Week 9 Polls - Illinois #20 in AP Poll

#28      
Illini2010-11
Navy_illini said:
I think our rating has is about right considering our body of work

Teams that are getting benefit of the doubt based on their history
Clemson and Notre Dame Alabama if you use the logic their loses were against good teams then why are we 20 when our only L is @PSU. ND has the best win out of the group but losing to NIU is the worst loss

Teams that are underrated
IU Pitt Army Navy

They all should be higher in the polls. If they are over rated the rest of the season will work it out. IU plays O$U and Army Navy play each other
I would have
9 ISU
10 BYU
11 IU
12 Pitt
13 army
14 Navy
15 Clemson
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Army and Navy are ranked about where they should be at this point. They are good, but they have played tremendously weaker schedules. Navy gets a big opportunity Saturday against Notre Dame, and Army gets a crack at Notre Dame a few weeks after that. Unless they beat Notre Dame, no way they crack into top 15 (nor should they).
 
#29      
redwingillini11
IIRC, SP+ is heavily weighted on past performance. It gives “extra credit” if you’ve been a strong program in recent years. I imagine that it partially what is holding us down in that ranking.
 
#30      
lstewart53x3
redwingillini11 said:
IIRC, SP+ is heavily weighted on past performance. It gives “extra credit” if you’ve been a strong program in recent years. I imagine that it partially what is holding us down in that ranking.
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Not sure about SP+, but I’m pretty sure that in KFord’s model, the preseason stats carry very little weight at this point in the season.

For example, Indiana started the year ranked 69 in KFord and they’re currently up to 12. So their 7-0 start, not fluky.

Whereas, we started the year at 59 in KFord and have moved up just 5 spots to 54 (would probably be another 15 spots higher without the Purdue second half fiasco). So our 6-1 start, a little fluky.

Though, I don’t think these metrics take coaching into account well enough. For example, Michigan in 37 is KFord, which makes sense, they’re clearly more talented than we are, but Bret thoroughly out coached Michigan in that game.

In the 4th quarter, I was shocked that Michigan was subbing on offense, which allowed us to sub on defense, burning off extra clock on every play.

Those are the types of mistakes our staff rarely makes.

Another example is against Purdue, Bret told A-Hen before overtime began that if Purdue scored a TD, they were going to go for two, which they did, and that allowed extra time to prepare for that play, which won us the game.

Just plain good coaching.

We don’t out gain our opponents by 100+ yards each game, which is a huge factor in advanced stats, but for the most part, we play sound football. We don’t make mistakes, we don’t turn the ball over, we manage the clock well, etc.

So we’re able to win games against teams that are, on paper, better.
 
#31      
blackdog
lstewart53x3 said:
Not sure about SP+, but I’m pretty sure that in KFord’s model, the preseason stats carry very little weight at this point in the season.

For example, Indiana started the year ranked 69 in KFord and they’re currently up to 12. So their 7-0 start, not fluky.

Whereas, we started the year at 59 in KFord and have moved up just 5 spots to 54 (would probably be another 15 spots higher without the Purdue second half fiasco). So our 6-1 start, a little fluky.

Though, I don’t think these metrics take coaching into account well enough. For example, Michigan in 37 is KFord, which makes sense, they’re clearly more talented than we are, but Bret thoroughly out coached Michigan in that game.

In the 4th quarter, I was shocked that Michigan was subbing on offense, which allowed us to sub on defense, burning off extra clock on every play.

Those are the types of mistakes our staff rarely makes.

Another example is against Purdue, Bret told A-Hen before overtime began that if Purdue scored a TD, they were going to go for two, which they did, and that allowed extra time to prepare for that play, which won us the game.

Just plain good coaching.

We don’t out gain our opponents by 100+ yards each game, which is a huge factor in advanced stats, but for the most part, we play sound football. We don’t make mistakes, we don’t turn the ball over, we manage the clock well, etc.

So we’re able to win games against teams that are, on paper, better.
Click to expand...

Not only that but we have really strong special teams with a punter that can impact field position and a reliable kicker with range. Also a defense that is pretty strong at forcing turnovers which really helps mitigate the yardage and TOP numbers. Those combined with limiting turnovers are huge in close games between relatively even or even slightly better teams.
 
#33      
derrick6
lstewart53x3 said:
Not sure about SP+, but I’m pretty sure that in KFord’s model, the preseason stats carry very little weight at this point in the season.

For example, Indiana started the year ranked 69 in KFord and they’re currently up to 12. So their 7-0 start, not fluky.

Whereas, we started the year at 59 in KFord and have moved up just 5 spots to 54 (would probably be another 15 spots higher without the Purdue second half fiasco). So our 6-1 start, a little fluky.

Though, I don’t think these metrics take coaching into account well enough. For example, Michigan in 37 is KFord, which makes sense, they’re clearly more talented than we are, but Bret thoroughly out coached Michigan in that game.

In the 4th quarter, I was shocked that Michigan was subbing on offense, which allowed us to sub on defense, burning off extra clock on every play.

Those are the types of mistakes our staff rarely makes.

Another example is against Purdue, Bret told A-Hen before overtime began that if Purdue scored a TD, they were going to go for two, which they did, and that allowed extra time to prepare for that play, which won us the game.

Just plain good coaching.

We don’t out gain our opponents by 100+ yards each game, which is a huge factor in advanced stats, but for the most part, we play sound football. We don’t make mistakes, we don’t turn the ball over, we manage the clock well, etc.

So we’re able to win games against teams that are, on paper, better.
Click to expand...
In other words, we are Wisconsin of old.
 
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