Illinois at Penn State, Saturday, September 28th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

#251      
bkocain
It looks like we have an X-factor for game day: Hurricane Helene. The stats show that PSU has the advantage in the running game, but in the rain? It’s anyone’s guess. This could turn into a battle in the trenches. Run wild baby!!
 
#254      
orange100
IlliniKat91 said:
I have a white script Illinois hoodie (like the basketball team's jerseys) that I adore.

I would absolutely shell out $80 for another one that had the Illinois stiched on instead of screen printed.
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When the baseball team went on their run last spring I went to gameday to see if they had the baby blue baseball jersey and wow- feeling that cheap silkscreened trash they called a jersey was so disappointing.
 
#256      
TheChief4Life
I' trying to wrap my head around how people think a 19 point victory is likely... then I saw a video where someone was predicting scores for this weekend and had 38-17 Penn State and realized that I could actually see that happening...

I don't think it will, but it's not out of realm of possibility.

Head pick: PSU 30-Ill 21
Heart Pick: ILL 28-PSU24
 
#260      
HensonHall71
skyIdub said:
This is what I love about college football. Nobody really knows if Luke's jump is as real as it looks right now. Nobody really knows how good our WR room is or can be. There is just so many unknowns

When a college QB makes a huge leap from one year to the next, he is going to win games that you may have thought we didn't have a realistic chance. (Hi Nebraska!)

This includes the national media and predictors going off of previous performance metrics. It only tells you so much.

Luke has clearly made a jump. The WR room is clearly a difference maker. We'll know just how big soon enough.:illinois:

(And yes...the bold is me trolling myself!:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:)
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I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
 
#261      
Ander1345
HensonHall71 said:
I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
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Playing in the same system for multiple years really helps. It's overlooked given how high profile QB transfers are, but multiple year starter is so underrated and possibly will even be forgotten as the game goes on.
 
#262      
TheChief4Life
HensonHall71 said:
I actually don't think this season is about a significant jump in Luke's capabilities - his performance is better, but looking deeper it seems most of that can be explained by keeping him clean at a much higher rate - the advanced PFF stats seem to indicate he's similar to last year in he's bad under pressure but really good when kept clean.

Last year the Oline was a dumpster fire early in the season, and he was sacked 34 times which was one of the highest in the country. So, it's not that he's getting the ball out quicker or being more accurate - he's simply been getting the time to throw and that has made all the difference.

The good news is - to buy into our offensive success this year, you don't have to believe Luke is a completely different QB this year (he's not) you simply have to believe this OLine is for real and will keep him clean at a high rate this year
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I agree with this as well. I think he's only been sacked 7 times this year thus far, and I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that like 3 to 5 of those have been self-inflicted sacks (as in, the OLine did their job; Luke just held on to the ball way longer than he should have). The Oline seems completely on a different level this year. I think this weekend's game will be huge in determining if that's still legit.
 
#263      
SampsonRelpenk
This such an interesting game. How much can you take away from last year's matchup given all the turnovers we committed, their new OC, and our much-improved defense? It's a fact that we're a better team than we were in 2023, can you say the same about Penn St yet? Can't wait.
 
#265      
Krombopulos_Michael
Reading some of the coverage on this game as well as the PSU fan comments you’d think Illinois was 0-4. My goodness. Maybe they (Vegas included) know something we don’t. I just don’t see it being a guaranteed blowout.
 
#267      
kyillinifan
The def has to keep an eye on Tyler Warren. The D line has to play their best and no long runs up the middle. It will bea long Saturday until game time.
 
#271      
Piotyr
The line continues to be bizarre to me. Sure, Texas beat Michigan by 18 earlier in the year, but even that felt like more of a beatdown than we'll see in this game.

I'd much more expect PSU to be about 10 points better than Illinois on a neutral field, so give them 3 more points for being at home and that's still 13, 5-6 points shy of the actual line. Plus, Bielema has never lost on the road to a ranked team by more than 10. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but of the potential outcomes, I'd put "PSU wins by 3 touchdowns" far down the list of likeliness. Here's how my head thinks:

30%: PSU wins by 11-17 points
30%: PSU wins by 1-10 points
20%: ILL wins by 1-10 points
15%: ILL wins by 11-17 points
3%: PSU wins by 18+
2%: ILL wins by 18+
 
#272      
doowink
Looks like rain throughout the game on Saturday....taking care of the ball will be crucial (as it is with most games).....but especially if weather is a little nasty
 
#275      
altgeld88
TheChief4Life said:
I' trying to wrap my head around how people think a 19 point victory is likely... then I saw a video where someone was predicting scores for this weekend and had 38-17 Penn State and realized that I could actually see that happening...

I don't think it will, but it's not out of realm of possibility.

Head pick: PSU 30-Ill 21
Heart Pick: ILL 28-PSU24
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I was scanning the weekend games and noticed that unranked VA Tech @ #7 Miami had a lower spread (-17.5) in favor of Miami than PSU's v. us (now -19.5.)

I've seen VT play twice this season and they seem easily inferior to the Illini. Perhaps they match up much better v. Miami than we do v. PSU? Gotta say it baffles me.
 
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