Insiders, how is JoJo Hayden doing in practices? With the hype around him coming here and with where we are right now, could we really be hurt any further by giving him some opportunities?
Illini Football 2023
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Thanks for running the numbers. These are incredible. Now think about the merch sales for both team gear and Prime gear. That's how Colorado is ensuring Deion makes bank on the growth of the fanbase. That's why Jackson State couldn't keep him; his contract didn't have any upside for filling the stadium or selling out away games. With his contract at CO, the team and the Prime brands are partners with distinct revenue streams, and Deion doesn't have to share. Think about it, fans can buy Coach Prime gear at away games...that's not normal for college football.
The WWE-like entertainment and hype he's using is a deliberate money printing machine, and Deion is a genius for pulling it off. I'm not actually a fan of the hype, (it doesn't affect me, I'm not a viewer), but I love the screen-time feedback loop business model of the CU-Prime partnership.
Rick George has done more to secure Colorado football's financial future than any AD since whoever brought Saban to Alabama. After last year's 1-11 record, they were staring into the abyss. Respect the success.
Bret lobbied to get Lunney a contract extension after last year. I don't see a possibility of him getting let go until after 2024 season
As a Finance guy I appreciate the money argument, but feel there are more aspects to the story.Everyone. We are P2 now. We are no longer P5. As a fandom and as an administration we need to elevate our expectations. We should no longer consider ourselves peers with the ACC, BIG12, and whatever happens with the PAC.
We already have the 24th highest athletic revenue of all schools and the advantage is going to widen significantly over the non-P2 schools. We need the mindset that the UNCs, V-Techs, K States, Utahs of the athletic world are the proving ground for our potential candidates. They are no longer our peers. We need to be selling these P5 leftover staffs on the idea that there are 32 P2 jobs, we’re one of them, and we have a balance sheet the non-P2 schools simply cannot match.
For example, we currently have $20 million more in revenue than UNC. These next 6 years that gap is going to increase by $30-$50 million dollars per year. If we don’t begin surpassing a school like UNC athletically due to this massive revenue advantage and windfall then it’s an administration failure - plain and simple.
We need to raise the bar. It’s already too low, and there is absolutely no justification for the administration to blame poor performance on finances. Us legacy fans have been conditioned to think that way, and it’s false; the numbers don’t lie.
NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY
Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.sports.usatoday.com
On the human side, I'm not sure that extra money will still get us the talent to come here (if Bret were not). Making $6M a year at Illinois to win 4-5 games is probably not as attractive to a head coach as going to a B12 or ACC school and making $5M a year but winning 8-9 games. We still have a very poor national reputation (same old Illinois).
Also yes we are P2 but that has not changed our position within the P2 at all. All those schools also will benefit from the additional TV money, and all those schools will also be competing for the same future talent.
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217sports
- Springfield
Assuming the season continues as is, Bret pretty much has to get rid of him to have a shed a trust going into next season from the fanbase. It wasn't like Lunney was an amazing OC last year and this is a down year. Someone has to be the scapegoat.
Fans were frustrated with not picking up points last season but it was overlooked because Illinois was winning. Stellar defense with shady special teams/offensive play. We were 95th in scoring last season and 119th so far this season. Putting points on the board is about the same as last season in my opinion even with different personnel.
The two main reasons for even being 95th last season is because Defensive points are added to that number and the Defense set the Offense up a number of short drives last season. Wisconsin game for example....INT at Wisconsin 16 and took it in 7 plays later for a TD. Wisconsin kick return fumble at 16 again and Illini go -10 yards and kick a FG. That is 10 direct points inside the 20 yard line. Nebraska game we return INT back to the 11 yard line and the offense takes it in for TD in 2 plays. Illini cause fumble and have it at Nebraska 25 yard line. Four plays with 2 yards gained and we kick a FG. Multiple Defensive TDs in Northwestern game, Def TD in UVA game, etc. The D contributed to a decent number of points last season and while we moved the chains the offensive scoring is staying around the same rate.
Things can change but this could be 3 straight years under BB of having one of the worst offensive scoring teams in the nation........
The two main reasons for even being 95th last season is because Defensive points are added to that number and the Defense set the Offense up a number of short drives last season. Wisconsin game for example....INT at Wisconsin 16 and took it in 7 plays later for a TD. Wisconsin kick return fumble at 16 again and Illini go -10 yards and kick a FG. That is 10 direct points inside the 20 yard line. Nebraska game we return INT back to the 11 yard line and the offense takes it in for TD in 2 plays. Illini cause fumble and have it at Nebraska 25 yard line. Four plays with 2 yards gained and we kick a FG. Multiple Defensive TDs in Northwestern game, Def TD in UVA game, etc. The D contributed to a decent number of points last season and while we moved the chains the offensive scoring is staying around the same rate.
Things can change but this could be 3 straight years under BB of having one of the worst offensive scoring teams in the nation........
Regarding media money, the B12 will bring in ~$32M per year, the ACC ~$40M per year, B10 is $80-100M per year. If each Big Ten school is bringing in ~$50M more each year than those other conferences and the excuse is you can't poach a B12 or ACC coach making $5M because we will only offer $6M, I think this is the low bar and conditioning that previous poster was referring too.
With the transfer portal and unlimited in-flux of players per year you can legally, by the rules, use that ~$50M of extra money to offer to double the salary of every coach and staff member of the mid tier B12/ACC school of your choice. And then use your new staff to recruit in that schools players as transfers into your program. And I wouldn't put it past the SEC teams to start laundering money from program to players if they haven't already, rules be da**ed.
Even if you have an OSU situation (Gundy or Smith) where the coach is the former QB and is tied to the school beyond a doubling or tripling of salary, you can conceivably double or triple everyone of their staff's salary and poach them.
Nice analysis. I agree we need to not put on the blinders and treat this like just 6 games that are our of Lunney's control
All I see described here is higher and higher coaching salaries as the additional TV money flows from Fox to the the schools to the coaches. Sure we can offer the Utah coach 2 or 3 times his annual salary. That is no guarantee of success. And I absolutely do question whether a successful UNC or VT coach would move to Illinois unless the money increase was insane (which I suppose was the OP's original point).
But none of the above, regardless of who ends up correct, addresses the second point. There are 30+ schools in the P2 next year, how does the new money differentiate Illinois from any of the others?
Otherwise known as the Ferentz clause
Yes, I am talking insane money increases. Bret came here for what $4.2M starting salary and maybe there were coaches not interested at that level. Do we know who is interested at $12.6M per year or more? I'm saying that the decision on Bret in P5 world is asking if he is one of the 60 or so best coaches, now it is if Bret is one of the best 35 coaches in a P2 landscape. $30M buyout shouldn't matter. If you take off the orange colored glasses and rank the coaches 1 through Bret without bias are there coaches better than him that would come for that insane salary. I do not know, just thinking hypothetically.
Florida St. and Clemson are freaked out knowing Florida, South Carolina, etc will have the resources to buy their coaching staff's.
Maybe it does not get you to be in the OSU, Mich, USC tier, but the first step is being better than the Pitt's, K St's, and BC's of the world just like we should be better than the MAC schools because of the overwhelming resource differential.
I don’t know if he’s in the category we need to turn this around. If I remember right, they have less total offensive yards than Illinois and avg like 1.5 pts more per game. No one said you said to hire him but him and Chryst would be at different tiers of experience and Bielema comfort level in my mind. I’m not saying Chryst is the answer either.
Thank you @illinistephen continuing defense of the point because I think we‘re in total agreement.
@Battle89 your questions of whether we could solicit a UNC or VTech coach is the administration failure I’m referring to. We need to eradicate these ideas that we’re an undesirable program. The college athletics market has been transformed. Those regional barriers that existed for programs like us should be gone, and if they remain its Whitman‘s fault. He’s going to have a such a tremendous financial advantage over other schools that there is no excuse for a lack of results.
At this point being one of the worst P2 schools ranked 25-30 each year would be a huge improvement. Let’s get there first before we start comparing ourselves to our fellow P2 peers with a similar war chest.
We need a better staff, we need improved recruiting, the facilities I’m told are already on par. We need to up the marketing budget and invest in the fans. We need to look at it as generational investment that will pay off in the decades to come. I think the idea that we need to start winning before the fans will engage themselves is a lazy and short sighted approach. We need to make a splash, and I’m doubting this current administration is going to pull it off.
@Battle89 your questions of whether we could solicit a UNC or VTech coach is the administration failure I’m referring to. We need to eradicate these ideas that we’re an undesirable program. The college athletics market has been transformed. Those regional barriers that existed for programs like us should be gone, and if they remain its Whitman‘s fault. He’s going to have a such a tremendous financial advantage over other schools that there is no excuse for a lack of results.
At this point being one of the worst P2 schools ranked 25-30 each year would be a huge improvement. Let’s get there first before we start comparing ourselves to our fellow P2 peers with a similar war chest.
We need a better staff, we need improved recruiting, the facilities I’m told are already on par. We need to up the marketing budget and invest in the fans. We need to look at it as generational investment that will pay off in the decades to come. I think the idea that we need to start winning before the fans will engage themselves is a lazy and short sighted approach. We need to make a splash, and I’m doubting this current administration is going to pull it off.
Yes and they are playing mostly Freshman and Sophomores at main positions like I put because of the gambling ring. They lost starting QB, RB, 2 OL and TE right before the season. Pretty much the kiss of death for a 1st year OC and still scoring more points than us. We both agree I am not sure if Scheelhaase or Chryst are the answer but I stated BB should give them a call if the OC spot becomes available. First part is making a change.....wait and see what season that takes place
Aspirationally, I'm right there with you, and financially if TV money could go directly to recruits (rather than via NIL collectives), the above seems more viable.
I just don't think money alone will get us to the levels above. Partially, yes. And I also think that 'one of the worst P2 schools' means a ranking still far below 25-30. The P2 alone will be 34 members next year, and I think that several teams (at least) at the top of the non-P2 will be ranked every year, if for no other reason that somebody has to win those leagues and therefore will have good win / loss records. So Illinois would be lucky to be ranked 40-ish, even in the best light of the above. Granted, and to your point, this would be much better than today.
If much of this is seemingly pessimistic and just in my head, then mea culpa. But I do believe that 99% of the college football world does think of Illinois as an undesirable program (like the Nebraska recruit who de-committed last week). You can make other inroads with money alone - like fixing the south end of the stadium (shout out @Fighter of the Nightman ), but that infrastructure change will just get an attendance and energy boost for the re-dedication game and a few after. You need winning to engage fans, this seems obvious to me. I do not find it short-sighted or lazy, all the marketing in the world will not generate interest in a losing program.
And this administration, including both the athletic department and the university leadership, is the most sports-friendly administration Illinois has had in 30-40 years. That's a low bar though, I suppose.
Good debate, anyway, and thanks to all for the thoughtful responses!
Cool, even better in Kreutz's favor then.
College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings
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cuillini
- San Bernardino, Ca.
Auburn's first 3 games were against a murder's row consisting of UMASS, Cal and Samford.
Is this site/schema legit?Cool, even better in Kreutz's favor then.
College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings
Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 133 NCAA Division 1 Football teams.powerrankingsguru.com
I'm not excited by our W-L record but if we truly have played a top 15 SOS to date it's something to add to the overall conversation (not that it changes everything said about our offense, OL, etc)
Can Avery Jones snap the ball from under center? Or snap from the shotgun not at his QB's ankles? Those 2 things don't factor into PFF. Not being able to snap while the QB is under center severely limits the playbook, especially in short yardage.
illini80
- Forgottonia
I’ve heard these comments, but not the reason behind why we aren't’ comfortable under center. Is is Josh or Luke? Seems like something you’d want in your arsenal.
Based on the Nebraska game, Josh isn't comfortable in the shotgun either. He must have put a dozen balls below Luke's knees.
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