Penn State 21, Illinois 7 Postgame

#176      
10-2 and the only loses to Top 10 Penn State and Top 10 Oregon both on the road is in the top 12.
It would really depend on what other teams do. Only 7 at-large bids. Only lock for top 12 would be 11-1, IMO (finishing outside of B1G Champ game).

I personally do not think 10-2 would be enough given Kansas win does not look great, and it is to be seen how the Nebraska win ages. I think Illinois would need to win both Michigan and @Oregon to feel good about playoff chances. I think 10-2 with losses at PSU and Oregon would be 25% at best to get in top 12 playoff.
 
#178      
It would really depend on what other teams do. Only 7 at-large bids. Only lock for top 12 would be 11-1, IMO (finishing outside of B1G Champ game).

I personally do not think 10-2 would be enough given Kansas win does not look great, and it is to be seen how the Nebraska win ages. I think Illinois would need to win both Michigan and @Oregon to feel good about playoff chances. I think 10-2 with losses at PSU and Oregon would be 25% at best to get in top 12 playoff.
I agree and probably less than 25% chance. I would be shocked if any 10-2 team makes the top 12
 
#181      
Why, when we have a quarterback with an alleged cannon arm, do we not throw downfield.
Because we have a sieve for an offensive line. There is insufficient time for a downfield game to develop.
 
#182      
Wild, but Indiana has an easier path to 10-2 than the Illini. Win at Northwestern and Michigan State. Beat three of Nebraska, Washington, Purdue or Michigan at home. Likely loss at tOSU.
 
#183      
a 10-2 Michigan with losses to UT & OSU could get in
Agree. Last year there were 5 teams in the top 12 with 10-2 records and in the top 25 only Liberty and SMU had less than three losses. They were 23 and 24.
 
#185      
Penn St. figured out that by pressuring our QB and pinning their ears back and going after Luke every down was more than we could handle. I hope that doesn't give other teams the cheat code for beating us. It doesn't seem as if we have the ability to counter that, whether with our offensive linemen or play calling.
Coaches better figure it out and how to stop the run because Michigan is going to do the same things.
 
#187      
You are wrong. Both the D and O lines are decent. The D line is performing better than anticipated following the loss of Newton. Penn St has a solid O line and two of the best RBs in the country. If anything, Illinois' front seven got hammered by physically punishing RBs. Even so, Penn St did not roll over Illinois and blow them out. Meanwhile, the O line kept PSU's vaunted edge rushers in check for most of the game--and many times the Illini tackles were one-on-one with PSU's NFL-bound OLBs/DEs. Altmyer was not heavily pressured until late, when PSU got up two scores and simply pinned their ears back. While the O line made some mistakes, they played solid against a defensive front that was supposed to dominant Illinois. Most importantly, it's a team game. Sometimes when the rushing attack, for instance, doesn't gain yardage, it's the O line's fault (or the defense's credit). But sometimes it's the RB's fault for not hitting the hole, or it's the TE's or WR's fault for missing a block. And sometimes when Altmyer is pressured or sacked it's the O line's fault, but sometimes it's the QB's fault for holding the ball too long, or breaking the pocket when he shouldn't. To simply grumble, "our D and O lines are not very good," fails to recognize so many factors--and it fails to recognize that Penn State knew they were in a ball game.
 
#188      
I agree to an extent--namely that the interior of the O line has not been as strong as expected. But . . . it would help the O line immensely if the RBs consistently hit the hole on time. This is the Big Ten--big boy football. The holes are not going to be gaping every play. Sometimes there's just a crease. RBs gotta hit it!
 
#191      
The O line is better than last year--especially at the tackles. The interior of the line needs to improve and can do so, as the season progresses.

It is WAY TOO EARLY to be talking nonsense about "we can be a very good team next year" (whine). B.S. We can be a very good team this year.
 
#192      
If the Illini continue to improve as a program year-over-year, they have a much larger recruiting base close at hand than Iowa. Illinois is situated well between several major population centers, which produce a lot of talented players. The more Illinois improves, the more Illinois will be able to attract "local" talent. Every year the Notre Dames & Ohio States of the country snag talent out of Chicagoland, for instance. While bigtime programs will still get their share of local talent, if Illinois can keep this upward trend going, they will increasingly be able to recruit their pick of local talent from Chicago and St. Louis and other regional population centers.
 
#193      
Penn felt that Illinois got overwhelmed. Quote from a Penn lineman:
Vega Ioane, the Penn State guard who is playing at an elite level this season, looked across the line of scrimmage in the second quarter and saw a wearying Illinois defense.

"Every block I made, it seemed like they didn't even want to try against me anymore," Ioane said late Saturday night at Beaver Stadium.
That may be. But isn't funny how Penn State didn't blow Illinois out? Even the two score margin was earned until late in the game, with the help of a defensive turnover deep in Illini territory. Hmmm . . .
 
#194      
Absolutely. Beyond the bad snap, he got manhandled numerous times vs. PSU.
Kreutz is tough as nails, and by all accounts, smart as a whip. But (unfortunately) he's undersized. It was unfortunate to make such a terrible unforced error at that crucial moment in the game. But I trust that he's mentally tough enough to put that behind him and move forward.
 
#195      
That may be. But isn't funny how Penn State didn't blow Illinois out? Even the two score margin was earned until late in the game, with the help of a defensive turnover deep in Illini territory. Hmmm . . .
I’m just pleased the Blowout Era is behind us. Today I watched a recording of the PSI game (busy yesterday). We were a threat until the turnover with 6:00 remaining. I’m looking forward to competitive games from here on out. Wonderful, steady progress.
 
#196      
I agree and probably less than 25% chance. I would be shocked if any 10-2 team makes the top 12
People tend to think this every year, but in reality it was actually fairly common for 2 loss teams to be in the Top 8 in the BCS era. I would expect 1 or 2 3 loss teams to make the Top 12 each year.

For perspective during the BCS era:
4 major bowl years:
1999: 2L-2, 3L-1
2000: 2L-4, 3L-1
2001: 2L-2, 3L-1
2002: 2L-2, 3L-1
2003: 2L-3, 3L-0, 4L-1
2004: 2L-4, 3L-1
2005: 2L-2, 3L-1
2006: 2L-3, 3L-0, 4L-1
----------‐------------------------
5 major bowl years:
2007: 2L-5, 3L-0
2008: 2L-6, 3L-1
2009: 2L-2, 3L-0, 4L-1
2010: 2L-4, 3L-0
2011: 2L-3, 3L-0, 4L-1
2012: 2L-4, 3L-2
2013: 2L-3, 3L-0, 4L-0, 5L-1
2014: 2L-3

I'd also go over the last 9 years but how they compiled games during those years is more cumbersome to include. In any case, the point is there was never a year during the BCS years that multiple 2 loss or more teams didn't make the Top 8.

We're way jumping out ahead of our skis here, but I can all but guarantee that a 2 loss Illinois team with losses only to PSU and one of Oregon/Michigan/OSU and wins over Nebraska and 2 of Oregon, Michigan, or OSU would absolutely make the playoffs.

I'd even go so far as to say if a 2 loss B10 team with those type of wins and those type of losses didn't make the playoffs it would be one of the most blatant screw jobs imaginable as in all likelihood, they'd be replaced by multiple 2 loss teams with worse wins and losses and a couple 3 loss teams. There would be rioting
 
#197      
The O line is better than last year--especially at the tackles. The interior of the line needs to improve and can do so, as the season progresses.

It is WAY TOO EARLY to be talking nonsense about "we can be a very good team next year" (whine). B.S. We can be a very good team this year.
I agree about your Oline views. Valentine is our only back with a real instinctual feel or knack for hitting those tight creases, which is probably why he's playing as a true freshman. Our tackles did fine, in fact they highlighted a few plays where JC Davis repeatedly neutralized their star edge rusher in pass pro. But because we couldn't get a run game going (our IOL lacked push, but their interior DLs were the quickest we've faced), it basically tipped our hand and they could send the kitchen sink at Luke.
 
#198      
Penn St. figured out that by pressuring our QB and pinning their ears back and going after Luke every down was more than we could handle. I hope that doesn't give other teams the cheat code for beating us. It doesn't seem as if we have the ability to counter that, whether with our offensive linemen or play calling.

There are very few teams with talent and athletic ability up front that PSU has. It's not going to be a given that other teams will have success playing the same way.
 
#199      
I look at the average more than the total, because IMO a smaller class of better (more impactful in theory) players is better than a larger class of worse players. The portal can solution for a smaller class. We're a point above NW and effectively the same as Indinia, Minnesota, and Michigan state. So roughly tied for 14th in average.

You have to wonder how much difference there is when the average difference between two teams is less than one point. If you consider that, we're within a point of Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA, and Maryland. Add it to the teams we are marginally ahead, and you could say we're in a large cluster between 10th and 18th. 18th is probably not a material real life reflection.
 
#200      
1. Lots of offensive line discussion after the game (warranted). Kreutz had a couple poorly timed and noticeable errors that brought up a lot of negative attention, but the main concern is the guards. Gesky put up a 0.0 pass block rating yesterday: (a) that's really hard to do and (b) incredible after he put up a starting stretch of pass blocking rates of 83.2 - 72.2 - 82.9 - 86.0. Going into last night he was the team's best pass blocker. Was PSU doing something schematically that will spell out future issues with him? Or was this because superior talent was lined up across from him? The other issue is Crisler. I've shared my thoughts on him before so I won't belabor the point so I'll stick to the stats. His PFF grade has regressed every week and it was never in a good spot.
2. Grateful the issues are interior offensive line instead of the tackles, as there are more replacement options. Wigenton played yesterday and performed well (small sample size). Whitenack did okay but didn't do well against Nebraska (again, small sample size). The staff has shown a lot of loyalty to Crisler. He's only put up one game over 2.5 years of starting that is rated 70+ on PFF. If it's me, I'm coming out against Purdue with a starting offensive line of Davis - Gesky - Kreutz - Wigenton - Priestly.
3. 1st down run success has been awful all year. Altmyer & Bryant/Franklin have masked a lot of those issues, which has allowed Illinois to continue "working" on their run game. PSU was a different beast and made Illinois pay for their sins.
4. Altmyer has been excellent and I'm hate to besmirch his improved season. The issue is when he feels pressure, his eyes come down permanently. It's a tough thing to improve in-season, so let's hope next offseason that he can take the mechanical steps to evade the pocket and start re-scanning downfield. I am concerned that teams will start bringing more and more pressure earlier in the game
5. The risk for defenses to bringing more pressure is Bryant and Franklin are deadly and it increases limited coverage on one or both of them. I'm sure teams see the benefit of pressuring Altmyer (galaxy brain take here: pressuring the QB is good!) but the risk has been too much with Illinois providing good pass protection. Now that Illinois' offensive line had their nose bloodied, maybe teams will start to re-consider (hence the importance to re-kindle the week 1-4 magic).
6. Defensive line was finally bullied. First game where it felt like I was begging to borrow the Law Firm for a handful of important snaps. It was bound to happen and I was thoroughly impressed with Penn State's running backs. Those dudes are cannon balls. TeRah rated well, Sledge well in limited snaps. There's still some hope there but it's going to be a sore spot all year.
7. I feel less confident about the Michigan game after this outcome. Michigan is going to follow the same blueprint as PSU in the second half and bully ball it the entire game. Penn State is the superior team because they can do things in the passing game that Michigan can't, but I'm sure UM is satisfied to see their approach was proven as a successful option tonight.
8. That final possession of first half was a soul crusher. Bad snap was inappropriately timed, but it happens. After that, the staff seemed determined to run the ball to make sure Penn State didn't get another crack before halftime instead of optimizing play call to score a TD. I understand the decision-making, and there were other poorly-timed penalties that created the outcome, just not sure I understand the lack of aggressiveness when you're QB has been playing so well all season and there were big warning signs that Penn State was going to start running at will in the second half.
9. Saw some complaints about the lack of athleticism at LB coming home to roost. A couple thoughts about that: (1) we've had a recent history running gag about Illinois being in contention for a 4*, athletic LB late in each recruiting cycle and never, ever landing them. Adeoye, Rolder, Cheeks, Merlin Robertson, now likely Alford, all were recruits that the staffs recruited to the final whistle and lost to other programs. It's been an issues. (2) That said, I don't think it's the biggest issue because moving Bailey down into the box provides an (athletic) solution, and it's something we'll likely see more often to alleviate the run defense concerns.
10. Glad to repeat this one: Illinois has been relatively healthy this year, especially in-season. I'm sure some guys are nursing injuries, so the bye week will provide some relief in other ways.
 
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