Purdue (Oct. 12th) & Michigan (Oct. 19th) Games
I believe others have started asking this in other threads, but I don’t remember the answers.
Do we have a general idea of what we think the game times will be for either of those two games? I know they weren’t officially announce them until about a week and a half before each game; I’m just looking for those kind of have an idea how this gets scheduled to give me an idea of what they think.
Do we have a general idea of what we think the game times will be for either of those two games? I know they weren’t officially announce them until about a week and a half before each game; I’m just looking for those kind of have an idea how this gets scheduled to give me an idea of what they think.
As far as the Purdue game, they won't be in the marquee NBC or CBS spots as Ohio State/Oregon and Penn State/USC are that weekend. The other games are Washington/Iowa, Minnesota/UCLA, and Wisky/Rutgers. Fox Big Noon maybe?
The Michigan game will be the marquee B1G game that weekend so they could end up being either Big Noon Kickoff or B1G Saturday night.
Isn’t the afternoon CBS a marquee game? 2:30 against Michigan would be perfect.
It is but it seems like they get maybe the 2nd or 3rd best choice that week.
Will these be sellouts?
Only if the DIA does some combo packages. Those tickets in the East upper deck corners are hard sells, especially at the listed price for the premium games. More reason why visiting fans should be shoved up there!
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
There is a week-to-week rotation of who gets first pick, if I recall correctly.
I would advise against making plans that would be ruined by a particular start time of any TBA game in today's Big Ten.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Assuming we are at least competitive at PSU and can beat Purdue at home, I’m quite confident Michigan will sell out in that scenario … and I think the DIA would make sure it did if we weren’t quite there.
Purdue will be tougher … we just don’t have the season ticket base yet. In 2022, excitement from a good start pushed our crowds from about 35k to 45k, so 10k extra fans per week buying single tickets. I think since then we’ve added 10k+ season tickets, so our new crowds once fans are a bit enthused are in the 52k+ range. If we add 10k more season tickets, it would be achievable to start selling out games consistently.
I’ll guess about 55k for Purdue and a sellout for Michigan!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
As Gritty said, it is really impossible to guess game times these days. Unfortunately, the aforementioned "draft" that FOX, CBS and NBC had at the beginning of the year is confidential, so we cannot be sure what networks picked which weeks with their picks. However, an example of how it works is this. As a majority shareholder, FOX got the best "package" of picks, including the first one. With its first pick, it chose the Ohio State/Michigan weekend, and it picked that game to be Big Noon Kickoff (i.e., 11:00 am on FOX). It was also made public that it traded its third pick of weekends to have "better" second and third pick weekends. So, we know that there are certain weeks where FOX, CBS and NBC trade spots of #1, #2 and #3 in the pecking order of which games they get to pick. It seems FOX puts its first pick in the 11:00 am slot, whereas NBC puts its pick in he 6:30 pm slot; CBS only ever has the 2:30 pm slot. So, while guessing the Purdue game time is more or less impossible (as I believe it will be on BTN or FS1 and therefore could be at any time), I think there are pretty much two takeaways as far as guessing at least the Michigan game:
1. If you want to try to play super detective, you can try to look at the games so far and tally up your guess as to the networks' pecking order each week. If an obvious pattern emerges (e.g., NBC has clearly exercised multiple first picks already), it might be easier to guess who has the first pick on the Michigan/Illinois weekend.
2. On that note, I DO believe that our game vs. Michigan will be chosen by whatever network gets the first pick that week. The slate of games is not the best, and some teams that are a good draw have bye weeks:
Michigan at Illinois
Nebraska at Indiana
Michigan State at Iowa
USC at Maryland
Wisconsin at Northwestern
UCLA at Rutgers
Friday Night: Oregon at Purdue
Bye Week: Ohio State, Penn State, Washington, Minnesota
Nebraska/Indiana actually could be an interesting game, but Michigan draws better than Nebraska, and we draw WAY better than Indiana. Also, MSU/Iowa is not as exciting as it might have been in years past. So, for guessing the Michigan game time, I think you pretty much have to determine which network gets first pick that week.
- If it's FOX, count on 11:00 am.
- If it's CBS, count on 2:30 pm.
- If it's NBC, count on 6:30 pm.
Again, if you cannot succeed as a super detective, I get that this is not overly helpful, lmao ... I guess best I can do is to show the games these networks have picked so far by week. I went ahead and tried to guess what order I thought they might have been picked in. Illinois/Michigan is Week 8.
WEEK 1
FOX: #8 Penn State at West Virginia
NBC: Fresno State at #9 Michigan
CBS: Akron at #2 Ohio State
WEEK 2
FOX: #3 Texas at #10 Michigan
NBC: Colorado at Nebraska
CBS: Iowa State at #21 Iowa
WEEK 3
FOX: #4 Alabama at Wisconsin
CBS: #18 Notre Dame at Purdue
NBC: Indiana at UCLA
WEEK 4
CBS: #11 USC at #18 Michigan
NBC: Iowa at Minnesota
FOX: Marshall at #3 Ohio State
WEEK 5
NBC: #24 Illinois at #10 Penn State
CBS: Wisconsin at #11 USC
FOX: Minnesota at #18 Michigan
WEEK 7
NBC: #3 Ohio State at #9 Oregon
WEEK 14
FOX: #18 Michigan at #3 Ohio State (confirmed week with FOX first pick)
Again, I am assuming Illini/Michigan is the "most desired" matchup. Total guess, but I am going to go ahead and guess that the Michigan game will NOT be on NBC ... so cross of 6:30 pm. I also just have a feeling it will not be Big Noon Kickoff ... they are covering Michigan next weekend, and it seems like FOX has already had a lot of weekends where they had the first pick. I'm guessing it will be at 2:30 pm on CBS.
1. If you want to try to play super detective, you can try to look at the games so far and tally up your guess as to the networks' pecking order each week. If an obvious pattern emerges (e.g., NBC has clearly exercised multiple first picks already), it might be easier to guess who has the first pick on the Michigan/Illinois weekend.
2. On that note, I DO believe that our game vs. Michigan will be chosen by whatever network gets the first pick that week. The slate of games is not the best, and some teams that are a good draw have bye weeks:
Michigan at Illinois
Nebraska at Indiana
Michigan State at Iowa
USC at Maryland
Wisconsin at Northwestern
UCLA at Rutgers
Friday Night: Oregon at Purdue
Bye Week: Ohio State, Penn State, Washington, Minnesota
Nebraska/Indiana actually could be an interesting game, but Michigan draws better than Nebraska, and we draw WAY better than Indiana. Also, MSU/Iowa is not as exciting as it might have been in years past. So, for guessing the Michigan game time, I think you pretty much have to determine which network gets first pick that week.
- If it's FOX, count on 11:00 am.
- If it's CBS, count on 2:30 pm.
- If it's NBC, count on 6:30 pm.
Again, if you cannot succeed as a super detective, I get that this is not overly helpful, lmao ... I guess best I can do is to show the games these networks have picked so far by week. I went ahead and tried to guess what order I thought they might have been picked in. Illinois/Michigan is Week 8.
WEEK 1
FOX: #8 Penn State at West Virginia
NBC: Fresno State at #9 Michigan
CBS: Akron at #2 Ohio State
WEEK 2
FOX: #3 Texas at #10 Michigan
NBC: Colorado at Nebraska
CBS: Iowa State at #21 Iowa
WEEK 3
FOX: #4 Alabama at Wisconsin
CBS: #18 Notre Dame at Purdue
NBC: Indiana at UCLA
WEEK 4
CBS: #11 USC at #18 Michigan
NBC: Iowa at Minnesota
FOX: Marshall at #3 Ohio State
WEEK 5
NBC: #24 Illinois at #10 Penn State
CBS: Wisconsin at #11 USC
FOX: Minnesota at #18 Michigan
WEEK 7
NBC: #3 Ohio State at #9 Oregon
WEEK 14
FOX: #18 Michigan at #3 Ohio State (confirmed week with FOX first pick)
Again, I am assuming Illini/Michigan is the "most desired" matchup. Total guess, but I am going to go ahead and guess that the Michigan game will NOT be on NBC ... so cross of 6:30 pm. I also just have a feeling it will not be Big Noon Kickoff ... they are covering Michigan next weekend, and it seems like FOX has already had a lot of weekends where they had the first pick. I'm guessing it will be at 2:30 pm on CBS.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Thinking more about this, I will be really curious to see what the sellout tracker looks like both now and after the PSU game (regardless of outcome). For reference, here is our attendance for Saturday games so far this year, as well as last year:
2024
51,498 vs. Central Michigan
60,670 vs. #19 Kansas
2023 BSaturday Games
42,310 vs. Northwestern (always terribly attended, actually a huge increase)
53,157 vs. Indiana
54,205 vs. Wisconsin
53,512 vs. FAU
49,099 vs. #7 Penn State
48,898 vs. Toledo
It seems we have achieved a relative floor around 50k for a Saturday game that isn't on Thanksgiving weekend, which is a fantastic improvement from where we were. It also looks like the floor for Big Ten games might have moved closer to 53k+ after last year. So, I will guess Purdue attendance as follows:
1. 52,000 if we lose badly at Penn State
2. 55,000 if we lose in a close game to Penn State
3. 58,000+ if we beat PSU, with an outside shot at a sellout.
I do think if we have two or fewer losses leaving Eugene, the Minnesota and MSU home games very likely are pushing sellouts, too. For those wondering, we have not had two sellouts in one season since 2009.
Here are the early Sellout Watch trackers for Purdue and Michigan. @Fighter of the Nightman is pretty spot on from my perspective. I think we're trending toward attendance between 50-55k for Purdue, and Michigan is approaching the point to where a sellout is going to happen. Still a ways to go, but the excitement of the 4-0 start is driving ticket sales, even for a $60 Horseshoe or East Balcony ticket for the Michigan game.
I've found over the last couple years that if the Horseshoe sells out, the game attendance is going to break 50k. The Horseshoe is basically sold out for the Michigan game, but there are still ~5 rows hidden from the ticket site in sections 111-119 for Purdue.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Again, I am of the belief that the Illini/Michigan game will be on FOX, CBS or NBC. And as a reminder, the most used game times for those networks for Big Ten games (by far) are 11:00 am, 2:30 pm and 6:30 pm, respectively. There are examples of Big Ten games at 2:30 pm on FOX, too, but it seems those have more often gone to the Big XII?
So, for whatever little it's worth, here is the updated count of the games so far on those networks ... might help us narrow down which network (and thus which game time) is most likely that weekend:
11:00 am on FOX (Big Noon Kickoff)
W1 - #8 Penn State at West Virginia
W2 - #3 Texas at #10 Michigan
W3 - #4 Alabama at Wisconsin
W4 - Marshall at #3 Ohio State
W5 - Minnesota at #12 Michigan
W6 - UCLA at #9 Penn State
W14 - #12 Michigan at #3 Ohio State
Teams: Ohio State (x3), Michigan (x3), PSU (x2), Wisconsin (x1), Minnesota (x1), UCLA (x1)
2:30 pm on CBS
W1 - Akron at #2 Ohio State
W2 - Iowa State at #21 Iowa
W3 - #18 Notre Dame at Purdue
W4 - #11 USC at #18 Michigan
W5 - Wisconsin at #13 USC
W6 - Iowa at #3 Ohio State
Teams: Ohio State (x2), USC (x2), Iowa (x2), Michigan (x1), Wisconsin (x1), Purdue (x1)
6:30 pm on NBC
W1 - Fresno State at #9 Michigan
W2 - Colorado at Nebraska
W3 - Indiana at UCLA
W4 - Iowa at Minnesota
W5 - #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State
W6 - #12 Michigan at Washington
W7 - #3 Ohio State at #8 Oregon
Teams: Michigan (x2), Illinois (x1), Ohio State (x1), Penn State (x1), Oregon (x1), Nebraska (x1), Washington (x1), Iowa (x1), UCLA (x1), Minnesota (x1), Indiana (x1)
So Michigan has 3 appearances on FOX, 2 on NBC and only 1 on CBS. Illinois has 0 on FOX, 1 on NBC and 0 on CBS. As previously stated, it will come down to which of the three networks drew the first pick for that week, because I think (at least as of now) Illinois/Michigan will be the most desirable game. However, going solely off of how often Michigan has been on each network and the fact that we have been on NBC recently, I would guess 2:30 pm on CBS is still the most likely?
For fun, based on those games this is my guess by week for the order of picks. Ones that are officially confirmed in articles are in green! I tried not to get in my own head with patterns and just picked each week in isolation:
W1 - FOX (PSU at WVU), NBC (FRST at MICH), CBS (AKR at OSU)
W2 - FOX (TEX at MICH), NBC (CU at NEB), CBS (ISU at IOWA)
W3 - FOX (BAMA at WISC), CBS (ND at PUR), NBC (IND at UCLA)
W4 - CBS (USC at MICH), NBC (IOWA at MINN), FOX (MARSH at OSU)
W5 - NBC (ILL at PSU), CBS (WISC at USC), FOX (MINN at MICH) ... really not sure on #2 and #3 here
W6 - CBS (IOWA at OSU), NBC (MICH at WASH), FOX (UCLA at PSU)
W7 - NBC (OSU at ORE)
W8 - [Illini/Michigan week]
W9 - [Illini/Oregon week]
W10 - FOX (TBD)
W11 -
W12 -
W13 -
W14 - FOX (MICH at OSU)
If my guesses are correct and we combine them with what has been confirmed, that means 5 for FOX, 2 for CBS and 2 for NBC so far. Again, I am going to guess the odds favor our week being CBS' pick and us getting that 2:30 pm start time.
P.S. I used this article, among others, for help if anyone is interested!!
So, for whatever little it's worth, here is the updated count of the games so far on those networks ... might help us narrow down which network (and thus which game time) is most likely that weekend:
11:00 am on FOX (Big Noon Kickoff)
W1 - #8 Penn State at West Virginia
W2 - #3 Texas at #10 Michigan
W3 - #4 Alabama at Wisconsin
W4 - Marshall at #3 Ohio State
W5 - Minnesota at #12 Michigan
W6 - UCLA at #9 Penn State
W14 - #12 Michigan at #3 Ohio State
Teams: Ohio State (x3), Michigan (x3), PSU (x2), Wisconsin (x1), Minnesota (x1), UCLA (x1)
2:30 pm on CBS
W1 - Akron at #2 Ohio State
W2 - Iowa State at #21 Iowa
W3 - #18 Notre Dame at Purdue
W4 - #11 USC at #18 Michigan
W5 - Wisconsin at #13 USC
W6 - Iowa at #3 Ohio State
Teams: Ohio State (x2), USC (x2), Iowa (x2), Michigan (x1), Wisconsin (x1), Purdue (x1)
6:30 pm on NBC
W1 - Fresno State at #9 Michigan
W2 - Colorado at Nebraska
W3 - Indiana at UCLA
W4 - Iowa at Minnesota
W5 - #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State
W6 - #12 Michigan at Washington
W7 - #3 Ohio State at #8 Oregon
Teams: Michigan (x2), Illinois (x1), Ohio State (x1), Penn State (x1), Oregon (x1), Nebraska (x1), Washington (x1), Iowa (x1), UCLA (x1), Minnesota (x1), Indiana (x1)
So Michigan has 3 appearances on FOX, 2 on NBC and only 1 on CBS. Illinois has 0 on FOX, 1 on NBC and 0 on CBS. As previously stated, it will come down to which of the three networks drew the first pick for that week, because I think (at least as of now) Illinois/Michigan will be the most desirable game. However, going solely off of how often Michigan has been on each network and the fact that we have been on NBC recently, I would guess 2:30 pm on CBS is still the most likely?
For fun, based on those games this is my guess by week for the order of picks. Ones that are officially confirmed in articles are in green! I tried not to get in my own head with patterns and just picked each week in isolation:
W1 - FOX (PSU at WVU), NBC (FRST at MICH), CBS (AKR at OSU)
W2 - FOX (TEX at MICH), NBC (CU at NEB), CBS (ISU at IOWA)
W3 - FOX (BAMA at WISC), CBS (ND at PUR), NBC (IND at UCLA)
W4 - CBS (USC at MICH), NBC (IOWA at MINN), FOX (MARSH at OSU)
W5 - NBC (ILL at PSU), CBS (WISC at USC), FOX (MINN at MICH) ... really not sure on #2 and #3 here
W6 - CBS (IOWA at OSU), NBC (MICH at WASH), FOX (UCLA at PSU)
W7 - NBC (OSU at ORE)
W8 - [Illini/Michigan week]
W9 - [Illini/Oregon week]
W10 - FOX (TBD)
W11 -
W12 -
W13 -
W14 - FOX (MICH at OSU)
If my guesses are correct and we combine them with what has been confirmed, that means 5 for FOX, 2 for CBS and 2 for NBC so far. Again, I am going to guess the odds favor our week being CBS' pick and us getting that 2:30 pm start time.
P.S. I used this article, among others, for help if anyone is interested!!
Thanks for this insight! What's your take on the possible Purdue start times?
Updated Sellout Watch trackers for Purdue and Michigan:
