Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
#1      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
2021 Illini Football Commits

1) QB Samari Collier (December 7th, 2019)
2) DB Prince Green (May 3rd, 2020)
3) DL Sedarius McConnell (May 20th, 2020)
4) CB Daniel Edwards (May 21st, 2020)
5) OL Brody Wisecarver (May 23rd, 2020)
6) WR Patrick Bryant (June 14th, 2020)
7) LB Dylan Rosiek (June 17th, 2020)
8) DB DD Snyder (July 6th, 2020)
9) ATH Kalen Villanueva (July 8th, 2020)
10) OL Josh Kreutz (July 9th, 2020)
11) CB Tyler Strain (July 24th, 2020)
12) OL Zachary Barlev (July 24th, 2020)
13) OL Josh Gesky (August 9th, 2020)
14) WR Chevy Brenson (August 10th, 2020)
 
Last edited:
#2      
Positive illini fan
I had some people PM me and ask for the data regarding when Lovie took over and where we sit now. I found it interesting how dramatically on paper our defense has improved.
2020-07-01 (3).png
2020-07-01 (2).png
 
#3      
mhuml32
Positive illini fan said:
I had some people PM me and ask for the data regarding when Lovie took over and where we sit now. I found it interesting how dramatically on paper our defense has improved.
View attachment 6156 View attachment 6155
Click to expand...

A few things to mention, since this has been shared a few times before.

  1. All of the ratings for transfers are their original ratings and not the new ratings provided by 247. This means that Smith, Jones, Hightower, Petitbon, Ford, and Betiku are all rated too high.
  2. This is something I've mentioned before but is worth mentioning again: 247 ratings have experienced inflation over the years and it's not accurate to compare 247 rankings of the 2016 roster to the 2020 (or 2021) roster and simply say things are so much better. For example, the 2016 roster has Darius Mosely. He has a 87.02 rating and was the 476th ranked prospect in his class. Guess the rating for the 476th ranked prospect in the 2019 class? It's 88.30. You can look at Chunky Clements and see a similar inflation from his 2013 ranking to the 2019 class. Taking the score differential between Mosely and the 2019 ratings and applying it to the entire 2016 defense raises them from 82.49 to 83.70. Offense would go from 83.55 to 84.78.
  3. I would be cautious looking too much at incremental differences between classes because of the (obvious) variance between recruiting rankings and player performance (plus the decisions on who starts). The poster has Cooper in the top rotation (starting lineup?) over some other, lesser-ranked players already on the roster (Ezekiel Holmes). What if Carter, Joseph, or Watt recover from their injuries and break through the starting lineup? That isn't necessarily a bad thing but this rating comparison could show a dip, implying that things have regressed

Lovie has undoubtedly improved the roster. I do think this provides a snapshot of these roster improvements. A resource that provides a robust overview is 247's Team Talent Composite, which provides a roster rating based on every recruit on the roster.

2015 - 60th overall (13th in B1G)
2016 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2017 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2018 - 61st overall (12th in B1G)
2019 - 37th overall (8th in B1G)
 
#4      
Positive illini fan
mhuml32 said:
A few things to mention, since this has been shared a few times before.

  1. All of the ratings for transfers are their original ratings and not the new ratings provided by 247. This means that Smith, Jones, Hightower, Petitbon, Ford, and Betiku are all rated too high.
  2. This is something I've mentioned before but is worth mentioning again: 247 ratings have experienced inflation over the years and it's not accurate to compare 247 rankings of the 2016 roster to the 2020 (or 2021) roster and simply say things are so much better. For example, the 2016 roster has Darius Mosely. He has a 87.02 rating and was the 476th ranked prospect in his class. Guess the rating for the 476th ranked prospect in the 2019 class? It's 88.30. You can look at Chunky Clements and see a similar inflation from his 2013 ranking to the 2019 class. Taking the score differential between Mosely and the 2019 ratings and applying it to the entire 2016 defense raises them from 82.49 to 83.70. Offense would go from 83.55 to 84.78.
  3. I would be cautious looking too much at incremental differences between classes because of the (obvious) variance between recruiting rankings and player performance (plus the decisions on who starts). The poster has Cooper in the top rotation (starting lineup?) over some other, lesser-ranked players already on the roster (Ezekiel Holmes). What if Carter, Joseph, or Watt recover from their injuries and break through the starting lineup? That isn't necessarily a bad thing but this rating comparison could show a dip, implying that things have regressed

Lovie has undoubtedly improved the roster. I do think this provides a snapshot of these roster improvements. A resource that provides a robust overview is 247's Team Talent Composite, which provides a roster rating based on every recruit on the roster.

2015 - 60th overall (13th in B1G)
2016 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2017 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2018 - 61st overall (12th in B1G)
2019 - 37th overall (8th in B1G)
Click to expand...
Actually no they are not their original ratings. Any player that was re-rated as a transfer (Jones, Hightower, jersaty) was reflected as such. I can’t change to a new rating if they were not given one. I agree there have definitely been rating inflations. But I still think this shows how far we have come since lovie took over. And I hope I am wrong and other guys crack the rotation. Would be great for the Illini!
 
Last edited:
#5      
Deleted member 654622
mhuml32 said:
A few things to mention, since this has been shared a few times before.

  1. All of the ratings for transfers are their original ratings and not the new ratings provided by 247. This means that Smith, Jones, Hightower, Petitbon, Ford, and Betiku are all rated too high.
  2. This is something I've mentioned before but is worth mentioning again: 247 ratings have experienced inflation over the years and it's not accurate to compare 247 rankings of the 2016 roster to the 2020 (or 2021) roster and simply say things are so much better. For example, the 2016 roster has Darius Mosely. He has a 87.02 rating and was the 476th ranked prospect in his class. Guess the rating for the 476th ranked prospect in the 2019 class? It's 88.30. You can look at Chunky Clements and see a similar inflation from his 2013 ranking to the 2019 class. Taking the score differential between Mosely and the 2019 ratings and applying it to the entire 2016 defense raises them from 82.49 to 83.70. Offense would go from 83.55 to 84.78.
  3. I would be cautious looking too much at incremental differences between classes because of the (obvious) variance between recruiting rankings and player performance (plus the decisions on who starts). The poster has Cooper in the top rotation (starting lineup?) over some other, lesser-ranked players already on the roster (Ezekiel Holmes). What if Carter, Joseph, or Watt recover from their injuries and break through the starting lineup? That isn't necessarily a bad thing but this rating comparison could show a dip, implying that things have regressed

Lovie has undoubtedly improved the roster. I do think this provides a snapshot of these roster improvements. A resource that provides a robust overview is 247's Team Talent Composite, which provides a roster rating based on every recruit on the roster.

2015 - 60th overall (13th in B1G)
2016 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2017 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2018 - 61st overall (12th in B1G)
2019 - 37th overall (8th in B1G)
Click to expand...
1. All rated too high? Are they though? Why is Ford not worth what he was coming out of high school because he spent one year with an elite program? Sure Petitbon isn't going to the league like his HS ranking suggest, but he was a very solid starter, Behbe had quite a few TDs.... The transfers didn't exactly crap the bed and underplay those numbers
2. Why does 247 evaluations have to be inflated? Could it be that with all the specific focus and training techniques, high school athletes are a step above where they were 5 years ago? That means the average 456th player coming out is still the 456th, he is just better than that slot 4 years ago. Which makes a lot of sense
3. Sure
 
#6      
Deleted member 746648
Dude said:
1. All rated too high? Are they though? Why is Ford not worth what he was coming out of high school because he spent one year with an elite program? Sure Petitbon isn't going to the league like his HS ranking suggest, but he was a very solid starter, Behbe had quite a few TDs.... The transfers didn't exactly crap the bed and underplay those numbers
2. Why does 247 evaluations have to be inflated? Could it be that with all the specific focus and training techniques, high school athletes are a step above where they were 5 years ago? That means the average 456th player coming out is still the 456th, he is just better than that slot 4 years ago. Which makes a lot of sense
3. Sure
Click to expand...
Considering the massive decline in football participation over the last decade I'm not sure if the 456th player now is better than 5 years ago. Its unclear when that will start trickling up to p5 football if it hasn't already.

All points being made are good. Our defense has clearly improved and the recruiting ratings reflect that but there is clear rating inflation that does not allow for comparison across seasons. An interesting analysis would be to compare the rest of the big ten west across those seasons to see how our improvement measures up.
 
#7      
pvaughn8
Dude said:
1. All rated too high? Are they though? Why is Ford not worth what he was coming out of high school because he spent one year with an elite program? Sure Petitbon isn't going to the league like his HS ranking suggest, but he was a very solid starter, Behbe had quite a few TDs.... The transfers didn't exactly crap the bed and underplay those numbers
2. Why does 247 evaluations have to be inflated? Could it be that with all the specific focus and training techniques, high school athletes are a step above where they were 5 years ago? That means the average 456th player coming out is still the 456th, he is just better than that slot 4 years ago. Which makes a lot of sense
3. Sure
Click to expand...
Yeah it's unfair to throw Ford into that group. I would say Trevon Sidney and Betiku didn't live up to the HS ranking. That does inflate the overall team average. But at the same time you have Weatherspoon in there with a 75 which is probably the furthest departure from actual value imo and brings the average down.

I agree with the overall sentiment that comparing to past years' Illinois teams is not the best measuring stick. It is a cool table and I'm glad things aren't trending in the other direction.
 
#8      
mhuml32
Positive illini fan said:
Actually no they are not their original ratings. Any player that was re-rated as a transfer (Jones, Hightower, jersaty) was reflected as such. I can’t change to a new rating if they were not given one. I agree there have definitely been rating inflations. But I still think this shows how far we have come since lovie took over. And I hope I am wrong and other guys crack the rotation. Would be great for the Illini!
Click to expand...


I jumped the gun after checking a few of them and assuming any re-ranked transfer was incorrect, but yes there are multiple ones you have listed at their original HS ratings:

  • Hightower was .9366 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8500 as a transfer (you have him as .88)
  • TreSean Smith was .8613 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8400 as a transfer (you have him at .8613)
  • Derrick Smith was .8472 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8000 as a transfer (you have him at .8472)
  • Ford was .9753 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .9300 as a transfer (you have him at .9753)
  • Petitbon was .9696 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8500 as a transfer (you have him at .9696)
  • Betiku was .9884 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8700 as a transfer (you have him at .9884)
 
#9      
mhuml32
pvaughn8 said:
Yeah it's unfair to throw Ford into that group. I would say Trevon Sidney and Betiku didn't live up to the HS ranking. That does inflate the overall team average. But at the same time you have Weatherspoon in there with a 75 which is probably the furthest departure from actual value imo and brings the average down.

I agree with the overall sentiment that comparing to past years' Illinois teams is not the best measuring stick. It is a cool table and I'm glad things aren't trending in the other direction.
Click to expand...


Yes, having Jake Hansen and his poor rating is much preferred over a higher rated backup. Recruit ratings are best for assessing their likelihood of being a successful player entering into college, but after that it's much more of a crapshoot and shouldn't be a factor in playing time.
 
#10      
Positive illini fan
mhuml32 said:
I jumped the gun after checking a few of them and assuming any re-ranked transfer was incorrect, but yes there are multiple ones you have listed at their original HS ratings:

  • Hightower was .9366 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8500 as a transfer (you have him as .88)
  • TreSean Smith was .8613 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8400 as a transfer (you have him at .8613)
  • Derrick Smith was .8472 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8000 as a transfer (you have him at .8472)
  • Ford was .9753 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .9300 as a transfer (you have him at .9753)
  • Petitbon was .9696 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8500 as a transfer (you have him at .9696)
  • Betiku was .9884 as a HS recruit, re-ranked at .8700 as a transfer (you have him at .9884)
Click to expand...
I made the table a while ago and some of those guys I must have missed their re rankings. I will change it to the ones you provided. Thanks for brining it to my attention!
 
#11      
ILL_INI
Positive illini fan said:
Actually no they are not their original ratings. Any player that was re-rated as a transfer (Jones, Hightower, jersaty) was reflected as such. I can’t change to a new rating if they were not given one. I agree there have definitely been rating inflations. But I still think this shows how far we have come since lovie took over. And I hope I am wrong and other guys crack the rotation. Would be great for the Illini!
Click to expand...
I believe @mhuml32 is referring to the transfer ratings 24/7 gives. For instance, for the 2019 class, Luke Ford would be 0.9300 (T) instead of 0.9753 (HS),
Oluwole Betiku Jr. would be 0.8700 (T) instead of 0.9884 (HS) and Richie Petitbon would be 0.8500 (T) instead of 0.9696 (HS). For the 2020 class, TreSean Smith should be 0.8400 (T) instead of 0.8613 (HS), Brian Hightower should be 0.8500 (T) instead of 0.8800 (I'm not sure where that number came from because his high school rating was 0.9366). It seems disingenuous that you selected the transfer ratings for Brevyn Jones and Blake Jeresaty since they were rated higher, but you didn't for the others where the ratings went lower.

I agree with @mhuml32's other point about looking at the whole class instead of picking a partial two deep. You kept at least two of Beckman's higher rated recruits out by doing this (Vaughn and Dre Brown), and based on your selective use of the transfer ratings, I suspect this was deliberate. In fact, you do include Brown in 2019 where you can say, "Look what Lovie did!"

The ironic part of these ratings mhuml32 posted is that I don't believe they take into account the transfer ratings.
mhuml32 said:
Lovie has undoubtedly improved the roster. I do think this provides a snapshot of these roster improvements. A resource that provides a robust overview is 247's Team Talent Composite, which provides a roster rating based on every recruit on the roster.

2015 - 60th overall (13th in B1G)
2016 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2017 - 64th overall (13th in B1G)
2018 - 61st overall (12th in B1G)
2019 - 37th overall (8th in B1G)
Click to expand...

I agree that Lovie has improved the roster, but as shown here, so has everyone else in the conference.

Edit: I guess I'm a little late to the party for some of this.
 
Last edited:
#12      
ILL_INI
Positive illini fan said:
I had some people PM me and ask for the data regarding when Lovie took over and where we sit now. I found it interesting how dramatically on paper our defense has improved.
View attachment 6156 View attachment 6155
Click to expand...
One other thing I noticed is that you bumped Navarro from 70 in 2019 and 2020 to 75 in 2021. Deliberate? In a way, it is unfair to rate Navarro and Witherspoon so low. They weren't rated at all, which doesn't necessarily mean they should be that low.
 
#13      
Positive illini fan
ILL_INI said:
I believe @mhuml32 is referring to the transfer ratings 24/7 gives. For instance, for the 2019 class, Luke Ford would be 0.9300 (T) instead of 0.9753 (HS),
Oluwole Betiku Jr. would be 0.8700 (T) instead of 0.9884 (HS) and Richie Petitbon would be 0.8500 (T) instead of 0.9696 (HS). For the 2020 class, TreSean Smith should be 0.8400 (T) instead of 0.8613 (HS), Brian Hightower should be 0.8500 (T) instead of 0.8800 (I'm not sure where that number came from because his high school rating was 0.9366). It seems disingenuous that you selected the transfer ratings for Brevyn Jones and Blake Jeresaty since they were rated higher, but you didn't for the others where the ratings went lower.

I agree with @mhuml32's other point about looking at the whole class instead of picking a partial two deep. You kept at least two of Beckman's higher rated recruits out by doing this (Vaughn and Dre Brown), and based on your selective use of the transfer ratings, I suspect this was deliberate. In fact, you do include Brown in 2019 where you can say, "Look what Lovie did!"

The ironic part of these ratings mhuml32 posted is that I don't believe they take into account the transfer ratings.


I agree that Lovie has improved the roster, but as shown here, so has everyone else in the conference.

Edit: I guess I'm a little late to the party for some of this.
Click to expand...
No actually the reason brown and Vaughn weren't included is that they weren't in the top 2 for production. I simply went off the production for offensive players. Vaughn and Brown simply weren't top 2 running backs in either 2016 or 2017. And then brown didn't become top two in rushing until 2019 (when he was included). And yes i agree it's tough but i had to give a baseline to those without rankings (zach grant, witherspoon, navarro). And of course i will gladly change the transfers to the rankings you provided, i must have missed some of those guys being re-ranked. I went with a 75 for non-ranked because if i went any higher i would have some people on here claiming i'm inflating the rankings to make it look better.
 
Last edited:
#14      
ILL_INI
Positive illini fan said:
No actually the reason brown and Vaughn weren't included is that they weren't in the top 2 for production. I simply went off the production for offensive players. Vaughn and Brown simply weren't top 2 running backs in either 2016 or 2017. And then brown didn't become top two in rushing until 2019 (when he was included). And yes i agree it's tough but i had to give a baseline to those without rankings (zach grant, witherspoon, navarro). And of course i will gladly change the transfers to the rankings you provided, i must have missed some of those guys being re-ranked. I went with a 75 for non-ranked because if i went any higher i would have some people on here claiming i'm inflating the rankings to make it look better.
Click to expand...
But if you are going by production, why do you include anyone from 2020 and 2021 and compare them to 2016?

24/7 doesn't include unranked players in the averages, so I don't know why you don't do the same. It would slightly help Lovie's numbers.
 
#17      
suburbanILLINI
Positive illini fan said:
So not to get anyone's hopes up but rumor going around is that markiese Irving isn't out of the picture. Minnesota has had 4 de-commits already including two - 4* level players in the last 30 days. They have fallen to 6th in the big ten and 17th nationally down from 7th a couple weeks ago.
Click to expand...
That would be an excellent turn of events. I'm curious as to what would cause Minny to lose its luster.
 
#20      
Positive illini fan
suburbanILLINI said:
That would be an excellent turn of events. I'm curious as to what would cause Minny to lose its luster.
Click to expand...
I call it the cocaine approach. They push really hard/fast and PJ’s energy resonates with kids. They also tell kids that the offer won’t be around forever. And then once a kid starts to come down off the high they start to question the decision and decommit. He’s had 40 decommits since 2017.
 
#25      
Positive illini fan
So just some numbers for us all to pay attention to. We currently have 61 scholarships accounted for next year (51 players on scholarship + 10 commits.) Leaving us with 24 scholarships available. We are only allowed a 25 man class, but with some early enrollments (to make those kids turn into 2020 recruits) we could take a possible 28 man class. 28-(10 commits)= 18 possible more HS/juco commits. 24-18= 6 scholarships left over for transfers. We currently sit at 1 scholarship available this season, so if we use it on a multi year transfer then we would be sitting at 5 possible transfers+ attrition. So the next year has us possibly adding upwards of 33 scholarship players to the roster. It’s going to be a huge year for roster building.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back