Pregame: Illinois at Penn State, Saturday, September 28th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

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#426      
illinipioneer
CaptainCrutch said:
I’ve listened to a ton of podcasts breaking this down. Most are talking out of their butts expecting a big cover.

I have seen one or two give really good analysis, and yes they still pick PSU to win.

Sounds like the concerns for Illinois are that Penn state basically hasn’t played anyone yet so they might be conservative and have some stuff we haven’t seen, plus it’s gonna be a huge home advantage, and there’s way more depth. Their run game is really, really good and they have a top-notch OC guiding it. If there’s weaknesses, kotelnicky will find them. He’s beat AHen’s brakes off before, I think he’s ready to do it again.

We win if Luke’s hot streak continues, Drew Allar falters against what is unquestionably the best defense he’s faced this season, and we take advantage of our favorable special teams unit.

WWWWWillinois.
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I see the logic but Aller is not the running threat we saw with KU that changes the approach, can’t use the transitive property in this case.
 
#431      
21ChampaignSt
When it comes to celebs sporting Illini gear, this is my favorite. Mostly because of the pure randomness of it.
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#435      
1970 John
The Galloping Ghost said:
I'm well past an age where I care to listen to a bunch of national dudes opine about teams they barely know, let alone follow, but I wouldn't mind if our guys were tuning in for an extra chip on their shoulder. The worst people around are out here giving us zero respect. I hope we make them eat their words.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840048007368130760
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840050436830633988
https://twitter.com/x/status/1840051960172470351
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Safe pick for the talking heads. And probably the right one for them to make. It's up to Illinois to prove them wrong. They have been wrong every game against a ranked team so far this year.
 
#437      
JFGsCoffeeMug
If we win, just watch all of the analysts fall over one another to call out everyone else for underestimating this Illinois team.
 
#450      
STLini25
Piotyr said:
The line continues to be bizarre to me. Sure, Texas beat Michigan by 18 earlier in the year, but even that felt like more of a beatdown than we'll see in this game.

I'd much more expect PSU to be about 10 points better than Illinois on a neutral field, so give them 3 more points for being at home and that's still 13, 5-6 points shy of the actual line. Plus, Bielema has never lost on the road to a ranked team by more than 10. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but of the potential outcomes, I'd put "PSU wins by 3 touchdowns" far down the list of likeliness. Here's how my head thinks:

30%: PSU wins by 11-17 points
30%: PSU wins by 1-10 points
20%: ILL wins by 1-10 points
15%: ILL wins by 11-17 points
3%: PSU wins by 18+
2%: ILL wins by 18+
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You’d give 33 to 1 odds that PSU wins by 18+ ? 😳 I wish you made lines for a Sportsbook
 
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