Illini Football 2024

#76      
Chiieeff
lstewart53x3 said:
Very likely losses: @PSU, @Oregon
Likely loss: Michigan
Toss ups: @Rutgers, MSU
Likely win: Minnesota
Very likely wins: Purdue, Northwestern

Split the very likely’s: 2-2
Split the likely’s: 1-1
Split the toss ups: 1-1

8-4.
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Oh Yeah Yes GIF
 
#85      
mhuml32
SP+ middle-class is Big Ten heavy (evergreen statement)

18. Iowa (up 5)
21. Washington (up 5)
30. Indiana (up 10)
31. Nebraska (down 7)
35. Maryland (up 8)
41. Rutgers (same)
43. Illinois (up 3)
47. Minnesota (down 15)
53. Wisconsin (down 3)


Interesting to see Illinois and Rutgers winning upsets by spread and SP+ projections, both having high PGWE, but not moving as much as others.
 
#86      
lstewart53x3
mhuml32 said:
SP+ middle-class is Big Ten heavy (evergreen statement)

18. Iowa (up 5)
21. Washington (up 5)
30. Indiana (up 10)
31. Nebraska (down 7)
35. Maryland (up 8)
41. Rutgers (same)
43. Illinois (up 3)
47. Minnesota (down 15)
53. Wisconsin (down 3)


Interesting to see Illinois and Rutgers winning upsets by spread and SP+ projections, both having high PGWE, but not moving as much as others.
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Maybe because Kansas has struggled?
 
#87      
ChiefGritty
Mr. Tibbs said:
in our history since Grange graduated , it would be a top 5 season if we go 9-3 this year
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We have 9 Big Ten titles (and two claimed national titles) since Grange graduated. And that doesn't include the great seasons of 1989 or 2007.

"Illinois is bad at football" is a narrative that didn't exist until the early 1990's, when Guenther and his media minions set about building up the legend of the slush fund scandal to excuse the destruction of the 3.5th best football program of the historic Big Ten.
 
#88      
Fighter of the Nightman
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Someone asked previously about when the most recent TV ratings come out (usually posted some time mid-week on this site), and I will be curious to see how our game vs. Nebraska compares. While FOX started its Friday night games last week, here are some other Friday ratings so far through Week Three:

2.58 million for #20 Arizona at #14 Kansas State (FOX)
1.65 million for Temple at #16 Oklahoma (ESPN)
1.49 million for TCU at Stanford (ESPN)
1.32 million for UNLV at Kansas (ESPN)
963k for Western Michigan at Wisconsin (FS1)
917k for BYU at SMU (ESPN2)
744k for FAU at Michigan State (BTN)
514k for Duke at Northwestern (FS1)
142k for Western Illinois at Indiana (BTN)
...

So, I would not be surprised if the Illini/Nebraska game outdraws Arizona/KSU.
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Friday's Illinois/Nebraska game draws 4.21 million viewers - approximately 63% higher than the previous week's Friday night FOX game featuring #20 Arizona and #14 Kansas State. I would expect a pretty damn good rating for Illini/PSU on Saturday night, so let's hope we treat those viewers to another #Roadkill upset!
 
#89      
Fighter of the Nightman
ChiefGritty said:
We have 9 Big Ten titles (and two claimed national titles) since Grange graduated. And that doesn't include the great seasons of 1989 or 2007.

"Illinois is bad at football" is a narrative that didn't exist until the early 1990's, when Guenther and his media minions set about building up the legend of the slush fund scandal to excuse the destruction of the 3.5th best football program of the historic Big Ten.
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Thank you for pointing this out! Obviously, it would be one of our best seasons since the early 1990s, but as you said ... things went downhill fast during that time period.
 
#91      
mhuml32
ChiefGritty said:
We have 9 Big Ten titles (and two claimed national titles) since Grange graduated. And that doesn't include the great seasons of 1989 or 2007.

"Illinois is bad at football" is a narrative that didn't exist until the early 1990's, when Guenther and his media minions set about building up the legend of the slush fund scandal to excuse the destruction of the 3.5th best football program of the historic Big Ten.
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Wanted to look this up. Going by Simple Rating System (SRS), the current season is the 21st best Illinois season since Grange graduated. For you historians, here's the top 5:

(1) 1951 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent of the 1970 Ohio State national champs)
(2) 1946 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent to 2015 Alabama national champs)
(3) 1953 Big Ten co-champs (Equivalent to 2014 Ohio State national champs)
(4) 1963 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent to 2023 Penn State)
(5) 1950 (Equivalent to 2002 Ohio State national champs)


Here's the ranking of the best SRS teams in last 30 years - keep in mind the current team is 1/3 of the way through the season so much will change.

(1) 1994 Liberty Bowl (7-5)
(2) 1989 Citrus Bowl (10-2)
(3) 2001 Big Ten Champs (10-2)
(4) 2024 Team (!) (4-0)
(5) 1999 Micron PC Bowl (8-4)
(6) 2022 ReliaQuest Bowl (8-5)
 
#94      
Ramrod2010
mhuml32 said:
Wanted to look this up. Going by Simple Rating System (SRS), the current season is the 21st best Illinois season since Grange graduated. For you historians, here's the top 5:

(1) 1951 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent of the 1970 Ohio State national champs)
(2) 1946 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent to 2015 Alabama national champs)
(3) 1953 Big Ten co-champs (Equivalent to 2014 Ohio State national champs)
(4) 1963 Rose Bowl Champs (Equivalent to 2023 Penn State)
(5) 1950 (Equivalent to 2002 Ohio State national champs)


Here's the ranking of the best SRS teams in last 30 years - keep in mind the current team is 1/3 of the way through the season so much will change.

(1) 1994 Liberty Bowl (7-5)
(2) 1989 Citrus Bowl (10-2)
(3) 2001 Big Ten Champs (10-2)
(4) 2024 Team (!) (4-0)
(5) 1999 Micron PC Bowl (8-4)
(6) 2022 ReliaQuest Bowl (8-5)
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Large gap between 2001 and Bret.
 
#96      
Illinijoe
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Friday's Illinois/Nebraska game draws 4.21 million viewers - approximately 63% higher than the previous week's Friday night FOX game featuring #20 Arizona and #14 Kansas State. I would expect a pretty damn good rating for Illini/PSU on Saturday night, so let's hope we treat those viewers to another #Roadkill upset!
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Impressive numbers! Unfortunately we are competing against Georgia and Alabama. If we weren’t, there would be pretty insane ratings but either way - this game will have a ton of viewers (many are sick of Alabama and Georgia). I was trying to think - this may be the most anticipated game since 2008 PSU? Just in terms of our ranking, crowd/environment, etc. Of course 2022 MSU and Purdue were big given our record and a chance to go to the big ten title but this just feels different.
 
#97      
Toews
Illinijoe said:
Impressive numbers! Unfortunately we are competing against Georgia and Alabama. If we weren’t, there would be pretty insane ratings but either way - this game will have a ton of viewers (many are sick of Alabama and Georgia). I was trying to think - this may be the most anticipated game since 2008 PSU? Just in terms of our ranking, crowd/environment, etc. Of course 2022 MSU and Purdue were big given our record and a chance to go to the big ten title but this just feels different.
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2022 MSU didn't really matter much for the Big Ten title. Losing to MSU basically just meant we would have had to beat a horrendous Northwestern team if we beat Purdue. 2022 Purdue was the big ten title basically. In terms of biggest games, you are probably right that this is probably the biggest game nationally since 2008 Penn State. Probably even bigger than that since we had already lost once. For the Big Ten Title and Indianapolis, 2022 Purdue would be hard to beat since it was essentially a Big Ten semifinal.
 
#98      
ChiefGritty
Illinijoe said:
Impressive numbers! Unfortunately we are competing against Georgia and Alabama. If we weren’t, there would be pretty insane ratings but either way - this game will have a ton of viewers (many are sick of Alabama and Georgia). I was trying to think - this may be the most anticipated game since 2008 PSU? Just in terms of our ranking, crowd/environment, etc. Of course 2022 MSU and Purdue were big given our record and a chance to go to the big ten title but this just feels different.
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I was going to say this was going to be the first time the whole college football world is zoomed in on us since the Rose Bowl, but with Bama-Georgia that isn't really true. It will probably be a lower TV rating than last week, albeit still a big audience and a big big game.

It is the first time an Illini game has had both teams ranked higher than 20 since the Rose Bowl.

(The 08 Mizzou opener was 6 vs 20 and was the biggest game of that weekend if I recall correctly)

Now, the last game we WON with this level of pregame attention on it? At Ohio State in 2001?
 
#100      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illinijoe said:
Impressive numbers! Unfortunately we are competing against Georgia and Alabama. If we weren’t, there would be pretty insane ratings but either way - this game will have a ton of viewers (many are sick of Alabama and Georgia). I was trying to think - this may be the most anticipated game since 2008 PSU? Just in terms of our ranking, crowd/environment, etc. Of course 2022 MSU and Purdue were big given our record and a chance to go to the big ten title but this just feels different.
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Yeah, that will definitely dilute it a little, but as you said ... there will still be a ton of viewers. I'm still trying to make up my mind 100% about this, but I question what percentage of each game's viewers are from the following buckets:

1. Team A's fans
2. Team B's fans
3. Casual fans who intentionally tuned into that matchup
4. Casual fans who wandered onto that channel and/or were just always going to watch a game on that channel

It would be fascinating to try to guess, though I am sure it varies depending on the channel, game time and matchup. As for your second point, it is difficult for me to remember how hyped people were at that point in 2008. I know we were still ranked and thought we would be good, but I vaguely remember some worrying after our very close 20-17 win at home vs. Louisiana-Lafayette the week before!
 
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