Bowl Projections

#27      
Bill Hader Snl GIF
 
#32      
Does JMU have a chance if they win out and win the Sun Belt? Just askin.
I think they would have had to go undefeated. They had an impressive win @North Carolina, but I do not think the committee would look kindly to the loss @UL-Monroe. Boise State has the inside track if they win out (especially since they have another high profile opportunity against Oregon State at end of regular season and only loss is by 3 @Oregon, along with a dominating win over Washington State), IMO. I honestly think a 2-loss Boise State team would have a better resume than a 1-loss JMU team.
 
#33      
I think they would have had to go undefeated. They had an impressive win @North Carolina, but I do not think the committee would look kindly to the loss @UL-Monroe. Boise State has the inside track if they win out (especially since they have another high profile opportunity against Oregon State at end of regular season and only loss is by 3 @Oregon, along with a dominating win over Washington State), IMO. I honestly think a 2-loss Boise State team would have a better resume than a 1-loss JMU team.
And a legit Heisman candidate. That won't hurt.
 
#35      
#36      
It's so interesting to see my aspirations ebb and flow as an Illini fan each week, haha. On one hand, yes ... we have sucked forever, and even a 6-win-type bowl is very important for this program. On the other hand ... I'm so damn eager to be legitimately good that when there is even any "on-paper hope" (e.g., being ranked in the top 25 and 5-1), I find it easy to get cautiously greedy.

Even with the Purdue disaster, this is our remaining schedule by current Big Ten standing spot. In order to get some more rankings in there, I separated teams a spot by overall record (e.g., us at #4 and Michigan a spot below because we are 5-1 and they're 4-2).

[Illini are #4 at 5-1, 2-1]

vs. #7 Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
at #1 Oregon (6-0, 3-0)
vs. #10 Minnesota (4-3, 2-2)
vs. #13 Michigan State (3-3, 1-2)
at #12 Rutgers (4-2, 1-2)
vs. #13 Northwestern (3-3, 1-2) at Wrigley

Regardless of past struggles or the jumbled mess that is the Big Ten, I maintain that fewer than 7 wins would be very disappointing at this point. All that requires is that we beat MSU at home and keep our pride in tact by beating Northwestern at Wrigley.

I also think it's reasonable to expect a loss to Oregon (making our literal, absolute ceiling 10-2), and it sounds like folks are pessimistic about Michigan. So, I would consider 9-3 above a huge, historic success.

THUS, I feel like 7-5 is a very realistic goal, and 8-4 still means we are having an epically successful season for this program. That's a surprisingly tight range, but hey ... we're 5-1.
 
#37      
We can beat or lose to any of the teams remaining on our schedule.

In fact, I like our chances more against the "name brand" teams we face. We always seem to play to the level of competition.
 
#39      
Both of the ESPN.com bowl projection writers have us playing in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl against either Virginia Tech or Syracuse.
Tech please. 3.5 hours of trying to figure out who's who on two orange and blue teams is too much.

Not that orange & maroon is much better, but a little.
 
#40      
We can beat or lose to any of the teams remaining on our schedule.

In fact, I like our chances more against the "name brand" teams we face. We always seem to play to the level of competition.
At Oregon does not seem like possible win. I just witnessed Purdue run roughshod over the D, not sure what should make us think Oregon can't do that at will.
 
#42      
At Oregon does not seem like possible win. I just witnessed Purdue run roughshod over the D, not sure what should make us think Oregon can't do that at will.
As much I want to believe we could hang with Oregon, they are much, much, much better and much, much, much faster than Penn State.

Beat Michigan with a last-second field goal, take our lumps in Eugene, and close out the season strong.
 
#45      
Duke's Mayo Bowl Logo

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Jan. 3 •
Charlotte, NC
Virginia Logo

Virginia
Illinois Logo

Illinois
-4.5

Jan. 3 Duke's Mayo team logo
Virginia Tech
vs.
team logo
Illinois
ACC vs. SEC 7:30 p.m. Charlotte

Mayo Bowl

Projection: Illinois vs. Virginia Tech

Guaranteed Rate Bowl​

Thursday, December 26
5:30, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, Big 12
Last Season: Kansas 49, UNLV 36
Bowl Projection: Illinois vs Arizona State

I couldn't get to the other side of the paywall this week, so I got these from Reddit. But it doesn't really make much sense as we show up three times instead of two, so these are the options that were mentioned for us:
TransPerfect Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN): Illinois vs. LSU
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl (New York, NY): Virginia Tech vs. Illinois or Syracuse vs. Illinois

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)​

Tie-In: Big Ten vs. SEC
Projection: Missouri vs. Illinois
 
#46      
...

[Illini are #4 at 5-1, 2-1]

vs. #7 Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
at #1 Oregon (6-0, 3-0)
vs. #10 Minnesota (4-3, 2-2)
vs. #13 Michigan State (3-3, 1-2)
at #12 Rutgers (4-2, 1-2)
vs. #13 Northwestern (3-3, 1-2) at Wrigley

...

I also think it's reasonable to expect a loss to Oregon (making our literal, absolute ceiling 10-2), and it sounds like folks are pessimistic about Michigan. So, I would consider 9-3 above a huge, historic success.
If we do hit our ceiling of 10-2, we would have a 47% chance of making the Playoffs according to this site I just found (98% if we win out). Also, if you click on Illinois, it gives the current chance of finishing in each place in the Big Ten standings. We are most likely to finish 5th with 11% probability. There's a 9% probability of making the conference championship game.
 
#48      
FWIW, there was a Citrus Bowl rep at the game on Saturday. Saw him by the south tunnel before the band came out for pregame taking photos of seemingly anything and everything from the band in the tunnel, to the crowd 25 minutes before kickoff to the canon/bell in the SE corner. I have absolutely no idea what his presence actually means beyond many projections having us there during the back half of September. What I do know is that Reliaquest reps were at a lot of games in 2022.

As for the projections, I think besides the Citrus Bowl, Music City has the most potential as a fun trip for fans, the team, band etc. I know it's similar to Reliaquest in regards to festivities around the game (stuff going on as early as 5 days before rather than the typical 1-2 days for most bowls). The prospect of seeing Bielema getting dumped with mayo if we were to go and win the Mayo Bowl does sound rather entertaining. Personally not looking for the playoffs just because I know the timing of that would be far less fun of a trip than a bowl game, as unimportant as they may be. CFP would be great for the program, but it's not what we need right now nor is it an expectation to really have anyways. I'd go Citrus, Music City, and Duke's Mayo as the top 3 I'd like to see us at, record willing. Reliaquest would be fun again, but I'm not 100% sure if we can go (unsure if we can't go 2 years in a row or 2 bowl trips in a row). Would happily repeat that trip tho.
 
#49      
Personally not looking for the playoffs just because I know the timing of that would be far less fun of a trip than a bowl game, as unimportant as they may be. CFP would be great for the program, but it's not what we need right now nor is it an expectation to really have anyways.
Kobe Bryant What GIF


I would rather have the slimmest chance of winning a championship than a glorified exhibition game where there will be opt outs...but that is just me.
 
Last edited:
#50      
Kobe Bryant What GIF


I would rather have the slimmest chance of winning a championship than a glorified exhibition game where there will be opt outs...but that is just me.
With where the program is at at this point, I'd feel better with the team being in a bowl game (meaningless or not) than potentially getting boat raced in a playoff game.
 
Back