skyIdub
Illini Basketball 2023-2024
- Status
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
@aaeismacgychel it looks like it is possible to move up in the advanced metrics by beating up on 300+ teams. We moved up 0.20 AdjEm in KenPom.
So there could be a few reasons for it. Winning by 30+ does indeed qualify for the blowout diminishing returns and with a projected win by 32, an overall decrease of around 0.15ish would be somewhat expected, all things being equal. 0.20 isn't a big move, though if it was flat and scoring margin was considered past 30, we'd expect around a 0.08-0.10 increase in AdjEM. So it seems evident something additional is contributing to this change. The three things that stand out to me as the most likely factors are:
1. The increased diminishing of preseason projections in the predictive model. As we have greatly outperformed the preseason projections thus far, we would indeed expect to "float" upwards over the course of the next few games as those projections are artificially weighing us down (damping us). This is my best guess for what really is going on here
2. Possible overall increase in our first 11 opponent's metrics. This could cause a slight bump upwards
3. Ken may have made some changes to his formulas over the past 10 years (I can't believe it has been that long...) that either changed the cap where massive diminishing returns takes place, or that he's included a player component to his equations (i.e. TSJ being out making this a more valuable win than it should)
Those are my best guesses, but yes, in general, playing a team rated this low usually leads to a slight dip in AdjEM, not a gain, even in a blowout.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Appreciate your insights, thanks
I didn't read this until a day after the FDU game. It's like almost like you eat dinner with BU or live in his house or something.
The suspension of TJ right before the start of the spring semester, poses a very interesting thought exercise. Could other players be reaching out to us, maybe a high caliber player on a bad team, looking for a team missing a guy like them to put them over the top?
Once the unlimited transfer is in place, is this a possibility? Obviously credits and everything would need to be sufficient. I'd be interested to hear from insiders to see if this is something that is being looked at now or in the future. Would Underwood even want to do this?
Once the unlimited transfer is in place, is this a possibility? Obviously credits and everything would need to be sufficient. I'd be interested to hear from insiders to see if this is something that is being looked at now or in the future. Would Underwood even want to do this?
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
JW said that he's still on scholarship he just can't participate in team activities. We wouldn't have a ride to offer in this case, but I'd imagine in instances when someone is put off the team entirely it'd be possible. I'm not sure what the rules are on when scholarships could be awarded though.
Tacomallini
- Washington State
agree that TSJ's scholarship and Sincere's are taken up, but hasn't there been an open 13th ride all year? BU likes to pick up 2nd semester transfers. Interesting angle if someone would be immediately available to play. I highly doubt that's the plan, and question if it'd be allowed but, transfer rules seem to be increasingly more fluid these days.
A few curious stats so far: Ty has gone from shooting FTs at .387 last year to .647 this year ( pretty incredible IMO.) he also averages 2.5 assists to 1.7 TOs. MD is a .359 3 pt shooter coming into this year, but at .193 this year. Regression to the mean should help him going forward. The Illini have reached the 70% mark on FTs, and that's better than I would have guessed, and it has been rising the past few games. They are also hitting 3s at a 33.3% clip, which is similar to a 50% avg on 2s. Even without TSJ, we still have 3 double digit scorers in MD, QG, and CH (possible for those 3 to increase that.) JMHO, but I still see us as no worse than the 3rd best B1G team, and probably still second. I do not think we will be a bubble team come tourney time. It's hard to quantify just how much the connectivity of this team can elevate their play. And nobody knows, but pending further details, I would not be stunned to see TJ return this year. And yes, I am still wearing the orange glasses I've worn for over 40 years, why wouldn't I?
Not necessarily this year, but future seasons.
Happy New Year! Here’s to winning the Natty in 2024
Best wishes in 2024, ya collection of 
maniacs
maniacs- Status