Pregame: Illinois vs Kansas, Saturday, September 7th, 6:00pm CT, FS1

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#129      
cookie86
kirkismyhinrich said:
I can try to answer this, but the honest answer is that we don't really know yet. We had the starters out at halftime against Lindenwood. The two-deep on defense looks like:

LDE: Robinson, Jereme SR, || Wudke, Dylan RS SR
LDT: Withers, DJ RS JR, || Caldwell, Kenean RS JR
RDT: Dunn Jr., Tommy RS JR, || Taylor, Caleb RS JR
RDE: Miller, Dean RS JR, || Warner, DJ FR
WLB: Brown, JB RS JR, || Fletcher, Tristian RS JR
MLB: Wheeler, Cornell RS SR, || Berryhill Jr. Taiwan SR
HAWK: Gilliom, Jayson RS JR, || Raich, Alex RS SR
LCB: Bryant, Jacobee SR, || McGhee, Damarius RS JR
SS: Grant, Marvin RS SR, || Dye, Devin RS JR
FS: Burroughs, O.J. SR, || Dye, Jalen RS JR
RCB: Dotson, Ra'Mello SR, || Todd, Jalen FR

Biggest area of concern is our defensive line vs your offensive line. Your offensive line is big and experienced, and I'm worried about our defensive line being a little undersized against a legit B10 offensive line. Withers (290), Dunn Jr. (310), Caldwell (330), and Taylor (315) will have to play big. I'm interested to see how our DEs and LBs defend the run. We have two freshman on the two-deep, Deshawn Warner and Jalen Todd. And while both of those guys earned their spots, they don't have a ton of experience. Warner is I think the highest-rated recruit we've ever had.

We're strong at corner. Jacobee (Cobee) Bryant is one of three Jayhawks appearing regularly on CFB top 100 player lists (the other two being Jalon Daniels QB and Devin Neal RB). Ra'Mello (Mello) Dotson was a preseason B12 conference player. I feel good about Burroughs and Grant at safety.

If last year's game was a B12 style game, Illinois needs this year's game to be a B10 style game. Run the ball, control tempo, don't turn it over. The more points that are scored, the better chance KU has of winning imo. I have no predictions as to who wins the game. It will be interesting to see which team has success establishing their style of play. I'm guessing it will be a close game with a final score in the high 20s, low 30s.
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You DT’s have good size but your DE is the size of our running backs
 
#132      
Fighter of the Nightman
lstewart53x3 said:
Our big advantage in this game:

It’s Kansas’ first road game of the year. Remember how unbeatable Kansas looked against us last year?

Their next game was their first road game of the year at 2-10 Nevada. They won that game by 7. Two weeks prior Nevada lost by 42 to 8-5 USC.

First road games can be brutal for college football teams.
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While I am indeed optimistic given that it is a night game with good weather, the relatively fantastic student turnout the past 3-4 years and the apparently great ticket sales ... the bolded will only affect the game in a meaningful way if we fans do our part. While travel and not being as comfortable on a field other than your own will always play a role for the visiting team, it is the ATMOSPHERE that can rattle an opponent to get them to truly play worse than they're capable of, IMO. I really hope our crowd isn't just full but also ENERGETIC. Off the top of my head, MSU in 2022 comes to mind as a game where we had a great crowd as far as attendance goes (over 56k, so even the upper decks looked packed) but actually a pretty bad crowd as far as energy. I know some people will say the team didn't give them much to cheer for that game, but this goes back to our chicken-and-the-egg argument we always have on this site ... yes, fans will cheer more enthusiastically for a winning team, but fans who are enthusiastic ALREADY help a team win in the first place. I will never forget Dee Brown saying that there is no way they would have made it out of the Elite Eight in 2005 without the fans ... and we were not just loud once the comeback was in full swing; we NEVER gave up if you go listen to the audio! We willed those boys to victory. And we will need a great effort from the fans on Saturday night to pump up the players even further if we are going to pull off the upset.

Also, semi-OT ... it is kind of interesting to look at the capacity breakdown of Memorial Stadium per Wikipedia. I have VERY rarely seen a game on TV where West Main is not more than 90% full, and usually the rest of the lower bowl seems full. That kind of lines up with what I see here as far as getting to a sellout/a "full"-looking crowd. Also, two key assumptions:

1. I have heard before that about 5,000 seats are "invisible" underneath the East Balcony.
2. Thus, if we assume those are sold last, 55,670 is the crowd necessary for it to LOOK like a sellout.

MEMORIAL STADIUM CAPACITY BY SECTION
(Roughly in order of how I think they would fill up as ticket sales increase)
West Main: 13,000
East Main (Visible): 13,000
North End Zone (Student Section): 5,000
West Balcony: 5,000
Horseshoe: 9,800
East Balcony: 10,000
East Main (Invisible): 5,000

So, while there is a bit of a rounding error (those add up to 60,800 instead of 60,670), this is roughly the accumulative attendance by section and as a percent of that magic 55,670 number for the place to look full ... again, assuming you sell them "in order" for the sake of this exercise:

West Main: 13,000 (23.4%)
East Main (Visible): 26,000 (46.7%)
North End Zone (Student Section): 31,000 (55.7%)
West Balcony: 36,000 (64.7%)
Horseshoe: 45,800 (82.3%)

--- So this is kind of our standard spot where we have sold out the lower bowl, and the stadium will "look over 80% full" ... and that jives with my previous assertion that any crowd under 45k will look pretty embarrassing. Of course, it will not fill in this simply, and the top several rows of the lower bowl sections will be empty at 45k, with a smattering of fans choosing to sit in the East Balcony. ---

East Balcony: 55,800 (100%)

--- So before even touching the seats underneath the East Balcony overhang, you have reached your 55,670 number, and the stadium will look full. I think this is why the DIA reserves those extra 5,000 or so seats to be sold last, as they should! ---

East Main (Invisible): 60,800 (109%) - a true sellout!

TL;DR

While I would love to break our streak of not selling out Memorial Stadium, it appears rather certain that we will cross the 56,000 barrier this Saturday, and Memorial Stadium will appear to be full. Now let's just hope it is also LOUD!!
 
#133      
Illini2010-11
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
This is shaping up to be one of my most difficult ticket tracking/attendance guesses. So many layered assumptions and bits of information to consider. To recap:

1. We expect a good crowd considering a Saturday night game with a 6pm kickoff against a ranked Power 4 opponent. AND Illinois had a strong showing in week 1 that provided no buzzkill heading into week 2.
2. There will be thousands of tickets given away to this game as part of two special events/promotions. Teachers are receiving free tickets and it's the annual high school Band Day where several area HS marching bands are invited to the game (free ticket) and they get to play with the Marching Illini at halftime.
3. The student turnout was reported very strong for EIU and will presumably continue for this game. The main student section was full and even the student overflow section 101 was reportedly "full" per a comment on the Tay and Piper radio show. (The tracking of student tickets is always black box since none of them publicly appear on the tickets site. My tracker always assumes a full main student section and a completely empty section 101 as a baseline. This is being adjusted more aggressively for this week.)
4. The Fighting Illini Football email that went out to season ticket holders claimed "LESS THAN 1,000 KANSAS TICKETS REMAINING." This claim was repeated by Bret Bielema during his press conference today.
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Great analysis as always. Wanted to quickly touch on point 3. I know many of us from the burbs griped about a Thursday night game and making it hard to get down (I know I was unable to make the trip), but from a student perspective (at least when I was a student), a Thursday night game would have been optimal compared to the traditional 11 AM Saturday kickoff. I think the student turnout should be likewise very high for a later Saturday kickoff this week. Go to the game and then have plenty of time to party afterward.

This is probably not the thread for this, but I am so sick and tired of the 11 AM Homecoming games, which will be coming next week. Obviously television has the primary influence on kickoff times, but I fear that student attendance might suffer slightly due to the "early" kickoff. I really would like to see a 2:30 Homecoming game or 6 PM game to really allow the tailgating experience to thrive.
 
#134      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
Great analysis as always. Wanted to quickly touch on point 3. I know many of us from the burbs griped about a Thursday night game and making it hard to get down (I know I was unable to make the trip), but from a student perspective (at least when I was a student), a Thursday night game would have been optimal compared to the traditional 11 AM Saturday kickoff. I think the student turnout should be likewise very high for a later Saturday kickoff this week. Go to the game and then have plenty of time to party afterward.

This is probably not the thread for this, but I am so sick and tired of the 11 AM Homecoming games, which will be coming next week. Obviously television has the primary influence on kickoff times, but I fear that student attendance might suffer slightly due to the "early" kickoff. I really would like to see a 2:30 Homecoming game or 6 PM game to really allow the tailgating experience to thrive.
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I actually always wondered if they purposely "spent" an 11:00 am kickoff on Homecoming because they figured it would draw an inherently larger crowd to begin with and thus still be a net gain for ticket sales? To use a Jimmy Buffett analogy (RIP) from this third generation Parrothead, Jimmy would traditionally play on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. However, Cincinnati and Atlanta (two markets where his story sort of began and have always been huge draws for him) hardly ever got a Saturday or even Thursday show ... because he "spent" his Saturday shows on markets where he might not have sold out the show on a weekday. Meanwhile, Atlanta and Cincinnati were going to have huge crowds no matter what.
 
#137      
Fighter of the Nightman
Just a reminder what a big deal this is, this is just the second time we have hosted a ranked non-conference opponent in Champaign in the last 25+ years! It's a huge chance to get a win that helps elevate the respect the program gets nationally. KU is a bit of a media darling right now, and it would be great to nab that spot from them. ;)

P.S. For those who want a trip down memory lane, such matchups seemed to be much, much more common before 2000!

2024: vs. #19 Kansas
2011: W 17-14 vs. #22 Arizona State
2001: W 34-10 vs. #25 Louisville

1997: L 35-22 vs. #19 Washington State
1996: L 55-3 vs. #19 USC
1995: W 9-7 vs. #17 Arizona
1993: L 16-14 vs. #15 Arizona
1991: W 51-10 vs. #21 Houston
1990: W 23-22 vs. #9 Colorado
1987: L 21-7 vs. #15 Arizona State
1986: L 59-14 vs. #6 Nebraska
1985: L 20-10 vs. #6 USC
1982: L 20-3 vs. #3 Pitt
1979: L 14-6 vs. #11 Missouri
1975: L 30-20 vs. #5 Missouri
 
#139      
SIllini1975
Fighter of the Nightman said:
While I am indeed optimistic given that it is a night game with good weather, the relatively fantastic student turnout the past 3-4 years and the apparently great ticket sales ... the bolded will only affect the game in a meaningful way if we fans do our part. While travel and not being as comfortable on a field other than your own will always play a role for the visiting team, it is the ATMOSPHERE that can rattle an opponent to get them to truly play worse than they're capable of, IMO. I really hope our crowd isn't just full but also ENERGETIC. Off the top of my head, MSU in 2022 comes to mind as a game where we had a great crowd as far as attendance goes (over 56k, so even the upper decks looked packed) but actually a pretty bad crowd as far as energy. I know some people will say the team didn't give them much to cheer for that game, but this goes back to our chicken-and-the-egg argument we always have on this site ... yes, fans will cheer more enthusiastically for a winning team, but fans who are enthusiastic ALREADY help a team win in the first place. I will never forget Dee Brown saying that there is no way they would have made it out of the Elite Eight in 2005 without the fans ... and we were not just loud once the comeback was in full swing; we NEVER gave up if you go listen to the audio! We willed those boys to victory. And we will need a great effort from the fans on Saturday night to pump up the players even further if we are going to pull off the upset.

Also, semi-OT ... it is kind of interesting to look at the capacity breakdown of Memorial Stadium per Wikipedia. I have VERY rarely seen a game on TV where West Main is not more than 90% full, and usually the rest of the lower bowl seems full. That kind of lines up with what I see here as far as getting to a sellout/a "full"-looking crowd. Also, two key assumptions:

1. I have heard before that about 5,000 seats are "invisible" underneath the East Balcony.
2. Thus, if we assume those are sold last, 55,670 is the crowd necessary for it to LOOK like a sellout.

MEMORIAL STADIUM CAPACITY BY SECTION
(Roughly in order of how I think they would fill up as ticket sales increase)
West Main: 13,000
East Main (Visible): 13,000
North End Zone (Student Section): 5,000
West Balcony: 5,000
Horseshoe: 9,800
East Balcony: 10,000
East Main (Invisible): 5,000

So, while there is a bit of a rounding error (those add up to 60,800 instead of 60,670), this is roughly the accumulative attendance by section and as a percent of that magic 55,670 number for the place to look full ... again, assuming you sell them "in order" for the sake of this exercise:

West Main: 13,000 (23.4%)
East Main (Visible): 26,000 (46.7%)
North End Zone (Student Section): 31,000 (55.7%)
West Balcony: 36,000 (64.7%)
Horseshoe: 45,800 (82.3%)

--- So this is kind of our standard spot where we have sold out the lower bowl, and the stadium will "look over 80% full" ... and that jives with my previous assertion that any crowd under 45k will look pretty embarrassing. Of course, it will not fill in this simply, and the top several rows of the lower bowl sections will be empty at 45k, with a smattering of fans choosing to sit in the East Balcony. ---

East Balcony: 55,800 (100%)

--- So before even touching the seats underneath the East Balcony overhang, you have reached your 55,670 number, and the stadium will look full. I think this is why the DIA reserves those extra 5,000 or so seats to be sold last, as they should! ---

East Main (Invisible): 60,800 (109%) - a true sellout!

TL;DR

While I would love to break our streak of not selling out Memorial Stadium, it appears rather certain that we will cross the 56,000 barrier this Saturday, and Memorial Stadium will appear to be full. Now let's just hope it is also LOUD!!
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Part of the problem with crowd energy at that MSU game was the terrible wind. My group was exhausted before the game began from fighting 40mph gusts all day.
 
#140      
Mr. Tibbs

Illinois opens as underdog for huge showdown with Kansas​

Story by Stephen Cohn, SB Nation

According to DraftKings, the Jayhawks are favored by 5.5 points, while it’s as high as 6 points on ESPN BET.

I think we can expect that to move by a point or two in favor of Illinois as we move toward Saturday, mostly because there should be a lot of bettors who were impressed by the Illini’s shutout win over EIU last week.


I do think the line will move to 4 by game time.
 
#141      
Fighter of the Nightman
SIllini1975 said:
Part of the problem with crowd energy at that MSU game was the terrible wind. My group was exhausted before the game began from fighting 40mph gusts all day.
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That's fair, and I have heard that, as well. However, I would argue our crowds of over 50k last year (e.g., vs. Wisconsin and vs. Indiana) were quieter than some clips you can find on YouTube with lower attendances from past seasons. I think we hit rock bottom crowd-wise in the late Lovie Era, and we are still working our way back. While the butts in the seats situation has improved A LOT, I'm sure many of those new fans are not ready to contract full-on Illini Fever quite yet, haha.

Maybe Saturday is the day that changes! When you consider ALL factors that could influence a game's atmosphere like opponent, game time, weather, general buzz, prior week's result, etc ... this feels like possibly the most hyped home game we have had in several years. Some contenders and why KU seems like a bigger deal:

2023 vs. #7 Penn State - While it was a primetime game on FOX, Big Noon Kickoff had just ditched us for Boulder again after we were blown out at KU the week before ... and weren't even above 50k in ticket sales
2022 vs. Minnesota - Again, fan enthusiasm among us DIEHARDS was certainly through the roof after beating Iowa, but we were well below 50k in ticket sales still.
2022 vs. Michigan State - While ticket sales were high, I think a lot of fans expected a win after just pummeling Nebraska in Lincoln. It didn't really have that "buzz" feel.
2022 vs. Purdue - While we still had a chance to clinch the Big Ten West with a win, ticket sales plummeted after the disappointing loss to MSU, and it was COLD (I was there).
2021 vs. Nebraska - A decent amount of hype for it being Bielema's first game, but again ... that was mostly among us diehards, because attendance was below 42k even with a good Nebraska contingent. It was cool to be the first game with fans at full capacity in like two years, though!

--- Pretty much nothing from 2017 to 2020 even kind of qualifies ---

2016 vs. North Carolina - While this was indeed our last sellout and I certainly remember some real hype around the Lovie hire, it is difficult for me to remember how good we realistically thought we could be. I do not remember people thinking we could go bowling, but I could be wrong.

--- Little else from the Beckman Era seems a likely candidate ---

2011 vs. #22 Arizona State - This upcoming KU game is very likely the most hyped home game since this game vs. ASU in 2011. The only thing better?? This game had an attendance of only 50,843, and reports are that we will easily surpass that for KU. Let's hope 2024 vs. Kansas has a similar outcome to this great win!
 
#142      
Glaurung44
DeonThomas said:
Regarding the KU returning experience......The Kansas radio play-by-play guy is Brian Hanni. He mentioned to Loren/Steve that KU has ~30 returning seniors, plus a ton of incoming transfers. He did not translate that experience into returning "on-the-field production."

This is a really tough game to prognosticate. Speed/quickness was the #1 difference maker last year in Lawrence. We got manhandled. I agree with an earlier poster --- I'd like to see a Virginia type of turnaround year 2 vs year 1.
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It's misleading.

KU has less returning experience, because Jalon Daniels missed 9 games. KU returns all of their receiving production, all of their RB production, and only about 25% of their passing production. But that's because their backup played all year. Jalon Daniels was named starter for a reason. He's better. And another way to look at it...KU returns all of their offensive production from the game against Illinois last year.

Defensively I think they return 8 starters and most of the 2nd team. Plus transfers. KU returns a lot.
 
#143      
SIllini1975
Fighter of the Nightman said:
That's fair, and I have heard that, as well. However, I would argue our crowds of over 50k last year (e.g., vs. Wisconsin and vs. Indiana) were quieter than some clips you can find on YouTube with lower attendances from past seasons. I think we hit rock bottom crowd-wise in the late Lovie Era, and we are still working our way back. While the butts in the seats situation has improved A LOT, I'm sure many of those new fans are not ready to contract full-on Illini Fever quite yet, haha.

Maybe Saturday is the day that changes! When you consider ALL factors that could influence a game's atmosphere like opponent, game time, weather, general buzz, prior week's result, etc ... this feels like possibly the most hyped home game we have had in several years. Some contenders and why KU seems like a bigger deal:

2023 vs. #7 Penn State - While it was a primetime game on FOX, Big Noon Kickoff had just ditched us for Boulder again after we were blown out at KU the week before ... and weren't even above 50k in ticket sales
2022 vs. Minnesota - Again, fan enthusiasm among us DIEHARDS was certainly through the roof after beating Iowa, but we were well below 50k in ticket sales still.
2022 vs. Michigan State - While ticket sales were high, I think a lot of fans expected a win after just pummeling Nebraska in Lincoln. It didn't really have that "buzz" feel.
2022 vs. Purdue - While we still had a chance to clinch the Big Ten West with a win, ticket sales plummeted after the disappointing loss to MSU, and it was COLD (I was there).
2021 vs. Nebraska - A decent amount of hype for it being Bielema's first game, but again ... that was mostly among us diehards, because attendance was below 42k even with a good Nebraska contingent. It was cool to be the first game with fans at full capacity in like two years, though!

--- Pretty much nothing from 2017 to 2020 even kind of qualifies ---

2016 vs. North Carolina - While this was indeed our last sellout and I certainly remember some real hype around the Lovie hire, it is difficult for me to remember how good we realistically thought we could be. I do not remember people thinking we could go bowling, but I could be wrong.

--- Little else from the Beckman Era seems a likely candidate ---

2011 vs. #22 Arizona State - This upcoming KU game is very likely the most hyped home game since this game vs. ASU in 2011. The only thing better?? This game had an attendance of only 50,843, and reports are that we will easily surpass that for KU. Let's hope 2024 vs. Kansas has a similar outcome to this great win!
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All fair points. For what it’s worth I thought the energy, if not the noise, was different Thursday night. It’s hard to put my finger on but it just seemed more joyful for lack of a better word. It was a smaller crowd but for the first time I can remember I didn’t hear much of the low grumbling I’ve heard even during wins in the past. I’m hopeful we are turning a corner.
 
#144      
Illini2010-11
Glaurung44 said:
It's misleading.

KU has less returning experience, because Jalon Daniels missed 9 games. KU returns all of their receiving production, all of their RB production, and only about 25% of their passing production. But that's because their backup played all year. Jalon Daniels was named starter for a reason. He's better. And another way to look at it...KU returns all of their offensive production from the game against Illinois last year.

Defensively I think they return 8 starters and most of the 2nd team. Plus transfers. KU returns a lot.
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And this is misleading as well.

Some of this is very well true, but as we know, a lot comes down to the offensive line vs defensive line. I thought I saw that the offensive line for KU is revamped quite a bit with some newcomers. I think it is a very large stretch to say that KU returns all of the offensive production from last year's game, when the offensive line is not the same as last year.

Either way, I expect a very good, close game.
 
#145      
Mr. Tibbs
Illini2010-11 said:
And this is misleading as well.

Some of this is very well true, but as we know, a lot comes down to the offensive line vs defensive line. I thought I saw that the offensive line for KU is revamped quite a bit with some newcomers. I think it is a very large stretch to say that KU returns all of the offensive production from last year's game, when the offensive line is not the same as last year.

Either way, I expect a very good, close game.
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I’ll be very surprised if either team wins by more than 7
 
#147      
battle
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I actually always wondered if they purposely "spent" an 11:00 am kickoff on Homecoming because they figured it would draw an inherently larger crowd to begin with and thus still be a net gain for ticket sales? To use a Jimmy Buffett analogy (RIP) from this third generation Parrothead, Jimmy would traditionally play on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. However, Cincinnati and Atlanta (two markets where his story sort of began and have always been huge draws for him) hardly ever got a Saturday or even Thursday show ... because he "spent" his Saturday shows on markets where he might not have sold out the show on a weekday. Meanwhile, Atlanta and Cincinnati were going to have huge crowds no matter what.
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I can vouch that Buffett seemed to have the whole city of Cincy lined up
 
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