You’re just a ray of sunshine, lol. Plenty of negativity in basketball season but suspiciously nothing as we won a BTT championship and made an Elite Eight? But back to drag us all back down in time for football, haha … because you’re so “realistic” or something.
This sucks. Stop scheduling non-conference losses.
My favorite is that TJ was a liabilityYou’re just a ray of sunshine, lol. Plenty of negativity in basketball season but suspiciously nothing as we won a BTT championship and made an Elite Eight? But back to drag us all back down in time for football, haha … because you’re so “realistic” or something.
Kinda interesting how...
Does Josh have any knowledge of the 60-year history of our ridiculous non-conference scheduling in football? Have any of our insiders tried to fill him in? You can start with our love affair with the Pac-8/10/12 that stopped Bob Blackman from ever achieving a winning season. Was is it about West Coast teams and Illini ADs? Are we trying it impress some West Coast alums at the expense of a winning season? Or is it the allure of an all-expense paid trip to Cali for a bunch of administrators?
You're right. KFord is not always spot on. For example, last year his model predicted 6 wins for us with a 50% probability of 7 wins. What's so bad about determining the average of a number of experts that are all predicting using a variety of models? I don't get what's so bad about that. It's easy to hate on everyone that doesn't tell you your team is going to win 7 or more games.Perspective on the numbers presented to spark a panic here: Kelley Ford is a 2015 graduate of Purdue (B.S. Mechanical Engineering) now working as a media sports analyst. He massages other peoples’ ratings to derive a ”probability of winning”, reported to the nearest percentage point, creating an illusion of significance. Sounds like he builds models whose inputs are other modelers’ outputs (e.g. power ratings and resume rankings). GIGO. Anybody can build models. Apparently he’s a personable media guy but how have his predictions played out in hindsight?
”Kelley Ford stands as a notable authority within the sports content community, particularly in the realms of college football and basketball. Ford's analytic approach to sports, leveraging power ratings and resume rankings, cements his status as a go-to source for insightful sports analysis. His deep understanding of prediction markets and his ability to dissect game strategies give him a distinctive voice in sports journalism.”
Not hating on him. He seems like a nice guy. I’m just skeptical of attempts to predict the unpredictable, especially w/ probabilities presented to the nearest percentage point, implying an impossible degree of significance. That’s a red flag statistically. And modeling other models (as well as subjective opinions) as inputs seems likely to propagate and magnify errors. It’s not like meta analysis of real data. It’s opinion, framed as science, not something to be either greatly encouraged nor discouraged about. There’s a reason we play the games.
Flip that, I firmly believe!!!
He is modelling the defense to go from 58 to 41 but the offense to regress from 80 to 87. I think the defense taking a projected step forward is expected but we need the offense to take a big step up in order to reach 6 wins. I do believe however that this offense can be in the top half of the B1G by season's end if things go as we hope.
Exactly. I think the term is spurious precision, especially for what is constructed from what are multiple educated guesses.
Sounds like quite the sports authority whose status as such is cemented. Lots of buzzwords to back it up too. Don’t question it.Perspective on the numbers presented to spark a panic here: Kelley Ford is a 2015 graduate of Purdue (B.S. Mechanical Engineering) now working as a media sports analyst. He massages other peoples’ ratings to derive a ”probability of winning”, reported to the nearest percentage point, creating an illusion of significance. Sounds like he builds models whose inputs are other modelers’ outputs (e.g. power ratings and resume rankings). GIGO. Anybody can build models. Apparently he’s a personable media guy but how have his predictions played out in hindsight?
”Kelley Ford stands as a notable authority within the sports content community, particularly in the realms of college football and basketball. Ford's analytic approach to sports, leveraging power ratings and resume rankings, cements his status as a go-to source for insightful sports analysis. His deep understanding of prediction markets and his ability to dissect game strategies give him a distinctive voice in sports journalism.”
I seem to recall a time (back in the 70s?) where when fans were surveyed, one of the biggest reasons for lack of attending football games was that we played a crappy non conference schedule. If my recollection is true, it probably played a part in our scheduling plan for any number of years. Does anyone else remember this? Loren Tate would surely know.
For those like me who didn't know.
One of the Fan Council's discussions was a desire to schedule good, regional schools in football and basketball. That is probably a contributing reason why we will be playing Mizzou from 2026-2029 and 2032-2035.
Yes, but did they ask the fan council if losing to good regional schools every year was a good idea. That is why this argument does not hold merit to me.
