There's some evidence that grades are more heavily influenced by the school a recruit commits to rather than some objective measure of the recruit's talent or abilities. If so, that's a perfect example of the tail wagging the dog.
Either that or a remarkable indictment of the rating services
Good examples. Beason is another exhibit
Well, Illinois is 63rd.
Larry Boyd washed out as well.
Look at Wisconsin’s recruiting rankings while Bielema was there, compared to their competitive results. They enjoyed great success by recruiting players that fit their particular system.
Keep the Central IL kids home!
, 3 4's) - 4th in B1G's) - 5th in B1G's) - 5th in B1G's) - 5th in B1G's) - 4th in B1G 's) - 12th in B1G (out of 14)'s) - 15th in B1G (out of 18)Very thoughtful analysis, but I don't like the result so I choose to believe recruiting ratings are randomly assigned numbersWe've talked about this before but happy to provide context again.
Bielema's Recruiting Rankings at Wisconsin (all rankings at Rivals because 247 didn't maintain their Scout.com rankings) - This was peak Wisconsin where they lost no one to transfer and often brought in smaller recruiting classes because of no roster attrition. Therefore I provided their ranking based on recruit ranking average instead of total points.
2006 - hired at Wisconsin, inherited class
2007 - 23rd overall (1 5
2008 - 38th overall (3 4
2009 - 30th overall (3 4
2010 - 48th overall - 7th in B1G
2011 - 30th overall (4 4
2012 - 28th overall (4 4
Bielema's Recruiting Rankings at Illinois. To be fair, I also did recruit ranking average instead of total points.
2021 - hired at Illinois, inherited class
2022 - 50th overall, 14th in B1G (out of 14)
2023 - 49th overall (3 4
2024 - 45th overall (2 4
2025 - 65th overall, 15th in B1G (out of 18)
A few (conflicting) narratives to reach from this:
(1) Bielema and his staff are squeezing every last drop from their recruited talent in a way that only a couple other P4 coaches (Whittingham, Ferentz, Doeren) can emulate.
(2) The transfer class' have been huge and (still) aren't being properly evaluated by recruiting services or roster talent metrics. Offensive tackle transfers that are starter-worthy are both really hard to find and are really expensive (NIL) to acquire. Illinois got not one but two in the past class. If things hold, it's extremely likely that Illinois got a top-3 transfer class this past year.
(3) The recruiting success at Illinois is not close to what Bielema achieved at Wisconsin and we need to stop pointing to that past success and saying the same thing is happening at Illinois. I've already talked about how I believe Illinois' 2024 class is pretty underrated
(4) We can talk about the success of x, y, and z recruit after they get into the system but we can't ignore that players like Stubbs, Starr, Marshall, Landon Brooks, Chandler, Burgess, Gautcher, Bass, etc. that are obviously plan A recruits for the staff and end up elsewhere. The staff might do well with the Plan B recruits they acquire, but they are signaling that there is recruiting talent they prefer but are losing them to other programs. Until that hit rate improves, or the NIL resources increase substantially, these successful seasons are still going to be difficult to consistently replicate.
(5) The above points are data and shape my view of the program from a long-term lens. I am still over the moon that the team is 4-0 and looks light years better than things looked for most of the 21st century.
Thanks, mhuml32 for putting this together...great information.We've talked about this before but happy to provide context again.
Bielema's Recruiting Rankings at Wisconsin (all rankings at Rivals because 247 didn't maintain their Scout.com rankings) - This was peak Wisconsin where they lost no one to transfer and often brought in smaller recruiting classes because of no roster attrition. Therefore I provided their ranking based on recruit ranking average instead of total points.
2006 - hired at Wisconsin, inherited class
2007 - 23rd overall (1 5
2008 - 38th overall (3 4
2009 - 30th overall (3 4
2010 - 48th overall - 7th in B1G
2011 - 30th overall (4 4
2012 - 28th overall (4 4
Bielema's Recruiting Rankings at Illinois. To be fair, I also did recruit ranking average instead of total points.
2021 - hired at Illinois, inherited class
2022 - 50th overall, 14th in B1G (out of 14)
2023 - 49th overall (3 4
2024 - 45th overall (2 4
2025 - 65th overall, 15th in B1G (out of 18)
A few (conflicting) narratives to reach from this:
(1) Bielema and his staff are squeezing every last drop from their recruited talent in a way that only a couple other P4 coaches (Whittingham, Ferentz, Doeren) can emulate.
(2) The transfer class' have been huge and (still) aren't being properly evaluated by recruiting services or roster talent metrics. Offensive tackle transfers that are starter-worthy are both really hard to find and are really expensive (NIL) to acquire. Illinois got not one but two in the past class. If things hold, it's extremely likely that Illinois got a top-3 transfer class this past year.
(3) The recruiting success at Illinois is not close to what Bielema achieved at Wisconsin and we need to stop pointing to that past success and saying the same thing is happening at Illinois. I've already talked about how I believe Illinois' 2024 class is pretty underrated
(4) We can talk about the success of x, y, and z recruit after they get into the system but we can't ignore that players like Stubbs, Starr, Marshall, Landon Brooks, Chandler, Burgess, Gautcher, Bass, etc. that are obviously plan A recruits for the staff and end up elsewhere. The staff might do well with the Plan B recruits they acquire, but they are signaling that there is recruiting talent they prefer but are losing them to other programs. Until that hit rate improves, or the NIL resources increase substantially, these successful seasons are still going to be difficult to consistently replicate.
(5) The above points are data and shape my view of the program from a long-term lens. I am still over the moon that the team is 4-0 and looks light years better than things looked for most of the 21st century.
I don't think it's a matter of fair, it is what it is. He recruited better at Wisconsin than he has so far at Illinois. I think a big takeaway from mhuml's post is a counterpoint to the common notion of "bret didn't recruit at a high level at Wisconsin and had conference championships". His recruiting there was good and that's what we should strive for
