini? ;)
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Hahaha. I caught the game and texted a few buddies right after he struck out the side (and after giving up leadoff triple): "DAN JENNINGS."

That's right, after setting the MLB world on fire in April and May, we are now in August, and I'm forcing myself to get fired up about a relief appearance in a game that was ultimately lost, to bring each club to 5 games under .500.

Hooray sports. :sick:
 
#348      
IntenselyOrange
Bailey said:
Hey! This is neat.

VYN7VIU.png
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FWIW, Fangraphs has Kluber well ahead in WAR (4.2 vs. 3.7). That fits more with his large advantage in FIP.

But the point is that Quintana has been one of the top couple of pitchers in the league this year. He deserves a lot of Cy Young votes, but he'll get far fewer than he deserves.

As for the Sox in general, I just check the scores these days. They're just terrible. And you know that Ventura will do something stupid to make your blood boil in just about any game. It's unlikely that I will renew my mlb.tv subscription next year. I just can't do it. I'll follow the team and read about the team, but I cannot devote evenings to a sad group with a terrible manager and no plan to put themselves in contention. There are better ways to spend my time.
 
#349      
Bob Christiansen
IntenselyOrange said:
As for the Sox in general, I just check the scores these days. They're just terrible. And you know that Ventura will do something stupid to make your blood boil in just about any game. It's unlikely that I will renew my mlb.tv subscription next year. I just can't do it. I'll follow the team and read about the team, but I cannot devote evenings to a sad group with a terrible manager and no plan to put themselves in contention. There are better ways to spend my time.
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So I'm watching the game last night, like I do just about every night. Gonzalez pulls a groin muscle (groin strain, whatever the hell they want to call it)...throwing a frickin normal pitch!!!!!...in the bottom of the 2nd, 1 out...OK, so the pen has to pitch this one. In comes Michael Ynoa...and pitches 2 2/3 of very good ball. The dude has definitely a few more innings left in him...but no, Robin decides, hey, it ain't broke...let's fix it!! In comes Fulmer, and 2 innings later, it's 2-1 Royals.

At that point, sorry to say...I turned over to the Cubbies game...
 
#350      
IntenselyOrange
Bob Christiansen said:
So I'm watching the game last night, like I do just about every night. Gonzalez pulls a groin muscle (groin strain, whatever the hell they want to call it)...throwing a frickin normal pitch!!!!!...in the bottom of the 2nd, 1 out...OK, so the pen has to pitch this one. In comes Michael Ynoa...and pitches 2 2/3 of very good ball. The dude has definitely a few more innings left in him...but no, Robin decides, hey, it ain't broke...let's fix it!! In comes Fulmer, and 2 innings later, it's 2-1 Royals.

At that point, sorry to say...I turned over to the Cubbies game...
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I'm in favor of criticism of Robin, but I disagree with you on this particular point. Ynoa hadn't thrown more than 2 innings in a game all year. From a health perspective, I would not have been comfortable putting him out there for a fourth inning. He just has not had the work to build up to that kind of outing.
 
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