Illini Basketball 2024-2025

#51      
Poe's Law
mysterio2525 said:
No way he averages 9 assists a game... When was the last time a big ten player did that? And without edey sucking in the defense for wide open shooters or easy dump off to edey for quick bucket. No way.

I think Purdue takes a step back for sure. I'll go 16/6/4 for Braden and it's borderline first team/second team big ten.... Still very good year
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Is there some place I can bet on his assist numbers dropping? No easy dump ins to Edey and no longer a top 10 offense.

Still wouldn’t bet against him makin All Big Ten, but I’d hammer the under at 9 APG and would heavily bet under 7.5. IANAPG.
 
#53      
rtbritt
Poe's Law said:
Is there some place I can bet on his assist numbers dropping? No easy dump ins to Edey and no longer a top 10 offense.
Still wouldn’t bet against him makin All Big Ten, but I’d hammer the under at 9 APG and would heavily bet under 7.5. IANAPG.
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It seems that dude's comment and prediction of 9 assists caught all of our eyes. I was coming to post the same thing. No way he gets more assists without all the easy tosses to Edey just inside the FT line for the easy score. How high is Edey's hand reaching above his head? 8.5 ft? Toss it up where no one can grab it and let him score. I bet he gets 3 assists a game off a simple play like that. I'm kind of just guessing.
 
#55      
thefalcon5
Someone play devils advocate and tell me, other than history and Painter, why Purdue is a clear front runner for BIG champs.

They have talent but lose one of the best players in CBB history and replace him with no one.
 
#56      
Second place is 1st loser
#57      
ChiefGritty
thefalcon5 said:
Someone play devils advocate and tell me, other than history and Painter, why Purdue is a clear front runner for BIG champs.

They have talent but lose one of the best players in CBB history and replace him with no one.
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They're the only one of last year's good Big Ten teams that's returning a lot.

I interpret them being at the top of that poll not as a great degree of certainty that they'll be the best team, but that they are the most certain to be AMONG the good teams.

The range of potential outcomes contains more downside risk for everybody else.
 
#58      
OrangeBlue98
The Athletic has a pre-season Big Ten ranking. Indiana was third with Illinois fourth.

Exactly what are people seeing in Indiana? I don't get it. They are still coached by Mike Woodson, and he'll still run the most inefficient offense in college or pro basketball with guys chucking up 19-21 foot jumpers (the worst shot on an expected points basis in the game). Do they really have that much of an upgrade in talent to overcome his playing style?
 
#59      
thefalcon5
OrangeBlue98 said:
The Athletic has a pre-season Big Ten ranking. Indiana was third with Illinois fourth.

Exactly what are people seeing in Indiana? I don't get it. They are still coached by Mike Woodson, and he'll still run the most inefficient offense in college or pro basketball with guys chucking up 19-21 foot jumpers (the worst shot on an expected points basis in the game). Do they really have that much of an upgrade in talent to overcome his playing style?
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They have a ton of proven high major talent and check a bunch of boxes they’ve missed in previous Woodson years.

Frankly if I’m IU, Woodson is gone if he doesn’t finish top 3. Zero excuses this year.
 
#60      
FeelYourPaign
ChiefGritty said:
They're the only one of last year's good Big Ten teams that's returning a lot.

I interpret them being at the top of that poll not as a great degree of certainty that they'll be the best team, but that they are the most certain to be AMONG the good teams.

The range of potential outcomes contains more downside risk for everybody else.
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A good way of expressing things
 
#61      
ptgrd23
thefalcon5 said:
They have a ton of proven high major talent and check a bunch of boxes they’ve missed in previous Woodson years.
Frankly if I’m IU, Woodson is gone if he doesn’t finish top 3. Zero excuses this year.
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Woodson has done terrible roster construction and lineups in past 3 years. He has ignored 3 point shooting and played 2-3 post players at same time. Its like he thinks he is coaching in 1980s. He has a lot more talent and several good portal guards this year but if they win it will be in spite of him not because of him. He also has not recruited HS well. Very little improvement in 3 years. I suspect he will be gone no matter what in 2 seasons.

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Contrast him with Hoiberg who has been steadily improving at football school with very small HS recruiting in-state pool
1727892095565.png
 
#64      
pruman91
thefalcon5 said:
Someone play devils advocate and tell me, other than history and Painter, why Purdue is a clear front runner for BIG champs.

They have talent but lose one of the best players in CBB history and replace him with no one.
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They have a talented 7'4" frosh to replace him.........Not as good as Sasquatch was but has skills......I watched him play in some tourney a while back and he can play.................JMHO............
 
#65      
FrankNitty30
RockfordIllini said:
I don’t know. He averaged 12/7.5/6 last year in a complementary role to Edey. Maybe he struggles now that Edey won’t suck up so much attention. But now that it’s “his” team, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he will put up something like 16/9/5 this year. I don’t see any obvious candidates to average 20+ this year, so if Smith puts up that statline he’s at least in the running. It always seems like someone emerges though. Will see who it is. But given a lack of clear alternatives, I understand why Smith is the preseason POY.
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16/9/5? Wow, a lot better players than him NEVER came close to those numbers.
 
#66      
PepeSilvia
ptgrd23 said:
Woodson has done terrible roster construction and lineups in past 3 years. He has ignored 3 point shooting and played 2-3 post players at same time. Its like he thinks he is coaching in 1980s. He has a lot more talent and several good portal guards this year but if they win it will be in spite of him not because of him. He also has not recruited HS well. Very little improvement in 3 years. I suspect he will be gone no matter what in 2 seasons.

View attachment 36607
Contrast him with Hoiberg who has been steadily improving at football school with very small HS recruiting in-state pool
View attachment 36608
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I think people really underestimate how good of a coach Hoiberg is. Other coaches have caught up to him because of the transfer portal(he used to make a killing on transfers at Iowa St) but he does a fantastic job of creating open looks.

All that being said I think he needs to start recruiting better athletes. Last year's team was fun because of Tominaga but Williams was the only player that looked like he belonged athletically at the Big10 level. Mast is big and can stretch the floor but he's painfully slow.

Will be interesting to see how he does this year(Mast is out for the season which hurts), but Williams is returning and honestly might be the biggest snub from the preseason all big10 team.
 
#69      
JKR
mysterio2525 said:
No way he averages 9 assists a game... When was the last time a big ten player did that? And without edey sucking in the defense for wide open shooters or easy dump off to edey for quick bucket. No way.

I think Purdue takes a step back for sure. I'll go 16/6/4 for Braden and it's borderline first team/second team big ten.... Still very good year
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McCamey holds the Illinois record at 7.1 in 2010.
 
#70      
One Man Fast Break
Indiana has a good roster on paper.

6'9 F Malik Reneau - returning 15 PPG starter
6'2 G Myles Rice - was Pac-12 Freshman of the Year last season
6'5 G Trey Galloway - returning 11 PPG starter
6'8 F Mackenzie Mgbako - returning 12 PPG starter, Big Ten All-Freshman team last season
7-0 C Oumar Ballo - First Team All Pac-12 and Pac-12 All Defensive Team last season

6'3 G Kanaan Carlyle - 11.5 PPG player at Stanford last season
6'7 G/F Luke Goode - 39.9 % on threes in 20 MPG playing in Big Ten last season
6'6 G Bryson Tucker - Top 30 Recruit in Class of 2024

I could definitely see them being a force even if you're not super high on Woodson.
 
#73      
mysterio2525
One Man Fast Break said:
Indiana has a good roster on paper.

6'9 F Malik Reneau - returning 15 PPG starter
6'2 G Myles Rice - was Pac-12 Freshman of the Year last season
6'5 G Trey Galloway - returning 11 PPG starter
6'8 F Mackenzie Mgbako - returning 12 PPG starter, Big Ten All-Freshman team last season
7-0 C Oumar Ballo - First Team All Pac-12 and Pac-12 All Defensive Team last season

6'3 G Kanaan Carlyle - 11.5 PPG player at Stanford last season
6'7 G/F Luke Goode - 39.9 % on threes in 20 MPG playing in Big Ten last season
6'6 G Bryson Tucker - Top 30 Recruit in Class of 2024

I could definitely see them being a force even if you're not super high on Woodson.
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They have a ton of talent but they can't hit a 3 outside of our beloved luke but I can't imagine he's getting a ton of playing time. The Pack it in strategy without reliable 3 point shooting is literally the opposite of what we do and that's a good thing.
 
#75      
Rusty
RockfordIllini said:
I don’t know. He averaged 12/7.5/6 last year in a complementary role to Edey. Maybe he struggles now that Edey won’t suck up so much attention. But now that it’s “his” team, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he will put up something like 16/9/5 this year. I don’t see any obvious candidates to average 20+ this year, so if Smith puts up that statline he’s at least in the running. It always seems like someone emerges though. Will see who it is. But given a lack of clear alternatives, I understand why Smith is the preseason POY.
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RockfordIllini said:
I don’t know. He averaged 12/7.5/6 last year in a complementary role to Edey. Maybe he struggles now that Edey won’t suck up so much attention. But now that it’s “his” team, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he will put up something like 16/9/5 this year. I don’t see any obvious candidates to average 20+ this year, so if Smith puts up that statline he’s at least in the running. It always seems like someone emerges though. Will see who it is. But given a lack of clear alternatives, I understand why Smith is the preseason POY.
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Maybe I'm missing something but I've always read statlines as Points/Rebounds/Assists. Smith averaged 12 pts 5.8 rebounds and 7.48 assists. Now the 39 games may include pre-season tourneys and NCAA games but considering he already averaged more than McCamey. I think either RockfordIllini posted a wrong prediction or posted it in a different order. Either way, reading is a skill.
 
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