2024-25 College Football Coaching Carousel

#201      
altgeld88
the juiceman cometh said:
Yes, I agree that OSU will always have an inherent advantage given its fanbase, resources, and history. That's why a coach would much rather land there than pretty much any other program in the B1G, which was kind of my point.

I think *right now* Oregon is as solid a program as OSU. Wasn't always so. Likewise, I do think the possibility is there for another program, even Indiana, to get into that top tier. But it would take time, resources, and luck, and I'm not sure any highly successful HC would be able to resist the allure of an established program for long enough to make it happen. IF Cignetti is the real deal and the next Nick Saban, and IF he stays at Indiana, and IF the boosters pump up the football program (likely at the expense of basketball) and make sure he gets what he needs in recruiting, and IF things generally bounce the right way, then it could happen for Indiana. That's a LOT of ifs which illustrates why I think Cignetti pounces on any blue blood or blue blood-adjacent offer he gets.
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I don't disagree with you in either of your posts. Obviously Nike $$ made Oregon football, though it was highly competitive even before Knight ponied up a giant bag. I don't see an end to its ability to reside at the top of the BT for lack of resources.

I'm skeptical that Indiana can sustain that level of funding. Cignetti likely has less than a decade left in coaching. Even if he decides to stay at IU I'm skeptical that it will have sufficient NIL $$ to reload annually. Of course our insiders obviously have a much better idea than most of us here do. Football doesn't matter that much to IU. Making it matter will take a string of outsized success over several seasons at least.
 
#202      
bluemountain
ChiefGritty said:
The idea that OSU could never fail isn't true. There's no magic they have that Texas or Tennessee or USC doesn't.

But like those programs the sheer volume and intensity of their fan support will always give them the ability to push back toward the top.

"Why do blue blood programs stay on top?" is essentially this meme

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if that was the case, South Carolina would be a powerhouse, same with OK State and A&M. There is more to it than fan support and $.
 
#203      
ChiefGritty
bluemountain said:
if that was the case, South Carolina would be a powerhouse, same with OK State and A&M. There is more to it than fan support and $.
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I mean take a look at what's happening at A&M.

Oklahoma State has never had a giant fanbase, they just had one rich guy who died.

South Carolina, fair enough, that's probably the highest ratio of fan support to success in college football. But it's not like it's a Penn State/Nebraska sized fanbase.

altgeld88 said:
Obviously Nike $$ made Oregon football, though it was highly competitive even before Knight ponied up a giant bag.
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Unless you mean literally just 1994 that's not true at all. That season inspired Knight to throw his weight behind the program, but that was their first outright conference title in program history. Rich Brooks was 49-78-2 in 17 years of Pac 10 play heading into that season.
 
#204      
mattcoldagelli
the juiceman cometh said:
I think *right now* Oregon is as solid a program as OSU. Wasn't always so. Likewise, I do think the possibility is there for another program, even Indiana, to get into that top tier. But it would take time, resources, and luck,
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Bold mine because it used to take so. much. time. to improve your college football standing. Think Wisconsin or Oregon building in a (mostly) unbroken direction of progress since the early- to mid-90s to where they are today. This is why I was scoffing at the "should we really be satisfied with 8-4" questions in another thread, because the existing Playbook for Program Building calls for a decade, maybe more, of being very satisfied with 7 and 8 win seasons as you try to climb the ladder.

NIL and the P2 Era changes things for sure, we just don't know how yet.
 
#205      
ChiefGritty
mattcoldagelli said:
Bold mine because it used to take so. much. time. to improve your college football standing. Think Wisconsin or Oregon building in a (mostly) unbroken direction of progress since the early- to mid-90s to where they are today. This is why I was scoffing at the "should we really be satisfied with 8-4" questions in another thread, because the existing Playbook for Program Building calls for a decade, maybe more, of being very satisfied with 7 and 8 win seasons as you try to climb the ladder.

NIL and the P2 Era changes things for sure, we just don't know how yet.
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It might be over-reading a moment in time, but it feels right to say that Oregon is as a matter of fact the only "new money" true elite program in college football.

And to the extent that's true, they feel like the exception that proves the rule, with Nike's influence just kind of being a sui generis benefit that wouldn't be replicable elsewhere (sorry Maryland).

Which circles us back to Cignetti, and even in this moment of flux the idea that Indiana is going to make itself into a durable powerhouse just doesn't pass the straight face test.

Among other reasons, there is not one fanbase in college sports that would steal more resources from their football team to land a basketball recruit than Indiana.
 
#206      
mattcoldagelli
ChiefGritty said:
It might be over-reading a moment in time, but it feels right to say that Oregon is as a matter of fact the only "new money" true elite program in college football.
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I think that's right - I don't even know what the list of other contenders looks like but nearly everyone who you'd think to put on it, even in the "up and coming" category (TCU? Utah? Baylor?) all took the Big XII off-ramp.
 
#207      
ptgrd23
ChiefGritty said:
Among other reasons, there is not one fanbase in college sports that would steal more resources from their football team to land a basketball recruit than Indiana.
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My cousin donates 5 figures annually for his IU basketball seats. He is required to buy football seats as part of package but prior to this year rarely went. Even this year just occasional attendee when he gets invited to president or donor box. Its all about basketball at IU. This is the best IU football season in 60 years. The last played on New Years Day in 1967 (Rose Bowl).
 
#208      
the juiceman cometh
mattcoldagelli said:
I think that's right - I don't even know what the list of other contenders looks like but nearly everyone who you'd think to put on it, even in the "up and coming" category (TCU? Utah? Baylor?) all took the Big XII off-ramp.
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Could see a world where Washington developed into a consistent contender had DeBoer stayed. But his leaving for Bama kind of illustrates why it would be extremely unlikely a program that isn't in that top tier could hold onto coaching talent long enough to get there. It would probably require either a string of unprecedentedly good hiring decisions or a generational coach with some specific reason for wanting to build up that given program (for example if the program is their alma mater).
 
#209      
ChiefGritty
the juiceman cometh said:
Could see a world where Washington developed into a consistent contender had DeBoer stayed. But his leaving for Bama kind of illustrates why it would be extremely unlikely a program that isn't in that top tier could hold onto coaching talent long enough to get there. It would probably require either a string of unprecedentedly good hiring decisions or a generational coach with some specific reason for wanting to build up that given program (for example if the program is their alma mater).
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Well two things

1. Washington is an old money program. They aren't Ohio State, but both as a historical matter and (critically I think) a matter of their fans self-identification, they are not an insurgent fighting against what has been, they see their success as a restoration of normal order. Kalen DeBoer didn't accomplish anything there that Chris Petersen, Don James, Jim Owens, etc hadn't previously.

2. It is almost definitional that you're not an elite program if what you have isn't durable across coaching administrations.
 
#210      
the juiceman cometh
ChiefGritty said:
Well two things

1. Washington is an old money program. They aren't Ohio State, but both as a historical matter and (critically I think) a matter of their fans self-identification, they are not an insurgent fighting against what has been, they see their success as a restoration of normal order. Kalen DeBoer didn't accomplish anything there that Chris Petersen, Don James, Jim Owens, etc hadn't previously.

2. It is almost definitional that you're not an elite program if what you have isn't durable across coaching administrations.
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1. The point isn't that Washington doesn't have historical success. The point is that Washington is not such a program that sustained success is the default. For every Chris Petersen, there's a Ty Willingham. And before Petersen, there was a pretty sustained period that ranged from the mediocre to the outright bad.

Plus if you can't retain your coach when other programs come knocking, you're probably not one of the elite programs.

2. Well yeah. And that's almost impossible to do when you're not already elite. Hiring well takes a lot of luck, and even more so when you're competing against teams higher in the pecking order. So the extremely unlikely ascension to the elite is predicated on getting very lucky with hires for an extended period of time or hiring really well once and lucking into a situation where your coach is not tempted by the "better" opportunities that will come knocking.
 
#211      
MoCoMdIllini
altgeld88 said:
OSU has always been OSU and will always be OSU. The best anyone else is going to do in the BT next to OSU, Michigan, SC and Oregon, is to become Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska or Washington. And even Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Washington are no longer Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Washington, IYKWIM.

And thus ends the most redundant three sentences I'll ever write.
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OSU might argue that those years we beat them 4 or 5 in a row might not count.
 
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